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PDC 2013 World Championship Day Eight Premium Picks.
We’ve reached the second round of the 2013 PDC World Championship, with 40 players now by the wayside. Last night we saw the final men earn their place, and it started with Mark Walsh edging past Darren Webster in a scrappy encounter. That also scuppered our chances of a winning start! Then Paul Lim got back onto the PDC stage and beat Mohd Latif Sapup. His 4-1 was far from convincing, but it led to something wonderful later on. We also saw Scott Rand scrape past Kim Huybrechts in a fantastic match. Both men gave it their all, and thanks to a nice checkout of 127 from the Belgian, we got a nice winner. Stuart Kellett then broke my hard, and my outright bets, after missing so many doubles it stopped being funny. He looked handy in patches, and if he had converted his double changes, Vincent van der Voort might not be in the tournament. But he didn’t, so VDV is still in the hunt after his 3-0 win and 89 average. Finally, Paul Lim got back on the stage to face Michael van Gerwen. MVG was around 1/500 at best, and there felt like a shock could be on the cards when Lim broke the Dutchman straight away. But MVG struggled past the veteran 3-0, with Lim winning 5 legs (5 more than some people thought), and is the first man in this year’s tournament to take out the top 170 checkout.
So now we’ve got 6 matches and an early start today. The first arrow will be thrown just after 12:30pm, and who knows when the last arrow will be chucked?
The Premium Picks went 1-2 last night, taking them to 13-12 after seven days of the PDC 2013 World Championship, with a profit of +10 units.
Andy Hamilton (8) Vs Richie Burnett (25).
England versus Wales to open the second round, and this could be interesting!
Andy Hamilton was a bit shaky in his first round match, beating James Richardson 3-1, but the scoreline doesn’t accurately reflect the action. Hamilton was sloppy with his scoring, sloppy on the doubles and could have ended up like Raymond van Barneveld last year. But he didn’t, so he’ll be happy, and now in the longer format, he’ll be looking to settle in and do the business. He shouldn’t have to improve too much on his average of 90.24, but he’ll definitely have to improve his doubling.
Richie Burnett was seriously shocking in his first round match with James Hubbard. An 82.73 average tells the story. Burnett was missing doubles left, right and centre, and his concentration started going, especially when the crowd got on his back. He’s a former World Champion and he should know better. If the crowd start on him today, and I’m sure they will, it could end up being a long match for the Welshman.
The obvious selection here is Andy Hamilton, because although he wasn’t great, he was still a damn sight better than Burnett. Plus, the crowd will be out for blood with Burnett, which is only going to play into The Hammer’s hands. Hamilton also leads the head-to-head 3-1, so it’s another tick in the Hamilton box. The problem is there’s no value in The Hammer. The bookies think the same as I do. However, Hamilton did put in a 122 finish in his match with Richardson, and with a couple of extra legs, the line of 131.5 could be in a spot of bother. Plus, Burnett might have to put in a big checkout just to keep up with Hamilton’s scoring.
Highest checkout in Hamilton Vs Burnett match over 131.5: 5/6 @
Recommend: 1.5 units.
Dave Chisnall (12) Vs Daryl Gurney.
This is a tasty, tasty tie. It might not look it, but both these players “burst” onto the BDO scene around the same time, and both were playing fantastic darts around 2009 BDO World Championship, and both men ended up losing to the man they call Wolfie.
Dave Chisnall, the new power scoring on the block (well, the past few years), and he had a bit of a tough one against Shane Tichowitsch, although he came through 3-0 after the Australian put up a fight. Chisnall, after beating Phil Taylor here last year, has still not come good on that form on TV, and it’s on the floor where he does his best work. That being said, no-one can match his scoring other than the elite of the PDC. His average of 92.89 in the first round was good enough, and he’ll be happy with it.
Daryl Gurney’s two games into his debut at the Ally Pally, after coming through a Qualifying Round match, and then beating Andy Smith 3-1 to set up this tie. The Northern Irishman has been playing good darts on the circuit, and he wasn’t lacking confidence against Andy Smith. His average was only 83.35, though, and he’ll have to up his game if he want to trouble Chissy. That being said, he’ll be more relaxed now, and he’ll definitely put up a fight.
The interesting thing here is to note that last big match these two men played against each other was in the 2008 World Masters first round, which Gurney won. Their careers have gone in different paths since then, with Chisnall making it into the Top 12 of the PDC, and Gurney plying his trade on the BDO circuit. But if rumours are to be believed, Gurney will be taking his chances at Q-School, so he must have some confidence in his game. The bookies don’t like Gurney one bit, making Chisnall a 1/8 favourite. That, for me, is far too short, as Chisnall is capable of blobs on the TV stage, and Gurney DOES have a win over Chisnall in a BDO Major. While I can see Chisnall scraping it, there’s definitely value to be had in backing Gurney at a big price, especially when you take Chisnall’s finishing into account; a few missed doubles and Gurney will be loving life.
