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MLB Playoff betting tips for October 19th, 2023.
2-1 last night on Patreon.
W Astros/Rangers Over 9 Runs
W Yordan Alvarez Over 2 Hits+Runs+RBIs
L Corey Seager Over 2.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
Last night showed why I have been down on the Rangers all along. Scherzer had predictable struggles, and the pitching got really shaky with a heavier load. They only need to win two more games so anything could still happen, but tonight should be interesting.
Two games today. Our main bets are available free below. For our player props, check out Patreon.
All MLB tips are based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
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Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Tips:
PHI – Ranger Suarez
ARI – Brandon Pfaadt
The clock is ticking on the Diamondbacks, but I just don’t see tonight being their night.
Suarez has been excellent in the playoffs thus far with a 1.02 ERA/3.72 FIP in his two starts. Considering those were against the Braves and this one is against an offense with a 92 wRC+ against lefties, I think he can show up big again. The Diamondbacks had no power against lefties in the regular season, ranking 25th in isolated slugging. Suarez has the best groundball rate of any pitcher going today and I think he’ll put up the best performance.
Pfaadt had a 4.22 ERA/4.35 FIP in the second half and offenses don’t get much hotter than the Phillies right now. He’s gone less than five in both starts so we should see a lot of bullpen here. That hasn’t worked out for them so far.
Really, both of these games should feature a lot of bullpen. With four teams left the Phillies bullpen has been the best, the Diamondbacks bullpen has been the worst, the Phillies offense has been the best, and the Diamondbacks offense has been the worst. How do you think this is going to go?
The Phillies Over 4.5 seems like a lock, and I’m tempted by the game over as well, but I’m just sticking with the Phillies. How can they lose? Honestly, I’m starting to wonder why I didn’t bet the sweep here.
Phillies Moneyline (-120)
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Phillies/Diamondbacks Player Props Bet at 0.25 Units:
Texas Rangers at Houston Astros Betting Tips:
TEX – Andrew Heaney
HOU – Jose Urquidy
This game should be interesting as I don’t have much faith in either of these starters and we should be seeing a heavy dose of bullpen on both sides. I have both pitchers set at four innings which might be generous.
Urquidy had a solid start against the Twins where he allowed just three hits in 5.2 innings, but two of them were home runs. This is a much friendlier hitting environment and a scarier opponent. Urquidy had a 5.29 ERA/5.38 FIP in the regular season.
Heaney worked out of the bullpen in the last round and in the later parts of the season. As a starter he had a 3.02 ERA/4.04 FIP/4.78 xFIP in his final 11 starts. A lot of luck with HR/FB rate which is unlikely to carry over in this match-up. He made three starts against the Astros this season, never making it past the fifth, and struggled with walks in all of them. The Astros were the third best team in baseball against lefties this season and had the second-highest slugging percentage. Walks will kill him if he gives them up.
The Rangers bullpen has been decent in these playoffs, but today will be the real stress test. We might see some names that have yet to appear in games and we’ll see exactly why their names haven’t been called on yet.
That said, the Astros haven’t exactly been on their game on that end and the Rangers offense can hit anyone.
The over is the play here as this one should top 10 runs. The System is right in line with this betting line, a coin flip with a slight advantage to the home team. This is probably not worth a bet on a side as this one will likely be decided between the 5th and 8th innings.
Astros/Rangers Over 9.5 Runs (-105)
Rangers/Astros Player Props Bet at 0.25 Units:
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