Follow @SBTSportBetting [Get Exclusive Tips on our Patreon, Ad-Free]
After a couple of almighty highs, the free darts betting tips came down to earth with a bump yesterday, with a poor run that takes us to 23-26 and a profit of +0.25 units. It just wasn’t our night, so we have to get back on the horse, remember that we’re still in profit and make some money!
There won’t be any stats today, but they will be back in the next update. So, let’s get onto the tips!
Betfair have a lot of great markets and a lot of great value every year during the PDC World Championships. Head on over, get yourself a free bet and get stuck into the in-running betting. You’ll struggle to find a better place to bet during the PDC World Championships than Betfair.
Kevin Painter (22) versus John Part (27).
Kevin Painter, as John Part pointed out, is in the form of his life at the moment. He’s playing some great darts and has just looked unbelievably solid throughout the month of December. It’s amazing what confidence can do to a player. When Painter is lacking in confidence, he’s shocking. When he’s full of confidence, he’s fantastic. Painter’s win over the in-form Mark Walsh in the second round sums up just how well he’s playing. Painter is doubling well, he has no fear of any player now and I’m sure he thinks he can win this tournament.
John Part caused a bit of an upset when he beat Richie Burnett in the second round. While the result wasn’t that much of a shock, the manner in which Part won was: he was convincing! After a poor year, Part has looked comfortable on the Ally Pally stage this year and he’s looked back to some decent form.
All eyes will be on Kevin Painter here, as he’s the man of the moment in the PDC (aside from Dave Chisnall), and I can see why. Painter will have a lot of confidence coming in here, especially as he fought hard for his win over Mark Walsh, so he’s had a comfortable win along with a hard-fought win. Part has had two easy wins, he’s not had to scrap yet, so this match could be a shock for him. I can’t look past Painter here, but his price is about right. But the line of 125.5 for the highest checkout seems nice and low for two men that will be looking to fire in a few big checkouts.
Highest checkout in Kevin Painter versus John Part match over 125.5: 5/6 @
Recommend: 3 units.
James Wade (3) versus Steve Farmer.
There will be a lot of people out there thinking that the draw seems to be kind to James Wade every year. I would refer them to last year where he was eliminated early on by Mensur Suljovic. These matches might look comfortable on paper, but Wade has unique ways of losing just when you think he’s heading on to the greatest prize in the sport. But he was imperious against Jelle Klaasen in the previous round, and he’s up against the same level of player in the shape of Steve Farmer. Wade will be confident here, and if he can get around the 95-95 average again, he should win comfortably.
Steve Farmer fought hard for his win over Kevin Munch in the previous round, but he came through it 4-2, which is what people expected. His average of 84.89 is indicative of the performance, and he’ll have to up his game by ten points if he wants to compete here. Given that Farmer averaged just 87.43 in his first round match, he won’t be raising his game THAT much. He’ll be hoping James Wade just switches off during the match, and he can steal in at the right moment.
I can’t see past a comfortable James Wade win here. Wade has looked solid in his first two matches, his finishing has been decent, and his scoring has been good. Yes, the draw has been kind to The Machine, but he’s not played like a mug, and that’s the most important thing. As you would expect, Wade is a short, short price (1/10), so we won’t be going there. However, Wade on the handicap at -2.5 sets looks a solid prospect, so we’ll head there.
James Wade -2.5 sets versus Steve Farmer: 4/6 @ Betfair.
Recommend: 2 units.
Kim Huybrechts versus Paul Nicholson (9).
Kim Huybrechts has put in the performance of his career to make it to the third round of the PDC World Championship, but he’ll need to step his game up a bit if he wants to make the quarter-finals. It would be foolish to write Huybrechts off, especially when you consider he put in an average of just over 95 in his second round match, which helped him to a 4-1 win. The Belgian is playing some good darts, and although not flashy, he’s doing his thing and doing it well. He’s surprised people not au fait with darts and he’ll be boosted by his second round performance.
Paul Nicholson hasn’t been tested yet. He’s had two comfortable wins and he’ll be looking to make it three in a row. his average of over 97 against Alan Tabern got him to a 4-0 win and signalled him as a real challanger for the title. If he puts in that performance again, Huybrechts will struggle. Nicholson has had a solid year on the PDC Tour, and he has no fear taking on anyone on the circuit, so the Belgian will not scare him at all.
The key here is Nicholson’s consistency. It’s not often he puts in a stinker, and even his B-game is better than most players’ A-game, so even if he drops down a gear, he should still come through. But Huybrechts is no mug, so Nicholson might just be pushed a bit more than he was in the previous round. Around 1/4 for Nicholson is what you’re looking at if you want to back him, but that’s not for us. However, some bookies are giving Nicholson -1.5 sets on the handicap, which is very generous as far as I’m concerned, because I can’t see Huybrechts taking 3 sets.