Daryl Gurney to beat Dave Chisnall: 11/2 @
Recommend: 1 unit.
Gary Anderson Vs John Bowles.
I don’t think many would have predicted this match up, but John Bowles is a deserved second round opponent for Gary Anderson, and there was even the possibility of Jamie Caven Vs Jani Haavisto in this round, as all 4 men played amazing darts in the first round.
A very solid start for Gary Anderson, with a 98.82 average, even if he was made to work for it by his Finnish opponent. But he looked extremely comfortable on his throw, was rarely troubled and scored 5 180s, which was probably on the low side considering he played 18 legs! His highest checkout was 96, which is par for the course with Anderson. He looked in good nick, his average was the third highest of the first round, so I think we’re looking at a man in good form. You also have to remember there’s no pressure on him, as no-one is expecting much from him due to his poor year on the Tour.
John Bowles shocked everyone, putting 15 points on his average from his qualifying match, to beat Jamie Caven 3-2 with an average of 93.56. He was outstanding with his scoring, and really did look like a different player from the one who beat Carlos Rodriguez in the prelim match. There really isn’t much else to say, other than if he can bring that kind of game today, Anderson will have another fight on his hands.
Personally, I don’t think Bowles has any chance at all against Anderson. I think Anderson will punish Bowles inconsistent scoring, and as long as he can hit his doubles, Bowles will be out of luck. But there’s no value at all, so we’ll leave this match alone.
Recommend: No bet.
Terry Jenkins Vs John Part.
A big match between two PDC veterans, and both men will fancy their chances here.
Jenkins looked back to form with a 94.31 average in his first round win over Steve Brown. He scored well, doubled well, and looked confident in his game for the first time in a long time. He likes the Ally Pally stage, and there seems to be very few people he’s scared of.
Since the Grand Slam of Darts, John Part has showed he’s still capable of great darts. Muralgate should have him fired up, too. He’ll have to improve on his 89.56 average, but he is capable of that. Jenkins will be a tougher test than Joe Cullen, but he couldn’t do more than win 3-0, which he did.
Jenkins just looked outstanding in the first round, and when he’s playing well, his treble 20 hitting is a thing of beauty. Part’s scoring isn’t consistent enough, in my opinion, to trouble an in-form Jenkins. The Bull should have too much, and I think the value lies in the handicap.
Terry Jenkins -1.5 sets to beat John Part: 10/11 @
Recommend: 2 units
Robert Thornton Vs Paul Nicholson
Another interesting match, with similar styles from both men. One is looking to cap a great year with a good run at the World Championship, the other is looking to get back to his best form.
Robert Thornton looked imperious in his 3-0 win over Magnus Caris, dropping only one leg to the Swede, and putting in the second highest average of the first round, at 99.06. He’s a man playing with confidence, and he’s shown that his standard in the BDO a few years ago was no fluke… finally. He’s found his grove, he’s had a great year and he’s playing with a lot of confidence.
Paul Nicholson was a man many had written off this year; he wasn’t going deep in floor tournaments, he struggled on TV, but then he managed to put together some nice runs here and there, and then his win over Co Stompe in the first round of the World Championship seems to have got people’s attention. His average was only 87.95, but it was more than enough to win 3-0, and he never looked troubled by the Dutchman. He’ll have to up that against Thornton, but he’s capable over averaging over 100, and if he can bring his A-game, he’ll be able to get the advantage over the Scotsman.
This looks close on paper, but Thornton is playing with so much confidence in his game that it’s hard to see how someone playing at a level 10 points below in the first round can trouble him. I can’t see it, but then I don’t like backing Thornton at such a short price. The value here is on the highest checkout market, as Thornton already has a 150 to his name, and Nicholson loves the combination outs, too. The line is 130.5, and I don’t think that’s too much trouble in a match that should go at least 6 sets.
Highest checkout in Thornton Vs Nicholson match over 130.5: 5/6 @
Recommend: 3 units.
Phil Taylor Vs Jerry Hendriks
Like most of Phil Taylor’s games, this should be a walk in the park. While Hendriks troubled Taylor a bit in a recent European Tour match, the result was never in doubt. I can’t see past a comfortable Taylor win, but I can’t find an angle. I can tell you how both men played in the first round, but Taylor made a slow start, as he tends to do, and Hendriks knocked out the seriously out-of-form Wayne Jones. Just sit back and enjoy the show. If Hendriks wins, he’s really upset the oods, but the bookies have this one right – Taylor victory at very short odds.
Recommend: No bet.
That’s it for Day Eight of the PDC 2013 World Championship. Thank you for subscribing, old subscribers and new, and enjoy the darts!
