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Welcome to a new season of the Bet MLB System.
I will be posting tips nearly every day this season on Patreon.
Sign up for our Patreon for all the NBA, MLB, golf, and F1 betting tips – it is currently FREE. We have no billing enabled until May 1st so you get the first month of the MLB season without paying a penny to decide whether it’s worth keeping or not.
For anyone new, this is a system I’ve developed that uses multiple stats to predict the average score of each game. We use stats like FIP, strikeouts, walks, homeruns, BABIP, StatCast hard hit and barrel rates for starting pitchers and bullpen. The system compares those numbers against the hitter’s wRC+, strikeouts, walk rate, homeruns, BABIP, and StatCast hard hit and barrel rates. We then filter it through factors like home/away splits, left/right splits, last two weeks, last thirty days, ballpark factors, and our new and improved weather system.
The weather system took ten years of historical data to break down how teams perform based on temperature and wind direction. The system now takes the projected score and adjusts it to the weather condition based on the stadium. (Wrigley Field, we’re looking at you.)
This first week of tips will be all based on the same data as all we have to really work with is projections. I will then begin sprinkling in year-to-date data as it happens. The projections will always be a part of the data, but the more in-season data we get, the less reliant on it the system becomes.
Before entering any weather data or looking at a sportsbook, I did a quick projection of the Opening Day lines using the Bet MLB System. I hit 13/15 totals within a half-run and 12/15 by -45 on the moneyline. Not bad. Now let’s find some value.
Reminder: All MLB tips are based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.
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Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs Betting Tips:
MIL – Corbin Burnes
CHC – Marcus Stroman
It’s going to be chilly, but the wind will be blowing out and this is the most wind-addled park there is. Burnes is great, but he did struggle last year on Opening Day at Wrigley Field which is worth keeping in mind.
Both of these bullpens are below average in the projections so this might hit late.
Brewers/Cubs Over 7.5 Runs (-104)
Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox Betting Tips:
BAL – Kyle Gibson
BOS – Corey Kluber
This total just seems a tad too high for a game that will be in the 40s. Both of these offenses are projected to be near average so it’s not like we’re seeing some superpowers facing off here.
The best bet looks to be F5 under 5 runs. The system has it at 4.5 so we have some nice wiggle room there for a push.
Orioles/Red Sox Under 5 First 5 Innings (-120)
New York Mets at Miami Marlins Betting Tips:
NYM – Max Scherzer
MIA – Sandy Alcantara
Mets have a better starter, better bullpen, and better offense. What exactly am I missing here?
Mets to win (-117)
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Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros Betting Tips:
CHW – Dylan Cease
HOU – Framber Valdez
A nice pitching match-up, but the over might be the play here. This will be one of the warmest spots for baseball today which helps and I like the way the offenses match up. Last year’s White Sox were excellent against lefties while the Astros offense is one of the best around. The White Sox bullpen is about average by the projections.
A 4-3 game gets us a push, but I think we can hit that over.
White Sox/Astros Over 7 Runs (-123)
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