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Thank god the festivities are over and we can get back to enjoying the darts. 6 R2 games today and hopefully a fair bet or two will present itself over the following 2 or 3 days.
Mervyn King v Co Stompe:
R1 – King bt Matt Clark 3-0
Ave: 97.4
180’s: 3
HC: 126
Stompe bt Steve Maish 3-1
Ave: 87.37
180’s: 1
HC: 78
King eased through his R1 match v Clark only dropping 2 legs in the process. He’s going to be hopeful of another good run here after his semi final last year and he definitely has the game to progress a long way. Stompe was less impressive in his opener and he will have to improve on that if he wants to live with King. He does have the game in his locker though as he has shown on the odd occasion but consistency is his problem. We’ve looked at this game and ummed and aahed about various bets and have concluded that all the prices look just about right. We really wanted to get long of the 180’s, but upon closer inspection it seems that over the piece King is probably worth 1 max every 5 legs. Stompe is probably worth 1 every 5 or 6 as well so if you imagine somewhere in the region of 22-24 legs the line looks about right.
Recommendation: No Bet
Kevin McDine v Barrie Bates:
R1 – McDine bt Dennis Priestley 3-2
Ave: 99.06
180’s: 4
HC: 127
Bates bt Jelle Klaasen 3-1
Ave: 88.61
180’s: 0
HC: 144
Battle of the cripples with Bates and his terminal limp taking on McDine and his injured knee. We thought Kevin played really well in R1 as shown with his average and the fact he had to come from 2 sets down. The only thing he will be keen to put to bed tho is last years memories of losing a 3-0 lead to Dennis Smith. Bates also played well in coming from a set down to beat Klaasen and the key seemed to be his finishing. If he hopes to win then he has to take out his chances again, as there is no question McDine is the heavier scorer. Again we’ve toyed with several bets here including the maxes, but just think that the odds seem to be correct. McDine is usually a good 180’s shooter but in order to beat the line of 7 he will probably have to hit at least 6 on his own as Bates has never hit more than 2 in any televised game that we can find. What then comes into play is how many legs they play as he had 4 in 21 legs v Priestley and this match could have roughly the same amount in it.
Adrian Lewis v Wes Newton:
R1 – Lewis bt Aodhagan O’Neil 3-0
Ave: 106.51
180’s: 6
HC: 122
Newton bt Jarkko Komula 3-0
Ave: 86.61
180’s: 2
HC: 111
Lewis was the most impressive of all the R1 victors,wrecording by far the highest average of all the players. He has so much talent but unfortunately trying to get him to produce it more consistently is the problem. He claims he is more focused since becoming a dad but he was woeful at the GSOD so we ainit buying into that theory yet. Newton did enough in his first match to get through but he is a player who saves his best for Vegas and hasnt shown it anywhere else yet. He did however push Barney in Ireland but his average was still poor and we think he has to average mid 90’s to live with Jackpot here. We think that Lewis will win this match in 5 or 6 sets but the bet we like here is the high check. Lewis especially is very good in the 130-150 range and we think with the prospect of 20+ legs that this is a fair shout.
Recommendation: Highest Checkout over 125.5 in the Lewis Vs Newton match: 10/11 @ Stan James.
Recommend: 2 units @ 10/11.
Alan Tabern v Mark Dudbridge:
R1 – Tabern v Ken MacNeil 3-2
Ave: 89.41
180’s: 5
HC: 75
Dudbridge bt Andree Welge 3-0
Ave: 82.67
180’s: 0
HC: 146
Tabern really toiled in his match vs the canadian MacNeil but it is to his credit that he managed to get through in the end. Dudbridge was also less than impressive vs the german Welge who missed a load of doubles to make the match much tighter. We can see this match being very cagey with a lot of legs being played and a lot of doubles getting missed as they tend to be their achilles heel (especially Dudders). Tabern is rightly a marginal favourite, but the bet we like is Tabern most maxes. We had priced this up with Tabern as a slight favourite, as he is usually pretty consistent for 4 or 5 a match where Dudbridge is very hit or miss around the treble. Just on the price alone we think Tabern has to merit a small wager in this market.
Tabern most 180a Vs Mark Dudbridge: 11/8 @ Stan James and Blue Square.
Recommend: 1 unit @ 11/8.
Phil Taylor v Steve Hine:
R1 – Taylor bt Colin Monk 3-0
Ave: 102.48
180’s: 2
HC: 170
Hine bt Roland Scholten 3-2
Ave: 83.45
180’s: 2
HC: 100
Taylor never came out of 2nd gear in his opener vs Monk and never dropped a leg in the victory. We think another routine win is on the cards here and he might not lose more than a leg again. Hine came through a low grade affair in R1 and to be honest came across as a bit of a tool with his actions during the match. He’s said it’s his dream to play Taylor on TV, but he might not feel like that after a Taylor masterclass. Obviously restrictions on 4-0 and most maxes make this a bit of a non event, but we were tempted to back under 6.5 maxes. However, Taylor could cover this on his own and after what happened in the Wade match in R1, we am reluctantly going to stay away altogether.
Recommendation: No Bet
Robert Thornton v Jyhan Artut:
R1 – Thornton bt Christian Perez 3-1
Ave: 84.29
180’s: 1
HC: 81
Artut bt Wayne Mardle 3-0
Ave: 82.24
180’s: 0
HC: 67
Thornton came through a nervy encounter vs the qualifier Perez and at times looked as if he could go out. He did get through and has a very winnable accounter here vs another debutant. Artut came through with ease vs Mardle, but in all honesty he was never pushed at any point as mardle virtually gave up. Thornton at 1/3 doesnt appeal to us, but we do think he will win. However, we’ve found it hard to get an edge on this match and will probably be half asleep as it comes on.
Recommendation: No Bet:
Summary: Hopeful that the afternoon can get us off to a good start with a high checkout in Jackpot’s match. Also at the price, we think Tabern can definitely outmax Dudders and we can watch the last 2 matches in profit.
Happy betting!
Bets made: 9
Winners: 7
Profit: +8.6 units.
