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Sorry for the delay! We’re already underway with today’s play, but here are our selections:
Andy Hamilton v Steve Beaton:
R1 – Hamilton bt Osmann Kijamet 3-0
Ave: 87.27
180’s: 1
HC: 40
Beaton bt Carlos Rodriguez 3-0
Ave: 89.52
180’s: 4
HC: 98
Should be a cracking start to the day with the heavy scoring Hammer taking on the worlds sexiest darts player! Hamilton never got out of first gear in his opener and never dropped a leg in a routine win. He will have to play better today though as he is taking on an in form player who seems a lot more relaxed on stage now. Again he wasnt pushed in his opener but he finished well and scored well and this should be a good match. We can see this going 6 sets minimum (famous last words). Hamilton on song is one of the best for hitting maxes and Beaton seems to have started to hit a lot more than in previous years as well. Hopefully the mark of 10.5 can be beaten as a result, but the lines seems just about right and there’s little value to be had.
Recommendation: No bet.
Terry Jenkins v Darin Young:
R1 – Jenkins bt Paul Nicholson 3-2
Ave: 93.35
180’s: 3
HC: 101
Young bt Andy Smith 3-2
Ave: 84.56
180’s: 4
HC: 86
Bit of an odd game here with Jenkins who has never really showed his best at Ally Pally vs Young who came through a shocker in R1. On their best form Jenkins would win this cosily but we have a bit of a feeling that this could have some swings in it. Key to Jenkins is his doubling as he normally scores well but his doubles can hold him back. Young on the other hand wont score as well but when I have seen him at GSOD he usually finishes pretty well. If Jenks gives chances then Young might take them and with the hope of a trade we are going to have a small bet on Young to win the handicap in receipt of +2.5 sets.
Darin Young +2.5 sets vs Terry Jenkins: Evens @ Stan James.
Recommend: 1 unit @ Evens.
Simon Whitlock v Wayne Jones:
R1 – Whitlock bt Colin Osborne 3-1
Ave: 101.02
180’s: 6
HC: 130
Jones bt Alex Roy 3-1
Ave: 85.61
180’s: 2
HC: 121
Final game of the afternoon sees a clash between the classy Aussie Whitlock and one of the best floor players in Jones. Whitlock is a really heavy scorer and brilliant doubler and he really could have a long run here which would give him an outside chance of the PL. Jones is a former SF here and is a player who I think is often underrated by the bookies. He played OK v Roy but finished well except when he almost chucked the match. Really think the high check is a good bet here simply because Whitlock takes out so many of them. Every game at the GSOD he played in beat the line and his R1 match also went over so hopeful of the run continuing here.
Highest Checkout Over 126.5 in the Whitlock Vs Jones match: 5/6 @ Blue Square.
Recommendation: 2 units @ 5/6
James Wade v Michael Van Gerwen:
R1 – Wade bt Steve Brown 3-1
Ave: 96.65
180’s: 6
HC: 71
MVG bt Peter Wright 3-1
Ave: 89
180’s: 3
HC: 32
Last match in R2 sees Wade take on the former prodigy in Van Gerwen. Wade hit his best ever average at this venue in R1 and did well to come through a fairly tough test. He clearly has masses of ability and is one of the few who can live with Taylor at his best. Van Gerwen won his opener pretty comfortably but was given a host of chances by his opponent. He will have to play well here to have a hope as we think Wade looks quite focused and is intent on a long run. Think the prices look about right here as the markets such as maxes are dependent on 6 sets and I think this could be a rout if Wade is at it this evening. As such we will sit back and enjoy a match with no stress.
Recommendation: No Bet
Phil Taylor v Robert Thornton:
R2 – Taylor bt Steve Hine 4-0
Ave: 103.28
180’s: 6
HC: 84
Thornton bt Jyhan Artut 4-1
Ave: 91.71
180’s: 4
HC: 105
Opening match of R3 sees the legend take on the Scotsman Thornton in what could prove to be another routine win. Taylor just marches on relentlessly showing no signs of getting worse and simply blowing away the opposition. He’s only dropped 2 legs so far and Thornton has to start well or he could be another whitewash victim. He played ok in R2 and finished well and thats what he has to do here. If he can average 96 or 97 and check out at 50% or better then he might make a game of it but thats a big if. He was blown away in the Jocky Wilson by Taylor 6-0 but he has given him games before so I hope its at least a contest here. As with all Taylor matches we find it hard to find a value bet but if pushed I’d say the max line of 9.5 would be beat if Thornton can take a set. We’re not convinced he can though, so won’t be playing as a result.
Recommendation: No Bet
Adrian Lewis v Kevin McDine:
R2 – Lewis bt Wes Newton 4-2
Ave: 103.68
180’s: 12
HC: 107
McDine bt Barrie Bates 4-0
Ave: 91.71
180’s: 1
HC: 127
Final game today sees a match between 2 young guns of the PDC. Lewis has been playing the best of all the players in the opening 2 rounds but he is capable of throwing in a shocker from nowhere. If he continues in that vein then he will be hard to stop tonight but McDine is capable. He is a huge scorer himself when on song and I think this could be a 6 or 7 set thriller. Bet we like here is the maxes again simply as both can hammer it and I honestly cannot see less than 4-2 or 4-3 here. The line is 1 lower than I thought it would be so hopefully this one goes to plan.
Over 13.5 180s in Lewis Vs McDine match: 5/6 @ Blue Square.
Recommendation: 2 units @ 5/6.
Summary: Wide range of bets today that hopefully keep us on track after yesterday. We like the look of the maxes and we’re hopeful that Young can get 2 sets to land the handicap. Finally, hopefully the wizard Whitlock can maintain his run of high checks in his match v Jones.
Happy betting!
Bets made: 14
Winners: 10
Profit: +8.985 units.
