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Sunday brings the NASCAR Dixie Vodka 400 from the Homestead-Miami Speedway this Sunday at 3:30 Eastern time. We’ve had some decent success with NASCAR as of late so we are focusing on this event right now. This is a landmark race as it will be the first sporting event with fans in the crowd since the coronavirus shutdowns started. There will be a 1,000 fans in the stands with this one and the crowd will be made up of first responders and military members.
It’s been a newsworthy week for NASCAR with the banning of the Confederate flag from all of their events. Despite a few stupid people, it’s been well received and considered long overdue with many drivers speaking up in support of the ban. Did you know that the Confederate states only existed for four years, from 1861 to 1865? And that the flag you think of as the “Confederate” or “Rebel” flag was only introduced in 1865 just before the end of the war? That’s not history, it’s a footnote. Burn them all.
This will be a unique event as over the past 17 years, this track hosted the final race of the season. Every NASCAR race is competitive, but the final race of the season always holds a different weight. Toyota has been the top automaker here in recent history with two wins in the past three races and four wins over the past seven. This has also been a favorites race with six of the past seven winners starting in the top-5. However, I wonder how much that has to do with it being the final race of the year as teams are likely more protective in that scenario.
We’ve been doing well betting NASCAR lately so let’s keep that going here. I’ll be posting three winners picks and then a prop that I think looks good.
NASCAR Dixie Vodka 400 Betting Tips:
Chase Elliot +800: Chase got a win a few weeks ago for us and has since finished 5th and 8th over his past two races. He’s been running well all season and he has a strong history here. He’s never had a win here, but he has some great stats. His 9.50 Average-Finish Position (AFP) is second best in the field among drivers with at least four starts and he’s never finished lower than 15th here.
Kevin Harvick +400: I hate going with the favorite, but Harvick deserves it here. He’s 1st in the Cup Series standings right now and is coming off a win two weeks ago. He has the top AFP in the sport right now and has never finished lower than 20th at this track. He’s worth a play right now.
Denny Hamlin +1000: This is a bet on history more than recent running. Denny has two wins, four top-5 finishes, and ten top-10 finishes in 15 starts at Homestead-Miami.
Under 6.5 Cautions: The last three races here have gone under this number on cautions and it doesn’t seem like the weather will be an issue here. The Supermarket Heroes 500 had a ridiculous 17 cautions, but the last two races have been down and I think that trend continues here.
