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Last weekend in NASCAR we saw Cole Custer take the shocking win at the Quaker State 400. The win was Custer’s first Cup win and it was the first time a rookie regular had won in the NASCAR Cup Series in nearly four years. It happened on a late Lap 266 restart where Custer took his shot and got to the top. It was a major unexpected win and the first major underdog win in a long, long time. I don’t know when the next time we are going to see something quite like that.
So, no, we did not have Cole Custer in our betting tips last week. If anyone did, they are lying.
This week’s race is the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 that takes place at the Texas Motor Speedway. Last year’s race was won by Denny Hamlin, his second win. Kyle Busch is the all-time leader here with three wins here, the most recent coming in 2018. Jimmie Johnson and Joey Logan also hold wins here.
Kevin Harvick is a big favorite once again. He finished third in the All-Star race on Wednesday and has two wins over his last five races with a 2nd and a 4th place finish to round it out. He’s a favorite here for good reason as he’s placed in the Top 10 in 12 of his last 13 starts at Texas Motor Speedway with eight of his last 11 being in the top four spots. I’m not looking at him to win here, but I won’t be surprised if he does.
Chase Elliot won on Wednesday and has been having a great season. I really like his price here, but he’s never won here before. Matt Kenseth is a driver who has done very well here in the past. He has his second-best average finishing position (9.47) and the second-best top-5 finishing rate (63.33 percent) at the Texas Motor Speedway and his odds are very favorable.
NASCAR O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 Betting Odds:
- Kevin Harvick +350
- Denny Hamlin +650
- Kyle Busch +650
- Chase Elliott +900
- Martin Truex Jr +900
- Ryan Blaney +900
- Brad Keselowski +1000
- Joey Logano +1000
- Aric Almirola +1800
- Jimmie Johnson +2500
- Kurt Busch +2500
- Alex Bowman +3300
- Erik Jones +3300
- Matt DiBenedetto +3300
- William Byron +4000
- Clint Bowyer +5000
- Christopher Bell +8000
- Tyler Reddick +8000
- Austin Dillon +10000
- Cole Custer +10000
- Matt Kenseth +10000
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr +12500
- Ryan Newman +12500
- Chris Buescher +20000
- Darrell Wallace Jr +40000
- John Hunter Nemechek +50000
- Ross Chastain +75000
- BJ McLeod +100000
- Brennan Poole +100000
- Corey LaJoie +100000
- Daniel Suarez +100000
- Garrett Smithley +100000
- Gray Gaulding +100000
- JJ Yeley +100000
- Joey Gase +100000
- Josh Bilicki +100000
- Michael McDowell +100000
- Quin Houff +100000
- Ryan Preece +100000
- Timmy Hill +100000
- Ty Dillon +100000
NASCAR O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 Betting Tips:
Denny Hamlin +650: Last year’s race winner looks like a solid bet here. He’s been running well of late. Over his last five races he has a win, a 2nd place, a 5th in the All-Star Race, a 12th, and a DNF. That back-to-back 12th and DNF has kind of taken him down a peg as Harvick has shone, but it’s not that long ago that he was running right with him. I can see him getting back in the mix here.
Martin Truex Jr. +900: Another driver with great talent, but inconsistent results. He finished second last weekend and has five top-12 finishes here since 2016. I like him slightly more than Chase Elliot at the same price.
Aric Amirola Top-3 Finish +550: A bit of a sleeper here, but he’s also the pole sitter. Amirola has six straight top-eight finishes, including fifth at Homestead and eighth at Kentucky last week where he lead for 90 laps. You can throw a bet on him to win at +1800.
Matt Kenseth Top-3 Finish +2500: His record here speaks for itself. He’s not having the best season, but this is a good value based on his history.
