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Four MLB System tips for October 8th, 2021.
A rough start to the first night of playoff action with an 0-2 record on overs. The Astros/White Sox one hurt the most as the Astros scored six runs on their own, but the White Sox only managed one. They had their chances.
Those results got me thinking and I did some tweaking to the System to account for the playoff environment. Honestly, I should’ve done this two days ago. The playoffs are simply a different game in a lot of ways so we shouldn’t be looking at them in the same way that we look at regular season games.
These are the changes I made:
- Sliced ten percent off an average start: We’ve already seen it in the Wild Card games, teams are not letting their starts go deep into games. Two times through the order, tops.
- Pitcher FIP- based on first 5 innings: This goes with the above adjustment. No need to judge a pitcher for what they do late if they aren’t going to pitch late?
- Bullpen FIP- is now High Leverage Bullpen FIP-: Why? Because it’s all high leverage in the playoffs. The Brewers got a boost here because the backend of their bullpen is so good.
- Last 14 days is now second half: Mentioned this before, but it is basically to account for trades, call-ups, etc. Also, it doesn’t matter what you did in a meaningless game a week ago in the playoffs.
- Took average offense down 14%: Less runs are scored in the playoffs, but I wasn’t sure how much I should go by. This article is a bit dated, but over ten years offense went down 14% regular season to playoffs. Good enough for me. In the regular season a 100 offense would score 4.53. Now, they would score 3.9.
Overs are much harder to come by now and I think this does a better job of simulating the amount of time starters pitch in games. Let’s start off the improved System strong with some wins.
All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.
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Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Giolito | 84 | 106 | 121 | 85 | 90 | 7 | 82 | 2 |
| HOU | 104 | 85 | 107 | 116 | 1 | 116 | 3 | |
| Framber Valdez | 88 | 54 | 93 | 121 | 84 | 3 | 95 | 12 |
| CHW | 98 | 100 | 114 | 109 | 3 | 109 | 6 |
The System has this as the closest game of the day with the Astros being favored by just 0.02 runs. That is not enough for me to pick them, even if I personally think they will win.
What’s interesting here is the System likes the White Sox better for the first five innings. Digging a bit deeper into the stats and it’s easy to see why. Giolito was actually much better on the road this season with a 3.05 FIP. While Valdez was actually worse at home with a 4.17 FIP.
The big difference though is the pitcher handedness match-up. The White Sox had an outstanding 113 wRC+ against lefties on the season. The Astros had a 105 wRC+ against righties. That’s a big bump for the Sox and when you throw in the better starter, I’m going to back them for the five inning play.
Pick: Bet White Sox First 5 Innings
Canada: Best Odds: 1.94 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -106 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.94 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/10/07 10:39:20 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Morton | 75 | 63 | 123 | 86 | 101 | 16 | 93 | 9 |
| MIL | 95 | 108 | 105 | 91 | 23 | 98 | 16 | |
| Corbin Burnes | 36 | 31 | 153 | 58 | 88 | 5 | 105 | 21 |
| ATL | 112 | 108 | 99 | 98 | 12 | 100 | 14 |
The System likes the Brewers here because of course they do. Corbin Burnes is the best starter in all of the playoffs. He is a strikeout machine and rarely allows homeruns. The Braves offense is almost exactly average so they aren’t going to be as big of a threat to him as some other teams might be later in the playoffs.
Charlie Morton is a solid pitcher and he draws a nice match-up here. The Brewers offense is probably the weakest in the playoffs with a 92 wRC+ against right handed pitching. That said, it’s not going to take much to get it done here.
I had a brief pause when I noticed that Burnes’ worst start of the season came against the Braves when he allowed five runs against them on July 31st in Atlanta. I dug a bit deeper into that game and it was 91 degrees Fahrenheit and humid. That is a completely different run scoring environment than Wisconsin in October.
We’re going five innings here, laying the half run. All it will take is one run to get the win here. I’m not sure I believe in any other part of his team, but I believe Burnes will show up big here.
I would also lean under for the entire game, but it is just short of where I would tip that.
Pick: Bet Brewers -0.5 First 5 Innings
Canada: Best Odds: 1.9 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -110 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.9 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/10/07 10:39:20 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Sale | 74 | 105 | 115 | 63 | 84 | 2 | 101 | 18 |
| TBR | 110 | 108 | 111 | 109 | 3 | 120 | 1 | |
| Shane Baz | 99 | 132 | 160 | 31 | 86 | 4 | 89 | 6 |
| BOS | 111 | 99 | 99 | 107 | 6 | 112 | 4 |
This is another game where the System likes one team overall and another team for the first five innings with the Rays being a slight favorite overall, but the Red Sox being the better early pick.
I am all over the Red Sox as an early pick. When Chris Sale is on, he’s one of the very best pitchers in the game. I think he will be on today.
Shane Baz is a rookie who only made two starts. He was about average and his projections show him being worse than average. Homeruns were an issue and the Red Sox are one of the best homerun hitting teams in the playoffs. I don’t see him going more than a couple of innings here, but the Sox should be able to get some good match-ups early. Let’s hope they take advantage of them.
Pick: Bet Red Sox First 5 Innings
Canada: Best Odds: 2.08 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: +108 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 2.08 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/10/07 10:39:20 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walker Buehler | 75 | 67 | 112 | 72 | 81 | 1 | 89 | 6 |
| SFG | 112 | 106 | 106 | 108 | 5 | 109 | 6 | |
| Logan Webb | 60 | 47 | 113 | 71 | 93 | 9 | 85 | 3 |
| LAD | 108 | 101 | 107 | 106 | 7 | 105 | 9 |
I know how good the Dodgers are, but it makes no sense to me that they are the favorite here. The Giants are at home, have the better starter on the mound, and the better offense. Yes, the margins are razor thin on all of those numbers, but that doesn’t mean those numbers don’t exist.
Walker Buehler was one pitcher that didn’t get as big of a boost for limiting to five innings. For some reason, his second time through the order has been rough for him this season. The Giants have seen him six times this season. The first five, he was great. The sixth saw him give up six runs. Bad night or did they figure something out? The Giants have a 110 wRC+ against righties.
Logan Webb was incredible at home this season with a 2.35 FIP. He had three starts this season against the Dodgers, never allowing more than two runs or three hits. The Giants bullpen gets a huge boost from the second half.
Pick: Bet Giants Moneyline
Canada: Best Odds: 2.06 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: +107 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 2.06 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/10/07 10:39:20 AM EST but are subject to change.)
