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NBA Betting Tips for November 4th, 2024.
2-1 last time. 8-5 this season.
W Celtics Over 121.5
W Cavs -7
L Pacers -4.5
I argued between the Pacers and Pacers Over 118 and went with the spread play. The final score was Pelicans 125, Pacers 118. Ouch.
The NBA is loading up the schedule today with all thirty teams in action as they take tomorrow off for the election. I get the idea of it, but I’d much rather have some games tomorrow than all the endless talking that election night brings.
It’s been a solid start to the NBA season on Patreon after an incredible MLB season. I will be covering NBA for the next few months there if you’d like to follow along.
A big slate tonight and nothing tomorrow so let’s go big with five picks.
Milwaukee Bucks at Cleveland Cavaliers Betting Tips:
I was kicking myself on Saturday for not writing tips when I saw these two teams matched up as I would’ve been all over the Cavs for that one.
The Bucks gave their best shot with Giannis and Dame combining for 75 points, but they still couldn’t get it done.
I don’t see that 75-point output repeating here and the Cavs offense should play much better at home than it did in that road match-up. They’ve only played three home games thus far, but they were all wins and the last two saw them score over 120 points.
Milwaukee’s defense has bled three-pointers thus far this season and the Cavs offense has been one of the best at that. I think they fill it up from deep tonight in another win. 118 should be easy to clear when they make 15+ threes.
Cavs Over 117.5 Points
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Los Angeles Lakers at Detroit Pistons Betting Tips:
I never know just how good the Lakers are, but they are a team that wins the games they are supposed to win. They dominated the Pistons in three match-ups last season and finished 20-10 against the Eastern Conference. This year’s team is better so I don’t see that changing here.
The Pistons are playing their third game in four nights and the second half of a back-to-back today. Their defense has not been great this season and their offense is probably worse. This will be one of the worst teams in the league before it’s all said and done.
This is probably the easiest match-up the Lakers have had thus far this season and I think they take care of business here. A ten-point win feels doable.
Lakers -7.5
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Boston Celtics at Atlanta Hawks Betting Tips:
Atlanta is another three games in four nights team, playing in New Orleans last night, and they are rewarded with a game against the NBA champions. I don’t see that going well for them.
The good news for Atlanta is that Jaylen Brown is out tonight, but does that really matter? This team has shown they have the talent and depth to roll through injuries.
Atlanta’s defense has been one of the worst in the NBA this season with at least 116 points allowed in six out of seven games. None of the offenses they’ve faced has been even close to the talent and efficiency of the Celtics.
Celtics Over 122
New York Knicks at Houston Rockets Betting Tips:
This game looks like it might be closer to a ’90s Knicks/Rockets game – physical and low-scoring.
These are two of the bottom three teams in PACE and two very good defenses.
Houston especially has played some real slugfests early with five of their six games allowing 110 points or less.
The Knicks defense has been right there with them over their last four games with 110 being the high points allowed total.
This game will be played at a snail’s pace with both teams asserting themselves on defense. 218 feels a bit too high for me.
Knicks/Rockets Under 217.5
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Indiana Pacers at Dallas Mavericks Betting Tips:
I was only going to go with four picks tonight, but I couldn’t skip this one.
The Pacers excelled last year thanks to an outstanding offense, but that offense has mostly been missing. They currently have a 117.1 Defensive Rating, which is in the bottom six in the league.
The Mavericks excelled last year with an outstanding defense that carried them to the Finals and that defense has been very much present thus far. Dallas’s offense has been about equal to Indiana’s thus far, but a Defensive Rating of 106.4 puts them in another stratosphere.
An offensive-minded team that isn’t scoring against a defense-first team that is dominating. It feels almost too easy.
Mavericks -5
