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NBA betting tips for November 14th, 2023.
2-2 last night on Patreon. 44-36 this season.
W Celtics -9.5
L Damian Lillard Over 24.5 Points
W Jarrett Allen Over 10.5 Points
L Deni Avdija Over 10.5 Points
VOID RJ Barrett Over 18.5 Points
An even record, but a winning night.
Deni had 9 points by the third quarter and then nothing. Lillard did not have the shooting touch.
Two games and four props tonight.
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Atlanta Hawks at Detroit Pistons Betting Tips:
The Pistons are down bad right now with eight straight losses. All but one was by nine points or more. The only exception was a game against the Bucks where Milwaukee played without Giannis in the second half. They aren’t good.
The Hawks are pretty good I think. At least better than the last couple of seasons. They have a really good offense that ranks sixth in Offensive Rating, and I just don’t see them having the horses to keep up.
Trae Young is listed as questionable here, but I don’t think that matters. It balances a bunch of the Pistons injuries a bit. Plus, I like the offense when Murray is running the show.
Hawks -4
Los Angeles Clippers at Denver Nuggets Betting Tips:
In the four games since adding James Harden, the Clippers have a -11.6 Net Rating. That’s pretty bad! Tonight, they play the team that won last year’s NBA championship.
The Clippers just look completely lost. Not like they haven’t played together, like they have never played team basketball. I don’t think this will last forever, but I also don’t think they are suddenly going to figure it out against the defending champions. That’s before you consider that Denver is one of the toughest road games in the league.
The Nuggets will be without Jamal Murray for a spell which hurts. That said, they still have Jokic and I don’t see an answer for that on LA. Denver has won the last six match-ups between these teams.
Nuggets -4.5
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Player Props Betting Tips:
Mark Williams Over 11.5 Points: Williams is the system’s favorite play of the day. He’s hit this in four of his last five games. I think he’ll be on the court a lot with Bam on the other end. Last season he had one of the best games of his rookie season with an 18/20.
Jimmy Butler Under 34.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists: Butler has just one game this season where he’s beaten this total. The back court is thin right now for the Heat with Herro and Martin out, but I just don’t see the volume. This total is on the lower end of the day as well.
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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 43.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists: SGA has scored 30+ in four straight games, hitting this number in all of them. Tonight he faces a Spurs team that ranks 29th in Defensive Rating.
Brandon Ingram Under 36.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists: The Pelicans are a mess with injuries right now, but it has allowed teams to focus on Ingram to keep him quiet. I count just one game where he’s hit this number this season. His last game, also against Dallas, saw him finish at 30 PRA.
