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PDC 2013 World Championship Day Thirteen Premium Picks.
Only two matches today in one session of darts. Wes Newton takes on James Wade in our opener, and then we get the main event of defending World Champion Adrian Lewis taking on the man no-one wants to face, Michael van Gerwen.
The Premium Picks went 1-2 last time out, taking them to 22-27 after eleven days of the PDC 2013 World Championship, with a profit of -7.49 units.
Wes Newton (6) Vs James Wade (3).
A big quarter-final for both men, as they’ve got a lot to prove. Wes Newton wants to prove he can hang with the big boys in the PDC, while James Wade needs to prove he’s back to some kind of form after the terrible years he’s had.
Wes Newton has had an up and down World Championship. He’s played three scrappy matches, and one outstanding match. To be fair, his scrappy wins have come against opponents that would bring even the best down to their level, while Scott Rand was playing great darts, and Newton was allowed to play great darts. You’ll notice that all the best players play better when they’ve got a free-scoring opponent – look at Simon Whitlock against Raymond van Barneveld last night. This is the further Wes Newton has been in a World Championship, so he’ll definitely be looking to go at least one better. His 87.22 average in the third round was really nothing special, but he won 4-1, and that’s the numbers that matter. In fact, he’s only dropped 1 set all tournament, which is impressive considering his tournament average is sitting at 91.22 and he’s only hit 8 180s. But he’s playing consistent darts, and he’s had a great year, so he’ll be quietly confident of making his first World Championship semi-final.
James Wade has been another model of consistency during the tournament. He’s steadily averaged around the 90 mark, never deviating too much. He’s hit 11 maximums, dropping 2 sets in the process. It’s not vintage Wade, but it’s good to see him get some wins under his belt after the year he’s had. He might not even have to up his game too much to get through to another World hampionship semi-final.
Looking at the performances of both men and their stats, this has the potential to be a close one. Newton’s tournament average of 91.22 is slightly better than Wade’s 90.94, but Wade has the upper-hand on the 180s. Newton has a 144 to his name, Wade has a 130. It’s definitely going to be tight. And then we’ve got the highest checkout market. Both men have the potential to hit the big finishes, we should get a lot of legs, and the line is relatively low at 137.5. Two bets here, on the total sets and the highest checkout.
Over 7.5 sets in Wes Newton Vs James Wade match: 5/6 @
Recommend: 3 units.
Highest checkout over 137.5 in Newton/Wade match: 5/6 @
Recommend: 3 units.
Adrian Lewis (2) Vs Michael van Gerwen (7).
And here it is, the defending World Champion taking on the heir apparent.
Adrian Lewis has been grinding his way through the tournament, he’s not been firing on all cylinders and his tournament average is 88.72. The big hitter has managed 18 maximums, and put in a finish of 120. It’s not a vintage performance from the current World Champion, but he’s done enough to get through ever game without being pushed too much. In fact, he was pushed by Kevin Painter, and he still won 4-2. Lewis has performed when it mattered, and he got over the line every time. He’s lost more legs than anyone else left in the tournament, more sets, but he wasn’t playing great darts in 2011 or 2012. The signs were there then, and it’s the same signs he’s putting out now.
What is there left to say about Michael van Gerwen this year? He’s got a tournament average of 97.24, which is brought down by his first round match against Paul Lim. He’s got 19 180s and a highest checkout of 121. The highest checkout is due to his power scoring, as well as his poor doubling at times. But he’s on a bit of a roll now, and his wins over Peter Wright and Colin Lloyd were phenomenal at times. The longer format will suit him, as he can take some time to get into the groove.
This is all about Michael van Gerwen and if he can keep up his form. He’s got 9 points over Lewis on the tournament averages, and the fact Lewis has only averaged over 90 once in this tournament in his three matches shows he’s got a bit to go to catch up with MVG. The handicap line is -1.5 and I can’t see it going all the way if MVG can put a few sets together with his power scoring. Painter SHOULD have punished Leis, and I think Van Gerwen will. The rest of the stats are all a bit too even to find any value, as both has relatively low highest checkouts, and they’re level on the 180s – add in that MVG is going for his cover shots more and the 180s markets just don’t appeal.
Michael van Gerwen -1.5 sets to beat Adrian Lewis: 5/6 @
Recommend: 3 units.
That’s it for the final quarter-final matches of the PDC 2013 World Championship. Thank you for subscribing, old subscribers and new, and enjoy the darts!
