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NBA tips for November 16th, 2022.
I took some time off from tips to watch, listen, and study the league as the early season is always tough. There’s a reason they call the Christmas games the unofficial start to the season. That’s when teams get the rotations right and start locking in so I’m taking a closer look at lineup data right now in addition to schedule and injury reports.
Four tips for tonight on Patreon, three are below. .
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Miami Heat at Toronto Raptors Betting Tips:
The Heat remind me of the Warriors a bit where I wasn’t sure if they were really giving things their full effort over the first few weeks of the season. A lot of teams will try different lineups, even ones they know are unlikely to work, early in the season just to see. They appear to be putting it together now though, having won their last three games.
The Raptors are in a bad spot right now. No Siakam hurts them and Precious Achiuwa is one of their top big men off the bench and he’s out as well. Now, Otto Porter Jr. is also out while Trent and VanVleet are listed as questionable. They are having to experiment with lineups in a different way and it is not working out very well for them.
Miami has their own injury issues, but as long as Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler are the lineup I think they can play well. The defense of Toronto has really struggled of late.
Heat +2
Cleveland Cavaliers at Milwaukee Bucks Betting Tips:
Nobody loves Giannis more than me, but he cannot do it alone. Middleton, Connaughton, Holiday, and Matthews are all out here and Grayson Allen is listed as doubtful.
The Cavs have lost four straight and should be motivated to get back on track here. Jarrett Allen is out and Donovan Mitchell is a game-time decision, but that’s not nearly as dire as the Bucks situation.
Both of these teams are known for their defense and rank in the top-3 in Defensive Rating. However, both are missing key pieces. I think we could see a higher score here. The Wolves went wild offensively on Cleveland last game without Allen and the struggles without him defensively date back to last season. The Bucks have given up some big points in their games without Holiday this season as well.
I am going with a Bucks prop here as well. The shorthanded nature should mean that a bigger scoring load will put on Brook Lopez. Without Allen defending him, I think he can have a big night.
Cavs/Bucks Over 218
Brook Lopez Over 14.5 Points
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New York Knicks at Denver Nuggets Betting Tips:
