PATREON UNLOCKED: April 8th, 2022 NBA + MLB Betting Tips

Two NBA tips and two MLB tips for April 8th, 2022.

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1-2 on NBA last night. 100-68 for the season.

Milwaukee Bucks at Detroit Pistons Betting Tips:

The Pistons currently have the third worst record in the league which gives them a 52.1% chance of a top-4 pick and a 14% chance at the number one pick. If they drop to the fourth seed, those numbers drop to 48% and 12.5%. The point being they don’t want to win this game.
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If the Bucks win the rest of their games they will be the #2 seed in the Eastern Conference. They are a great home team and were 10-1 at home in the playoffs last season. They want as many home games as possible in the Playoffs and they are not the type of team that will lose on purpose to get seeding.

This is an easy pick to make.

Pick: Bucks -5

Cleveland Cavaliers at Brooklyn Nets Betting Tips:

This is the biggest Nets game of the season thus far. A win won’t change their seeding, but a loss could put them in the 9/10 zone if the Hawks also win. This game also matters to the Cavaliers as they are currently in the 7th spot which means they will be the home team in a potential play-in game.
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The Nets are a big favorite here and I won’t be surprised if they win, but they might be too big of a favorite. This hasn’t been a great against the spread team this season and the Cavaliers should have Evan Mobley back for this match-up.

Brooklyn is weak particularly weak against guards and I expect Darius Garland and Caris LeVert to make a game of this one.

Pick: Cavs +8.5

New York Mets at Washington Nationals Betting Tips:

NYM – Max Scherzer 2.46 ERA/2.97 FIP (2021)
WAS – Josiah Gray 5.48 ERA/6.00 FIP (2021)

This will be Max Scherzer’s debut for the Mets and he’s going against his former team in a park he is very familiar with. The Natioanls have power, but the projections have them as an average to slightly below average team against right handed pitching.
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You can see how bad Gray was last season, but the projections think he’ll be better this year. I’ll believe it when I see it. He had high HR/9 and BB/9 rates last season which is exactly the kind of pitcher we like to target.

Pick: Mets -0.5 First 5 Innings (-115)

Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels Betting Tips

HOU – Jake Odirizzi 4.21 ERA/4.48 FIP (2021)
LAA – Reid Detmers 4.41 ERA/4.36 FIP (Projection)

These offenses let us down last night, but today should work out much better with two far worse pitchers on the mound.

Detmers only threw twenty innings last season and was hit pretty hard with a 4.79 BB/9 and 2.18 HR/9 rate. He shouldn’t be that bad this year, but this is also a very tough offense that is projected to hit lefties very well.

Odirizzi is the ultimate “fine” pitcher. None of his stats jump out and he is average across the board. The Angels should be a pretty good offense against righties this year and it’s hard to expect two straight quiet nights offensively from Trout and Ohtani.

Pick: Astros/Angels Over 4.5 First 5 Innings (-120)