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PDC 2013 World Championship Day Eleven Premium Picks.
The last day of darts before Christmas was the epitome of things not going out way. Terry Jenkins should have at least got a chance at beating Andy Hamilton, as he averaged over 100, and that includes missing 69% of his doubles. We also had Peter Wright go 2-0 up against Michael van Gerwen, only to lose 4 sets in a row. That was on the back of Steve Beaton busting his 122 in a crucial leg against James Wade, and hitting 21 140s, but only 1 180. But the day did start brightly, with Dean Winstanley and Vincent van der Voort hitting 16 maximums, which followed Justin Pipe and Mark Walsh only hitting 8. So it started so brightly, then faded out terribly. And although I think we were unlucky, it was just terrible.
It’s another early start, with the last 6 third round matches taking place across two sessions. We start with Wes newton taking on Mark Walsh, then Dave Chisnall faces Simon Whitlock, and James Wade finishes the afternoon session against Vincent van der Voort. Another Dutchman opens up the evening session, as the red-hot Michael van Gerwen takes on Colin Lloyd. Then we have the tie of the round, possibly, with Gary Anderson taking on Raymond van Barneveld. The World Champion, Adrian Lewis, rounds off the day with a tough one against Kevin Painter.
The Premium Picks went 2-6 last time out, taking them to 19-22 after ten days of the PDC 2013 World Championship, with a profit of +2.51 units.
Wes Newton (6) Vs Mark Walsh (22).
Mark Walsh opening up yet another day of darts. He probably thinks people don’t want to watch him… Anyway, it doesn’t look like an exciting game, but it’s going to be scrappy, and if you love that kind of darts match, you’ll love this.
Wes Newton finally turned on the style at the World Championship, with his 4-0 destruction of Scott Rand. Newton averaged 99.53, hit 5 maximums and took out checkouts of 144, 143 and 133. The only downsize? His finishing was 33%. The thing Newton will be happiest with is the fact he put 13 points onto his first round average. He’d looked much more comfortable on the stage against Rand than he did against Johnny Haines.
Mark Walsh has had two wins in two scrappy matches. His 4-2 win over Justin Pipe featured 8 maximums, with 5 of them coming from Walsh. The highest checkout of the match was 101, again coming from Walsh. The best part of Walsh’s game? His finishing. He hit 50% of his doubles, which made all the difference against Pipe. He’s not the flashiest of players, but he is definitely consistent – you’re not going to get many spectacular performances, but you’ll get around the high-80s average, and a fight.
Like Walsh’s match against Pipe, which I said wasn’t going to be pretty, this is going to be one for the purists. Walsh will bring Newton into a scrap, which Newton won’t want. Newton was in his element against the heavy-scoring Rand, and he was shocking against the scrappier Haines. Playing Walsh may just bring his game back down those 13 points he found in the second round. Add in the fact that Walsh is usually scrappy, then the play here has to be the total 180s market. Walsh has 7 in two matches, Newton has 5, all of which came in his second round match. The line here is pretty big, and again I think we’re going to struggle to get to double figures in what could be a scrappy match. And even if Newton does play out of his skin, that should mean we’ll only get 4 or 5 sets, which would be fine.
Under 11.5 180s in Wes Newton versus Mark Walsh match: 5/6 @ 888sport.
Recommend: 2 units.
Simon Whitlock (5) Vs Dave Chisnall (12)
A battle of two heavy scorers here, and with the results going according to the seedings here, it’s a match I’ve been looking forwad to, because if both men bring anything close to their A-games, it’s going to be a nip-and-tuck affair with a lot of power scoring.
