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Four MLB betting tips for Monday, May 3rd, 2021.
All tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP | wRC+ | Rank | wRC+ L14 | Rank | Bullpen | Rank | BP L14 | Rank | Park | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD | Walker Buehler | 3.08 | 119 | 1 | 111 | 4 | 100 | 11 | 99 | 15 | |
| CHC | Kyle Hendricks | 8.32 | 106 | 10 | 97 | 16 | 104 | 17 | 104 | 18 | 98 |
Kyle Hendricks has had two starts this year where he gave up seven runs, both against the Braves, and now he gets to face this offense. The Dodgers are the top offense in the league thus far and they are especially good against right handed pitchers. This could be a rough one for the Cubbies.
Walker Buehler has a 3.16 ERA/3.08 FIP early in the season which is right in line with his projections.
Pick: Bet Dodgers -0.5 First 5 Innings (-135)
Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twins Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP | wRC+ | Rank | wRC+ L14 | Rank | Bullpen | Rank | BP L14 | Rank | Park | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEX | Dane Dunning | 2.23 | 91 | 28 | 98 | 13 | 104 | 17 | 89 | 7 | |
| MIN | Kenta Maeda | 6.2 | 111 | 4 | 109 | 6 | 107 | 20 | 115 | 23 | 99 |
This is a surprising pick, but it’s what the numbers bear out. Dane Dunning has been the much better pitcher than Maeda early and the Rangers offense has been strong against right-handed pitching.
Dunning has been great early with a 3.97 ERA/2.23 FIP. Big strikeout numbers and he’s keeping his walks down. The kind of starter we like to back.
Maeda is coming off back to back awful starts. Five runs allowed and then seven runs allowed, three homeruns given up in each game. He’s not a big strikeout guy and he gives up the long ball.
Pick: Bet Rangers First 5 Innings (+130)
Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Angels Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP | wRC+ | Rank | wRC+ L14 | Rank | Bullpen | Rank | BP L14 | Rank | Park | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBR | Tyler Glasnow | 1.7 | 102 | 15 | 98 | 13 | 100 | 11 | 89 | 7 | |
| LAA | Shohei Ohtani | 3.99 | 106 | 10 | 114 | 1 | 92 | 7 | 98 | 14 | 101 |
We’ve backed the Angels with Shohei Ohtani a few times, but every time he has struggled with control. He has great strikeout numbers, but he gives up a lot of walks and the Rays are a team that can really work the count. This is a tough match-up for Ohtani.
Glasnow goes for the Rays and he has been outstanding to start the season with a 1.67 ERA/1.70 FIP. The Angels are a very tough offense, but I think he can shine for the first two times through the order.
Pick: Bet Rays -120 First 5 Innings
Baltimore Orioles at Seattle Mariners Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP | wRC+ | Rank | wRC+ L14 | Rank | Bullpen | Rank | BP L14 | Rank | Park | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | Dean Kremer | 5.38 | 95 | 24 | 87 | 23 | 103 | 16 | 102 | 16 | |
| SEA | Erik Swanson | #N/A | 96 | 21 | 93 | 18 | 87 | 4 | 73 | 4 | 95 |
The system keeps spitting out the Mariners and I’m not sure why. It didn’t work out for us on Sunday, but the Orioles are a pretty juicy match-up. Kremer gives up a lot of walks and homeruns, and doesn’t strike many out. The Mariners offense is flawed, but they do work the count.
Erik Swanson is getting called up for this one and I’m not expecting much out of him. He’ll be out by the fifth and the Mariners bullpen will take over. That bullpen has been very good early and even better over the past two weeks. I think they are worth a bet here.
Pick: Bet Mariners -137
