MLB Opening Day 2022 Betting Tips

Welcome to the 2022 MLB season!

I’m pretty excited for this season as I’ve made some major improvements in the Bet MLB System that should lead to even more success.
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For those of you who are new to the site, the Bet MLB System takes starting pitching, offenses, park factors, left/right splits, home/road splits, bullpens, recent hot/cold streaks, and more into account to predict the games. Last year I added something I called KBH which compared homerun/strikeout/walk rates between offenses and pitchers. I was happy with the results of that and expanded that to include bullpens this season.

I’ve also improved the park factors to better account for the run scoring environment of the park and a weather adjustment feature to account for hot, cold, or windy games. I’m looking forward to put it to use starting today.
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For the 2022 season I will be posting tips on this website twice per week and then posting tips most other days on Patreon.

$11 per month gets you all of my MLB and NBA tips ad-free, as well as tips on Formula 1, golf, and much more.

The System is limited early in the season as we don’t have data on the 2022 yet. I am using a combination of ZiPs projections and 2022 stats. It works for now, but the System won’t be “fully operational” until May or June.

I’m posting these early, but I will update if there are any important pitching or line changes. It’s Opening Day so that seems doubtful and none of these games are likely to have weather issues. Any updates I will mention on twitter @MLBTips.

All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
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Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs Betting Tips:

MIL – Corbin Burnes 2.43 ERA/1.63 FIP (2021)
CHC – Kyle Hendricks 4.77 ERA/4.89 FIP (2021)

Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals Betting Tips:

CLE – Shane Bieber 3.14 ERA/3.58 FIP (2021)
KC – Zack Greinke 4.16 ERA/4.77 FIP (2021)

Neither one of these offenses inspires much confidence, but the Guardians is slightly better by the projections and the pitching is favors Cleveland in a major way.

Greinke had a 4.16 ERA/4.77 FIP last year and he’s now 38-years-old. His velocity has been slowly creeping down for years and I don’t see him beating father time and getting better this year. He’s solid, but he’s not scaring me.
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Bieber had an injury for much of 2021, but he came back and finished strong with a 3.14 ERA/3.58 FIP. The projections see him outperforming that and if he stays healthy I think he will.

Last season Bieber pitched in five games with temperatures below 50 degrees and had a 2.67 ERA/2.87 FIP.

Pick: Cleveland -125

Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels Betting Tips:

HOU – Framber Valdez 3.14 ERA/4.01 FIP (2021)
LAA – Shohei Ohtani 3.18 ERA/3.52 FIP (2021)
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This is one game that we don’t have to worry about playing as it is likely to be in the 80s (F) at first pitch. The game between the Angels and Astros should also be one of the more competitive of the day which fits our betting purposes.

As you can see above, both of these pitchers got somewhat lucky last year with their FIP being much higher than their ERAs. They both did it with a low BABIP (batting average on balls in play) and that is not the kind of thing I expect to carry over into this season. These are good pitchers, but each has a walk rate higher than most other pitchers going today.
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Both of these offenses look to be dangerous this season and I can see them starting the season like that. It won’t take much with the total set at 8.5. This is a good hitters park that I have in the top-seven for scoring. Nine runs total isn’t too much to ask for.

Pick: Angels/Astros Over 8.5 (-120)

San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Tips:

SD – Yu Darvish 4.22 ERA/3.90 FIP (2021)
ARI – Madison Bumgarner 4.67 ERA/4.63 FIP (2021)