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NBA betting tips for November 29th, 2023.
2-2 last time.
L Thunder/Wolves Over 229
W Rockets/Mavs Over 228.5
W Clint Capela Over 18.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists
L Jaylen Brown Under 32.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists
I hate to go 2-2 when I mention four teams that I liked but wasn’t betting, and all four cover easily. If you ever wonder why I sometimes do too many plays, there’s your answer.
Thunder/Wolves was a very physical, defensive game. Was that because of the in-season tournament? It’s hard to say, but I think those teams are just good. It didn’t end up mattering as the Kings took care of business to win their group.
That tournament has been good for games and teams playing to their potential. I am excited for the next round on Monday and Tuesday to see if that feels more playoff-like. I think it will.
I like the Suns if Durant plays, but he’s missed the last two and is listed as questionable so I’ll be skipping that here.
Three bets and three props tonight.
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Philadelphia 76ers at New Orleans Pelicans Betting Tips:
I am a Pelicans supporter, but they aren’t on the level of the Sixers right now.
New Orleans just doesn’t have enough shooting. They’ll get a boost as McCollum returns from a collapsed lung. It’s hard to say how the recovery will be from an injury like that as breathing is a pretty big part of basketball. It’s a big part of life too.
These two teams have almost the exact same Defensive Rating but the Offensive Rating is a different story as the Sixers are +8 higher. That should make the difference here.
Sixers -2.5
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Utah Jazz at Memphis Grizzlies Betting Tips:
No Markkanen for the Jazz tonight, but I still don’t think the Grizzlies should ever be favored by -4.5 given the state of things.
In addition to all the guys they were already missing, now Marcus Smart is out as well. Jaren Jackson Jr. has not looked good of late as he’s probably playing through an injury. He’s shot under 42% in his last seven games after shooting over 50% in six of the first nine games.
This game won’t be pretty and I don’t recommend watching it, but I’m taking these points.
Jazz +4.5
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Houston Rockets at Denver Nuggets Betting Tips:
I got burned last time taking the Nuggets over the Rockets but I don’t see history repeating itself here.
The Rockets are playing back-to-back here and traveling to Denver is one of the toughest things to do in the NBA.
The Nuggets woke up after that loss and have won their last two by double-digits. Jokic has really been going off of late.
Jamal Murray, Gordon, and Jokic are listed as questionable here. As long as Jokic is in, I am taking this and pairing it with a Jokic prop.
This is a game where you should wait for an injury update before placing.
Nuggets -7.5 (If Jokic plays)
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Player Props Betting Tips at 0.5 Units:
Franz Wagner Over 30.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists: Wagner is coming off a thirty-point game and that will be where he gets most of this tonight. His scoring is kind of erratic, but he’s attempting 17 shots per game this month and I think a lot of them are going to go in tonight.
The Wizards are an awful team with an awful defense that is allowing the highest amount of points per game to opposing small forwards.
Brandon Ingram Over 33.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists: CJ McCollum comes back tonight, but who knows what he’ll look like or how many minutes he’ll play. Ingram has been putting up numbers of late, beating this number in four of his last five and seven of his last ten.
Nikola Jokic Over 48.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists: Jokic is in one of his “I am the best basketball player in the world” moods right now. He has posted at least 30 points, 11 rebounds, and 8 assists in each of his last three games. That includes a 38/19/8 game against Houston last Friday. He also had a 36/21/11 game against them earlier this month.
If he plays, I expect some big numbers.
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