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Welcome to Week 7 in the NFL season, and my NFL bets for this week.
It feels like we’re flying through the season and it’s been a fun one with some really great games.
Betting tips wise, things could be better. We had a rough start to the season, and then mostly treading water around .500 every week. A far cry from 2020 when I went 63-41 for a 65.57% win ratio, and in 2021 I went 56-43 for a 56.5% win ratio.
Currently at – I believe -5.8u although I need to double check the past couple of weeks on that. Honestly a few things in my personal life that have made me feel like I am running on fumes these past couple of weeks. Then to add to that, the NHL season is back so I’m busy all Saturday morning working on my free NHL tips at BetNHL.ca.
That wears me out so expect most NFL tips to be posted later on Saturdays going forward now. I could post right after NHL but my focus is gone at that point, and I’d be rushing through it. Best to take a few hours then sit down with a beer or two, turn on the Saturday night NHL action and focus on NFL.
At least the NFL has bye weeks going now so things are a bit calmer. And I’m pretty happy at nailing quite a few player props this season so far after some bad luck with that in previous years.
Let’s go through the games – confidence is 0.5u to 2u. As I’m treading water I generally lean towards 0.5u at the moment. Always best to limit the losses.
Bengals vs Falcons:
Bengals are 6.5 favourites at home to Atlanta. They had the win over the Saints last week, while the Falcons pulled off the big upset over the 49ers. Bengals are starting to remind me of last year where it’s hard to fathom them getting the results but here we are.
I feel like Bengals win the game, but I do like the Falcons here. A tad worried that after that big 49ers win, it’s a let down spot for them. But this is a team that are covering the spread, and their running game seems to be working decent enough with Mariota a big pat of that.
I can’t stop thinking about this being a let-down spot, but I just feel the season data so far suggests we gotta do at least 0.5u on Falcons +6.5.
Ravens vs Browns:
Ravens are also 6.5 favourites at home to Cleveland. They just lost to the Giants. A lot of close if underwhelming games. Browns just got destroyed by the Patriots in a shocker. Ravens passing D has improved the last couple of weeks. Browns meanwhile not great against the pass and are brutal in pass defense DVOA, so you’d think Lamar could do something good here. Then again you’d think that against the Giants and it didn’t work out there.
I’m going with 0.5u on Under 45.5 here. On paper the Browns running game should struggle. Should be a slow paced game. I don’t think this one will go over.
Cowboys vs Lions:
Quite the trend – the Cowboys are 6.5 point favourites at home to Detroit. Dak back. Lot of pressure on him here.
You know I’d say in theory, yeah Cowboys man this is a steal of a line. Especially considering the Lions last game. Everything on paper this should be huge for them and a great game for Prescott to come back to. But man just a big question mark. I just think of the gameplan and everything against the Bucs and it puts me off.
On paper I’d say Cowboys all day long but there are enough risks with Dak returning after playing solid with Cooper that I’m staying away. Plus Lions have had the bye week to reflect. If ASB is healthy, it looks like he could have a big game. Yeah I am staying clear.
Commanders vs Packers:
Washington are 4.5 point underdogs as they host the Green Bay Packers. Packers are such a hard team to back this season. Offensively you’re basically relying on Rodgers and them figuring out a good running game. Their running game really frustrates me. It’s about a 50/50 split but it just feels like they should be using Jones so much more.
Commanders last week man so awesome seeing Robinson get the TD last week. I’m going with 0.5u on Lazard anytime TD at 2.40. He’s been able to haul them in this season in 4 of the 5 games he has played. St-Juste and Fuller shouldn’t cause him too many problems. Washington loves to allow passing TDs.
Titans vs Colts:
The Colts are 2.5 point dogs on the road in Tennessee. Indianapolis got the big win over the Jags after that tight one over the Broncos. These two just played a few weeks ago and the Titans got the W there. They’ve had the bye week as well.
I feel like the Colts kind of have momentum going. But things have just been a bit tight lately for them, and it’s hard to back a team when they lost lost at home against the same opposition. No bet.
Jaguars vs Giants:
The great Tony Khan’s Jacksonville Jaguars are 3 point favourites against the New York Giants. Giants coming off that Ravens win and are a pleasant surprise this season. Jaguars had some bright spots but come in having lost their last three games.
This is like two game management QBs squaring off and I’m not sure Lawrence fits that role. Jags running D isn’t doing too great last couple weeks. However I am big time concerned about the Giants running D here. As Etienne gains more snaps, he’s gaining more trust and getting more yards out of it.
Panthers vs Buccaneers:
The tanking Carolina Panthers are 13 point dogs at home to Tampa. I usually never touch a point spead like this, but I’m going with 0.5u on the Bucs -13. They just gave up CMC. They’re done for the year. P.J. Walker in theory will get eaten alive. And after last week and all the drama with Brady yelling at the line – this is a team that is going to come out for blood. I’ve been down on the Bucs this season and for good reason but I think this is a great spot for them.
Raiders vs Texans:
The Houston Texans are 7 point dogs on the road in Vegas. Texans have proven to be a bit of a tough matchup this season really. The Raiders not once this season in every game I have watched, have they really given me any confidence to back them. They’re just one of those teams – even when they thumped the Broncos – that I just haven’t gained confidence to back. No bet here.
Broncos vs Jets:
The Russell Wilson-less Denver Broncos are 1.5 point underdogs against the New York Jets. That might be an upgrade at this point. Jets coming in with three wins in a row. But this is a nightmare matchup for Wilson. They will likely lean heavy on Breece Hall but the O/U is 70.5 and while Denver is tougher against the pass, it’s going to be a tight one. No bet.
49ers vs Chiefs:
The 49ers are 1 point underdogs as they host the Kansas City Chiefs. Absolutely no bet. I cannot figure out these 49ers at all, and I’ve aired my concerns about the Chiefs before. Worst thing is I’m watching it with one of my best friends who is a 9ers fan (instead of Rezone), so I’ll have to bet something on this game just for the entertainment. That in itself will be a gametime decision. Probably the Chiefs so I can cheer for them and jerk off over Mahomes like the commentators do.
Chargers vs Seahawks:
The Seahawks on the road are 5 point dogs against the Chargers. They’re coming in off that win over the Cardinals. It’s taken me awhile but I’m starting to get confidence in Geno. In saying that, this should be a great matchup for Herbert with him focusing more on shorter passes this year, and Seattle being very weak in that area.
Dolphins vs Steelers:
The Miami Dolphins are 7.5 point favourites in the Sunday Night Football game. Tua is back and I really hope he does okay and there are no further injuries. But I am happy to skip that one due to that.
I do think if you’re looking for a bet this one has the potential to go over. Dolphins should put up the points, and the Steelers have played some tough defenses. This is a lot easier for them and I think they should be able to keep up.