Two matches in to the 2013 PDC World Championship and Simon Whitlock is yet to drop a set. In fact, he’s only dropped 7 legs, so that’s 1 a set on average. Not bad going. But you have to remember that he’s not been playing the toughest opposition. His first round win over Haruki Muramatsu came with an average of 95.5, while his 4-0 win over Colin Osborne was with an average of 96.34, and he was never pushed in either game. So Whitlock has been putting in very solid averages without being pushed, which bodes well for the Aussie. The one strange stat is that he’s only scored 6 180s in both matches. You’d expect The Wizard to have a few more. However, he’s had a 164 checkout, and his doubling against Colin Osborne was a very respectable 55%. So Whitlock’s game is clicking, and he’ll fancy his chances of beating Dave Chisnall.
That being said, Dave Chisnall will fancy his chances of beating Simon Whitlock. Chisnall has a tournament average of 95.67 after his wins over Shane Tichowitsch and Daryl Gurney. He was pushed hard in both matches, and although he won them 3-0 and 4-1, both men played their part in great games. It’s testament to Chisnall that he only dropped 1 set. As expected, Chisnall has a high 180 count of 15, with 10 of them coming against Gurney. He was pushed hard by the Northern Irishman’s scoring, and he pulled the 180s out of the bag. The only downside seems to be his high checkouts. Chisnall did have a 40% checkout success against Gurney, but his highest finish was only 107, which was his highest of the tournament. Needless to say, Chisnall’s high checkouts are not the big part of his game, but he’ll need to hit a couple to challenge Whitlock.
This is going to be a tight game, as both men are high-scoring players, and both men will be fighting hard to get the win here, and the win would help push them up the rankings. I can’t pick a winner here, as both men have their strengths and their weaknesses. But I think we’re going to get at least 6 sets, and Chisnall, in 5, hit 10. The line here is 14.5, so if Chisnall comes out firing, he’s got the potential to get at least two-thirds of the line. I think it’s great value, and both men will get a fair amount of maximums in what’s going to be a long, close match.
Over 14.5 180s in Simon Whitlock Vs Dave Chisnall match: 5/6 @ 888sport.
Recommend: 2.5 units.
James Wade (3) Vs Vincent van der Voort (19).
Another match that’s gone with the seedings, and we’ve got James Wade facing the resurgent Dutchman, Vincent van der Voort.
James Wade has played solid darts in his first two matches. He was never pushed by Peter Hudson, but was given a bit of a test by Steve Beaton. However, he came through both with a tournament average around 91.5, which is enough to beat a lot of the PDC sloggers. However, is it enough to beat the PDC elite? Probably not. But Wade has 9 180s to his name, and a highest checkout of 130. He’s solid, if unspectacular, and when he was pushed by Beaton, he came good.
Vincent van der Voort had a remarkable win against Dean Winstnaley. Winstanley hit a 9-darter, looked to have turned the tide when he came back from 2-0 down to level at 2-2, but then VDV just pulled away and came through a tough match. The Dutchman ended up with an average of 90.79, 1 point greatest than his first round win over Stuart Kellett. He’s not been playing spectacular darts, but it’s been good enough and he’ll be happy with how he’s playing. The win over Winstanley was a bit of a surprise considering his recent form, so he’ll be confident in his abilities now. The big thing for VDV in his last match was his 180 scoring. He hit 7 against Winstanley, which is a sign his game has come back to some level of normality. He might not win this match, but he’ll push Wade all the way if he can get his scoring together.
I think this is going to be tighter than the bookies thinks. Wade is playing to a level that’s below the elite, but enough to do damage to the rest of the PDC boys. He will probably win here, but it’s not going to be pretty. VDV might pull off an upset, sure, but it’s just such a mess that I can’t touch the winner market. However, what I like is Vincent van der Voort on the Most 180s market. He played 6 sets against Winstanley, hit 7 maximums, he’s hit 9 180s in total, the same as James Wade, and yet he’s the outsider of the two to hit the most 180s, and he’s a fairly big price. I think VDV, once he hits his groove, his his fair share of 180s, while Wade could hit a hell of a lot more, or he could have half as many. The value is with the Dutchman on this market.
Recommend: 2 units.
