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PDC 2013 World Championship Day Five Premium Picks.
Such a frustrating night last night. We got off to a great start with Peter Wright covering the handicap comfortably, and showing that he is definitely one of the more underrated players on the ProTour and his ranking does him no justice. It’s a shame the draw has conspired against him, as a nice run would have sent him up the rankings to a place he deserves. But then it went a bit pear-shaped, with Carlos Rodriguez not taking the many chances he was given over John Bowles. And then Mark Webster showed the form of a former World Champion, taking apart Ian White for a very comfortable 3-1 win. We also had a 3-0 win for James Wade, and another win for John Bowles, which was match of the night, and perhaps even match of the round. Jamie Caven played a huge part in Bowles’ 3-2 win, and the match could have gone either way. It was a great way to round off a disappointing night.
The Premium Picks went 1-2 last night, taking them to 7-8 after four days of the PDC 2013 World Championship, with a profit of +2.52 units.
Before we get into the tips, I want to remind you of the great offer from Victor Chandler. Victor Chandler are refunding all bets placed on the outright market until the start of the second round if Phil Taylor wins the World Championship.
Steve Beaton (30) Vs Kyle Anderson.
The Adonis takes his bow in the 2013 PDC World Championship against the unknown quantity of Australia’s Kyle Anderson. An interesting way to start the night with a former World Champion taking on the current Oceanic Masters champion.
Steve Beaton has had a bit of a quiet year after his resurgence two seasons ago. It’s not that he’s had a bad year, far from it, but he’s not managed a great run in a Major this season, and he actually lost in the preliminary round of the UK Open this year. However, he did make the last 16 of the World Grand Prix and the Players Championship Finals, so it’s not been a complete bust this year! He’s also only made one semi-final on the floor this year, and two quarter-finals, so maybe not playing darts that will get him back into the Top 16 any time soon. However, he’ll be happy with the draw, as there are potentially far tougher opponents than Kyle Anderson.
Kyle Anderson, as I mentioned previously, qualified after winning the Oceanic Masters. He hasn’t had a bad year in Australia, but this is a huge step up for the Indigenous thrower. The field he beat to qualify wasn’t exactly a who’s who, but he got some good wins and is here by right. Aside from that, I have nothing else to mention about the Aussie!
I think Beaton looks like a good thing here, but at 1/6 he’s no value outright. However, Anderson isn’t too experienced, and we’ve seen in the past that the inexperience can get to players, especially those in the lower echelons of the game, and Beaton should be able to capitalise on that with his strong scoring and deadly finishing. I can’t see past a 3-0 win, so we’ll be going in on that.
Steve Beaton to beat Kyle Anderson 3-0: 11/10 @
Recommend: 2 units.
Qualifying Match
Lourence Ilagan Vs Jamie Lewis
This could be a bit of a tasty qualifying match. Lourence Ilagan has a bit of experience under his belt, playing in the 2009 World Championship where he lost in the prelim to Marko Kantele. But in the same year, he reached the semi-finals of the World Masters, beating Scott Waites and Robbie Green on the way. He returned to PDC screens in this year’s World Cup, losing in the first round along with Christian Perez. Jamie Lewis is an up-and-coming youngster, who has won two Youth Tour events this season, but not much else on the tour, just consolidating his position on the ProTour. It could be close, and I can’t pick a winner, although Lewis might just show what he’s capable of, and if he does, Ilagan might struggle.
Recommend: No bet.
Wes Newton (6) Vs Johnny Haines.
A big match in the fourth quarter of the draw, as it’s wide open. Wes Newton will fancy his chances of winning his quarter, and Johnny Haines will stand in his way. That being said, I’m sure Haines has plenty of self-belief that he can make an impact with this draw, too.
Wes Newton is looking to make the leap from also-ran to big-hitter. The No.6 seed has had a big year, winning two floor tournaments, reaching the quarter-final of the UK Open, then hitting a 9-darts at the World Matchplay, the final of the European Championship and the semi-final of the World Grand Prix. His climb up the rankings has taken some time, but he’s deserving of his place in the Top 6.