Paul Nicholson -1.5 sets to beat Kim Huybrechts: 8/13 @ 888.com.
Recommend: 3 units.
Simon Whitlock (5) versus Michael van Gerwen.
Simon Whitlock battled through the pain to beat Steve Beaton. The worry here is what he said after the match in regards to his injury. if the adrenalin doesn’t work as well as it has done in previous rounds, Whitlock might just struggle to put in the same level of performance. If he can win 4-0, it won’t be a problem, but if Michael van Gerwen wins a couple of sets, Whitlock might just start to feel it. However, there’s no denying Whitlock’s performances have been great, and it’s just a shame he’s not 100% fit, as it would be championship winning form, as he’s battering in the maximums and the checkouts aren’t worrying him too much, either.
Michael van Gerwen has been a revelation. His 4-1 win over Mervyn King highlighted how great he’s playing, and how solid his scoring has been. The only worry is his doubling, but it’s not caused him too many troubles in his previous two matches, so until it starts to cause him trouble, we don’t need to worry two much. He’s a player playing with extreme confidence and he’s going to make this a tough match for his Aussie opponent.
If it wasn’t for Whitlock’s injury, I would have said the Aussie was a sure thing. He’s playing great darts and if he didn’t have issues that could cause him trouble over a longer format, he would be a lock to go deep. But he’s injured and he’s playing someone who’s not going to go down without a fight. The bookies have the total number of sets line at 5.5, which I think isn’t doing the Dutchman justice. While I think Whitlock should come good, two sets should be well within Van Gerwen’s reach, if not more.
Total number of sets in Simon Whitlock versus Michael van Gerwen match over 5.5: 5/6 @ 888.com.
Recommend: 3 units.
Dave Chisnall versus Andy Hamilton (17).
The conqueror of Phil Taylor put in a fantastic performance to get here, and Dave Chisnall will be on a high like no other. The worry is the bounce factor, in that he might not be able to follow up such a big win in a match that he’s expected to win. However, we shouldn’t concern ourselves too much with that, simply because Chisnall has been playing great darts and if he plays that well again, he’ll be in the quarter-finals. His scoring has been great and even his doubling, which can be dodgy at the best of times, has held up under pressure.
Andy Hamilton has been through two hard-fought matches and managed to put in averaged in the high 90s both times. Like a lot of players, he’s playing his best darts for a couple of years. A lacklustre year on the floor has been wiped away by two big wins and a good run at this year’s World Championship.
This contest could be an absolute beauty of Hamilton’s previous matches are any indication. Both men will see this as a huge chance to make a name for themselves now that this half of the draw is wide open. Chisnall’s performance in the second round makes him a short priced favourite, which I think is right, simply because he’s been consistent all year and has been to a World Championship final before, albeit in the BDO. He’s 4/9, which is fair, but it’s not for us. Both men have been hitting the 180s, so we’ll have a little dabble on that, as I think we’re going to get quite a few.
Over 12.5 180s in Andy Hamilton versus Dave Chisnall match: 5/6 @
Recommend: 1.5 units.
Gary Anderson (4) versus Colin Lloyd (13).
Gary Anderson is finding new and unique ways of making his backers sweat. He’s crawled over the line in his first two matches and he’ll not be wanting to have to go through it again. His figures have been solid enough, but there just seems to be something not clicking in the way it did last year. But there’s no denying he’s still in good form, and Anderson in good form is better than most players in great form. He’ll need to get his doubling going, as always, but if he does, Jaws might not get a sniff.
Colin Lloyd is doing far better than I thought he would, and he’s playing better, too. Beating the in-form Scott Rand is a huge scalp considering how Lloyd has been playing, and he’ll be looking to do more damage to the draw, this time to the No.4 seed. He’s not been pushed in either game, but now the challenge has been doubled, and then some.
Lloyd, for me, doesn’t have the game required to beat Gary Anderson at the moment. He can’t outscore the Scotsman, and he’ll struggle to even keep up, so Anderson will get some time on his doubles to get it right. While it might not be a whitewash for Anderson, he should take this reasonably comfortably. The 2/9 is prohibitive, so we’ll not be heading there. Aside from that, there is little value around, as you just can’t tell how many maximums Lloyd will weigh in with, or how Anderson’s doubling will be, so the 180s market and the highest checkout market are no-gos at the moment. So, just sit back and hopefully watch some fireworks.
Recommend: No bet.
That closes out the third round of the PDC 2012 World Championship, but we’ll be back on Friday for all four quarter-finals, with some big names squaring off against each other.
Until then, remember our good friends that are offering £50 of free bets to their new customers. Don’t forget to head over to 888.com.