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PDC 2014 World Championship Day Six Premium Picks.
If we thought Monday night’s action was poor, what did you make of last night? The quality of darts on show was pretty shocking, with only Simon Whitlock providing a glimmer of hope. Even Michael van Gerwen was distinctly average. Of course, distinctly average is still better than what was served up between Vincent van der Voort and Matt Clark. Let’s just say if Adrian Lewis can win tonight, he’s not going to be scared of van der Voort. But, we got the handicap win for the Dutchman, along with a nice 5/2 win thanks to Beau Anderson winning the sudden-death leg against Colin Lloyd. I didn’t think the Aussie would get us there, but he dug deep in the final set and never lost the lead. We’re now 9-9 with profit of +1.5 units for the Premium Picks.
Tonight, things look slightly better, as we’ve got Andy Smith taking on Steve Brown, then we get what could be a cracking Prelim Match with Morihito Hashimoto taking on Paul Lim, with both men keen to repeat previous successes at the PDC World Championship. The winner gets to face Michael Smith, and all three men will be confident of making it to the second round. Justin Pipe takes on Arron Monk, and the night is closed by Adrian Lewis and Dennis Smith.
Andy Smith Vs Steve Brown.
This match should be good. Both men are seemingly around the same level, and both men have had up and down years, and both men need the win to climb back up the rankings. But there’s something about Smith’s form that has been more consistent than that of Brown, and it’s why I can’t look past a win for The Pieman. He’s a bit too short on the outright, but a small dabble on the handicap seems right, as he’s so consistent, especially on the 140s, that if he gets a lead he’s going to be hard to peg back, and I think Brown might just be a bit too inconsistent to get through here. The handicap looks the value compared to the outright.
Andy Smith -1.5 sets to beat Steve Brown Best price 6/5
Recommend: 1.5 units.
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Prelim Match:
Morihito Hashimoto Vs Paul Lim.
One of the best Prelim Matches, I think, with both men having a degree of success in the past at the Ally Pally, and neither man has been disgraced in their first round exits. I think it’s going to be a great match, and with Lim having some great form on the soft-tip boards coming into this, he’s probably rightly favourite, but I think it’s going to be close. Just enjoy this, as I think we’re going to get some surprisingly good darts.
Recommend: No bet.
Justin Pipe Vs Arron Monk.
A return to the TV stage for Arron Monk, who, at one point a couple of years ago, was never off the TV. But Monk’s form has gone by the wayside, and he takes on Justin Pipe, who is finally, after a few years of nerves, getting the hang of playing on TV. He’s going deep in TV tournaments now, and he’ll be happy with his draw, perhaps ending up in the weakest bracket. I can’t see past a very comfortable Pipe win here, as Monk has done nothing of note, and should be a good warm-up for Pipe. The big price on the handicap is very tempting.
Justin Pipe -2.5 sets to beat Arron Monk Best price 11/8.
Recommend: 1 unit.
Michael Smith Vs Hashimoto/Lim.
This is a coin flip here, and if the Prelim winner is a decent price, I would say you should get involved. Smith is a handy player, but he’s one of the weaker seeds, and is definitely in danger here. As ever, I can’t advise without prices, but keep an eye on the Prelim and if the winner impresses, get stuck into any decent prices that go up.
Recommend: No bet.
Adrian Lewis Vs Dennis Smith.
Adrian Lewis will be loving this draw, while Dennis Smith will perhaps be the unhappiest man in the tournament with his draw. As least the Prelim winner Rob Szabo got a signed board from Phil Taylor! That being said, Lewis has been notoriously slow to start at the World Championship, and was almost famously knocked out by Nigel Heydon just a couple of years ago. Smith hasn’t had the best time of it recently, so Lewis is rightly a short price to win. However, I think Smith has the skills and, more importantly, the slow game, to take at least a set from Jackpot. Smith’s slow, deliberate style is similar to that of Justin Pipe, and Pipe has a winning record over Lewis. There’s value here, and Smith has done the rounds so he’ll know he has to slow Lewis down.
Dennis Smith +2.5 sets to beat Adrian Lewis Best price 11/8.
Recommend: 1 unit.
That’s all for Day Six of the Premium Picks. I’ll have more for you tomorrow.
