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It was a nice and easy win yesterday with our 3u play on Real Salt Lake over New England Revolution. Revolution can be one of those real bet buster teams but that didn’t happen here as Real Salt Lake dominated them and got a big 4-1 win.
Result wasn’t in doubt after 30 minutes and that was a nice relief.
Lost our 0.5u play of Millonarios vs Leones BTTS. Millonarios won that one 1-0 and it was a brutal performance from Leones who only mustled up 3 shots on goal. They usually get much more than that so that was frustrating.
We’re back with SPL Betting Tips this week using the new SPL Betting System factoring in a lot of stats and with a strong focus on xg etc. Only what the 3rd week of it? We’ve learned a lot including exercising caution and also not to go for any risky bets. Had a good time last time out so let’s keep it rolling. Let’s get to it:
SPL Betting Tips for October 20th, 2018:
Celtic vs Hibs – Over 2.5 goals, 2u. I’d been saying that Celtic were going to have a big win based on the stats and it finally happened with that 6-0 thrashing of St. Johnstone. Bad news for opponents is more goals are coming. Hibs are scoring goals but are 7.87 over their xG which is a signal that a drought is on the way. Interestingly Hibs goals have mostly been long range goals that are going in. I think they struggle to get in the box against the Tims however that just means more long range attempts. Either way really liking Over 2.5 goals at 1.72 odds.
Hearts vs Aberdeen – 0.5u on Draw: This is one where I have ran the numbers and I feel there is just enough value on the draw. Hearts are scoring at their expected rate so there’s no drought expected there. In saying that Aberdeen have had some solid wins away with draws vs Hibs and St Johnstone and a very narrow defeat against Celtic. Close game, two evenly matched teams, worth taking the draw. 3.20 odds.
Livingston To Win – 0.5u: This is a battle of a great defence and a horrible attack. Dundee have managed to score 3 goals in their last 2 games but aren’t convincing yet with an xG of 1.83 for those two games. Not convinced by them or their attack so will bet accordingly. I think Livingston can sneak a low scoring game. 1.85 odds.
Motherwell vs St. Johnstone – Both Teams to Score – 0.5u. Neither team really is lighting it up offensively at the moment and are in the bottom half of the league. However I believe defence wins out in terms of the bet as both have really bad defences.
Kilmarnock to win – 2u: St Mirren have the worst attack in the league and are going up against the third best defence. Looking at things I don’t see St Mirrens attack improving either and that’s not good for them. They also concede 2.13 goals per game and Killie are coming in hot scoring at a much higher rate than their xG(8.48 vs 14). Honestly it’s tempting to go Killie -1 but I’ll stick with Killie to win. 1.85 odds.
Rangers -1 for 1u: Rangers performances away are drastically different when at home however it’s sample size and their two 1-0 losses on the road were against the 1st and 3rd best defences in the league. They’re missing Lafferty but I do believe it’s going to be a comfortable game for the Gers. They’re coming off an amazing attacking performance against Hearts and I expect that to carry over into this game. 1.83 odds.
Here’s a cheeky double for you too. Rangers -2 and Kilmarnock -1 at 10.54 odds. Risking 0.5u on that too.