Michael van Gerwen (7) Vs Colin Lloyd (23)
I’m not going to waste our time here. MVG beat Peter Wright, who is playing far better darts than Lloyd, so I can’t see MVG being troubled here. The handicap, where I would usually turn, offers no value, as MVG is still short -2.5 sets. Just sit back and enjoy the destruction that Michael van Gerwen could unleash on Colin Lloyd.
Recommend: No bet.
Gary Anderson (4) Vs Raymond van Barneveld (13).
Match of the round? Maybe. Match of the night? Most probably. Most talent on one stage at a time so far this tournament? For sure.
Gary Anderson has impressed during the World Championship, but he’s had to fight for both wins. He’s averaged over 98 in both matches, but he won 3-1 in the first round, and 4-3 in the second round. He problem he’s had is breaking his opponent’s throw, but on his own throw, he’s been unbelievably solid thanks to his power scoring. As expected, he’s hit a huge number of 180s, 24 in total, and he’ll put in a fair few more tonight.
Raymond van Barneveld, after turning on the style in the first round, got into a bit of a scrap with Brendan Dolan in the second round. He still averaged 95.75, and has 12 maximums to his name. Yes, 4 of those came in his second round match, but he played solid, consistent darts against Dolan, which was more than enough.
This is going to be so close. Anderson could have been out if Bowles had hit double top on his three tries for the match, but he didn’t deserve to lose. Barney hasn’t had to fight for his matches. Anderson has. It’s going to be so close, as both men are close on the averages and we know that on their day, they’re both in the top 1% of players in the PDC. I can’t split them. However, I can see this going all the way, and the line over 5.5 sets is too tempting. We’ll go there and hope both men can get two sets on the board and then ride it out.
Over 5.5 sets in Anderson Vs Van Barneveld match: 8/13 @
Recommend: 5 units.
Adrian Lewis (2) Vs Kevin Painter (15)
It’s the first REAL challenge for Adrian Lewis, and Kevin Painter is definitely going to be a challenge for him. Both men will be fancying their chances here, so I think we’re in for a cracking match.
Adrian Lewis is yet to be pushed in this year’s World Championship. As a result, the reigning World Champion hasn’t averaged over 90 in this year’s tournament. He beat Gino Vos 3-1, and beat Denis Ovens 4-1, so he hasn’t really been pushed. His 87.95 average against Ovens was almost 5 points greatest than his first round average, but it still wasn’t impressive. He’s still hit 10 maximums in the tournament, which isn’t too bad for a man who’s not been hitting the heights. That being said, he did this in his two World Championship wins, starting slowly and coming good when it counts. When Lewis isn’t pushed, his games suffers, and a game against one of the Top 16 might just be what he needs to lift it to the next level.
Kevin Painter has played great darts in his first two matches. He came through a very dangerous second round match against Ronnie Baxter with a 95.86 average, but the most important thing was the fight The Artist showed. He showed a spirit that had been missing from his game for quite some time. He was 2-0 down in the final set, but still pulled out the win. Kevin Painter of 2 years ago would have been throwing junk and would have lost that final set 3-0. How times change. The only downside is that Painter showed he is still switching off during matches, and he gets punished for it. If he falls asleep against Lewis, Painter will be punished.
This is going to be closer, as I always say, than the bookies think. Painter is playing better darts than Lewis, and Lewis hasn’t been impressive in his two matches. However, I’ve been hoping we get this match, because I think Painter is capable of beating Lewis, even before the tournament began, and now they’ve played two matches, I think it’s even more likely. You have to remember, Lewis’ world has become uprooted, and his family life comes first, so baby’s first Christmas is going to be much more important than facing Kevin Painter. Painter has a life chance here, and I think he’s going to eliminate the current World Champion.
Kevin Painter to beat Adrian Lewis: 13/8 @
Recommend: 2 units.
That’s it for the final set of third round matches of the PDC 2013 World Championship. Thank you for subscribing, old subscribers and new, and enjoy the darts! I’ll be back after Christmas, so until then, happy Christmas, and enjoy the darts!