Johnny Haines also had a big year, winning a ProTour Card at the start of the year, and qualifying for three European Tour events, reaching the quarter-final of the Dutch Masters, and the last 16 of the European Open. He didn’t light up the floor, being somewhat inconsistent, but he’s climbing through the rankings, and it’s all about the experience for him.
Newton is obviously a clear favourite here, and understandably so. However, as John Bowles showed last night, the lower ranked players can put up a great fight. Newton’s got a lot of pressure on his shoulders to perform here, and slack set or two could be all that Haines needs to capitalise. Haines might just be a bit of value here at the prices, and if Newton stumbles, Haines has enough in his locker to get through here. In fact, Haines’ wins of Peter Wright, Raymond van Barneveld and Jamie Caven at the Dutch Masters show he can hang with the big guns in tight matches. Newton SHOULD come through here, but there’s just a bit too much value to be had with a somewhat in-form Haines.
Johnny Haines to beat Wes Newton: 6/1 @
Recommend: 0.5 units.
Mervyn King (14) Vs Dean Winstanley.
And now for the match we’ve all been waiting for, the main event of the first round, and two in-form players who will be looking for a big run at the PDC World Championship.
Mervyn King confounded everyone in the second half of the year, with some great performances, most notably reaching the final of the World Granx Prix, and also the semi-finals of the European Open, as well as 7 other quarter-finals this year. It’s a resurgence in form for a man that many, including myself had written off. He’s found his scoring ability, but it’s his doubling where he’s actually come good; King on Double 16 is a thing of beauty at the moment.
As for Dean Winstanley, he’s up there with Dave Chisnall when it comes to power scoring. Yes, he’s also up there with Chisnall when it comes to doubling, but he finally found his range on the doubles at the Grand Slam of Darts, where he made the semi-finals, losing to a young Dutchman, I believe, called Michael van Gerwen 16-8. It’s been a great debut year for Over The Top, and this appearance, win or lose, will put him close to the Top 40 to cap a big year for the former BDO World Championship Finalist.
While both men will no doubt love the draw for their quarter, they’ll have been gutted to draw one another; there are far easier seeds for Winstanley to face, and there are much, much easier unseeded players for Mervyn King to face. The important thing here is the Grand Slam of Darts. Winstanley showed a different side to his game after his first round defeat, and his interview after winning his group showed a hunger that might not have been there in previous TV tournaments this year. And if he has his scoring sorted, King will struggle to keep up with him, then it’s down to the doubles. We’re looking at Winstanley having more chances to win legs than King simply down to Winstanley’s ability on the Treble 20, and if he takes them, he’s through. If the double trouble comes back, he’s out. Simple as that. But the GSOD showed that Winstanley’s game is adapting, and I’m sure he’s well aware of the double trouble, so he knows where his weakness is. There is just a shade of value to be had on Winstanley, I think.
Dean Winstanley to beat Mervyn King: 11/10 @
Recommend: 2 units.
Colin Osborne (28) Vs Ilagan/Lewis
And, as usual, we finish with the qualifier taking on one of the seeded players. And, again, the seeded player is one of the weaker seeds in the field. Colin Osborne is a shade of his former self, and he’s really struggling to keep in the Top 32. That being said, Ilagan or Lewis might not pose too much of a threat. But if the qualifier winner shows any kind of form, Osborne could be in trouble. Osborne will be short, like Caven last night, so he is always going to be worth betting against should the price be right. But I can’t recommend a bet without knowing the prices.
Recommend: No bet.
That’s it for the fifth night of the PDC 2013 World Championship. Thank you for subscribing, old subscribers and new, and here’s to a fantastic World Championship. Remember, get your outright winners bets on (I’d looking at Winstanley/King/Kellet) at
Remember, if Phil Taylor wins it, and you back someone else, you get a refund of your bet up to the value of £50. What are you waiting for? I’ve already hit them up, you should, too.
