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Welcome to the 2025 MLB season!
It’s Opening Day so I have coverage of every single game on the Sharp Baseball Patreon. I also posted a DFS Report, a daily dive into what teams and pitchers look good in daily fantasy baseball.
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Five bets today, two are available below.
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Milwaukee Brewers at New York Yankees Betting Tips:
MIL – Freddy Peralta
NYY – Carlos Rodón
Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers Betting Tips:
BOS – Garrett Crochet
TEX – Nathan Eovaldi
Crochet can make me look stupid here, but this looks like a good over because both offenses have the potential to be very good this season.
I have doubts that Crochet will go beyond four innings today. He certainly has the stuff, but I’m not sure he’s stretched out enough, and this offense will make him work.
The Red Sox bullpen needs to prove itself this season. Chapman is the closer, but he’s erratic and getting older. Liam Hendricks’ velocity is down and did not look great in spring. After that, who knows? I will take the Rangers offense against this group as it stands.
Eovaldi’s longest start this spring was four innings. He could go five, but I doubt it. He’s also a guy I have some doubts about this year as he enters his age-35 season. I think he’s more hittable than in the past, and the bullpen behind him was bottom-five in the league last year after also struggling for much of 2023. I don’t trust them and Boston has the guys to take advantage.
I like both offenses here. Each has some real length to their lineups which can lead to a lot of runs scored in a hurry.
Red Sox/Rangers Over 7.5 Runs (-116)
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New York Mets at Houston Astros Betting Tips:
NYM – Clay Holmes
HOU – Framber Valdez
Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals Betting Tips:
CLE – Tanner Bibee
KCR – Cole Ragans
This game was all over the DFS Report as it is the best hitting spot of the day. Temperatures in the mid-70s with winds blowing out, this is by far the best outdoor weather of the day in baseball. Kaufmann Stadium already plays as a hitter’s park so we should see a boost to the offenses here.
Ragans is a starter that I like quite a bit. He had a 3.14 ERA/2.99 FIP last season, a 3.40 ERA/2.86 FIP at home, and a huge 10.77 K/9 rate. Ragans is a K machine, but walks are also an issue. Cleveland is above-average in walks, and average to below-average in everything else, so they might be able to cause an early exit here.
Bibee is a very good pitcher, just not elite at any skill. On a day like today, I think his high flyball rate could be an issue. The Royals offense is also roughly average to below-average, but they have Bobby Witt Jr. who fixes a lot of problems. I should also note that KC was much better at home last season with a .320 wOBA compared to a .295 on the road.
Guardians/Royals Over 7.5 (-110)
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Athletics at Seattle Mariners Betting Tips:
ATH – Luis Severino
SEA – Logan Gilbert
