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World Grand Prix Day Four Premium Picks
First off, I want to apologise for putting the wrong tip up for DOlan/Van der Voort on the maximums. If you had seen the free betting tip, or read the write-up, you will have seen that I was plumping for the unders. But I put “overs” and for that, I apologise. It turned a winning night into a losing night.
Anyway, Robert Thornton did it again over Phil Taylor. He followed up his UK Open Final win with victory in one of the greatest games on the World Grand Prix stage. It was followed up with another classic, with Mervyn King beating Dave Chisnall. Yes, Chisnall losing sucked for us, but we recouped some of it with his 180 power-scoring. At least we got the number of legs done on the Thornton/Taylor match. We also got the Dolan win over his Dutch opponent. And Justin Pipe just had to let Kevin Painter get 2 sets, didn’t he? Still, onwards and upwards, as ever.
We went 3-3 last night, taking us to 11-9 and we have a nice profit of +6.38 units after three days of competition. If would have been a wonderful +9.08 units if I had put “unders” instead of “overs”.
Second round continues tonight, but how can it follow last night’s fireworks? Well, we start off with Andy Hamilton taking on Steve Beaton. Both men looked impressive in the first round in potentially tricky ties. Then Colin Osborne takes on Paul Nicholson, in what’s going to be a tight match. Then we have the main event – Adrian Lewis facing Michael van Gerwen. That’s going to be an absolute barnstormer. Then we finish with Wes Newton facing off against Ian White in what I can see being another tight one, with both men having huge wins in the first round, but for different reasons.
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Andy Hamilton versus Steve Beaton.
Steve Beaton rolled back the years in his first round match with Andy Smith. He averaged 94.49, fired in four maximums, had a highest finish of 104 and limited Andy Smith to 2 legs in a straight-sets win. It was the kind of performance Beaton was putting in around this time two years ago, and it was great to watch, as I love his action. Plus, to quote the late, great Sid Waddell, he’s not A donis, he’s THE donis.
Andy Hamilton was also quite clinical in his first round match against Mark Webster. He won in straight-sets, fired in 3 maximums, but his average was only 84.92. But you can only beat what’s in front of you, and with Webster averaging 77.31, Hamilton never had to come out of second gear to win. But he should get a tougher match tonight.
I think, in normal circumstances, Hamilton would be good to win this, but he really wasn’t as impressive as Beaton was, he averaged 10 points less than Beaton, and both men were in matches where their opponents weren’t playing that well. Beaton just looked comfortable on the doubles, matched that with his scoring and seemed to have some confidence about him which will put him in a good position tonight. The value is there, but there’s also value in the player to score the highest checkout. Beaton put in the highest of the two in the first round, and Hamilton is hit or miss on the combinations, while Beaton’s game revolves around the big ones. Beaton should be favourite for that market, in my opinion, so we’re going with THe Adonis on that, too.
Steve Beaton to beat Andy Hamilton: 11/8 @ 888sport.
Recommend: 1.5 units.
Steve Beaton to score the highest checkout versus Andy Hamilton: 11/10 @ Betfair..
Recommend: 2 unit.
Colin Osborne versus Paul Nicholson
This could be a tight one, with both men out of form before the tournament, and both capable of the same standard of darts on their best day. The question is, is it going to be their best day, or will it be like a lot of their recent days on the PDC stage?
Osborne averaged 76.91, while Nicholson averaged 86.91, so there is a big discrepancy right there. Where Nicholson surged ahead was on his finishing – he missed one darts on a double out. It was impressive.
But the stats don’t tell the full story here. Paul Nicholson was put under no pressure at all by Michael Mansell, who was shocking. So we can’t let that blinker us to his recent poor form. Osborne came back from James Wade having total control of the match to show great spirit and a great fightback, so while his average was poor, his fight was not, and he put up more of a fight then Mansell did.
This is tighter than the bookies have it, in my opinion, and Osborne looks like the value here, as both, as mentioned before, are on the same standard, they’ve both been out of form, but Osborne’s win over Wade just showed something that Nicholson didn’t show against Mansell.
Colin Osborne to beat Paul Nicholson: 11/8 @ 888sport.
Recommend: 2 units.
Adrian Lewis versus Michael van Gerwen.
A clash of the darting Titans tonight, with two men that the public will have fancied to take the tournament down. The general public will have been all over the World Champion, while those in the darting world have been shouting from the rooftops about Michael van Gerwen’s current form. In fact, Lewis is now favourite for the tournament not that his mentor, Phil Taylor, has been knocked out. In my book, van Gerwen should be shorter than his current price of 10/1 if Lewis is 3/1 favourite!
Lewis didn’t impress in his first round match against Richie Burnett, and there was a point where he could have been in a lot of trouble against a more dangerous opponent. To be blunt, tonight’s opponent won’t let him off the hook in the way Burnett did. I can’t see MVG hitting 22% of doubles.
So MVG looks good, right? Well, I think so. He’s one of the form men in the PDC, maybe second to Robert Thornton, and we saw what Thornton got up to last night. We can’t go against the form lines, and the fact MVG played far better than Lewis did in the first round.
So we go with the value here, as MVG is just way too big, especially when this format doesn’t suit him as much as the regular format.
Michael van Gerwen to beat Adrian Lewis: 6/4 @ 888sport.
Recommend: 2 units.
Wes Newton versus Ian White.
A big night for Ian White, as he’s looking to bring his floor form to the second round of the World Grand Prix. He was soldi, if unspectacular, against Raymond van Barneveld, averaging 87.33, but it was his doubling that was outstanding. He hit 41% of his starting doubles, and 60% of his closing doubles. The rest of his game was generally average, but the start and finishi of the leg is where it counts.
Newton produced another great fightback, coming back from Baxter having match darts, to win 2-1. He averaged 89.55 and just played good darts once he got into the swing of it. He also averaged 40% on both his starting and closing doubles, so just such a solid all-round performance.
Where do we go here? I’d like to say Ian White is the pick, but I think the prices are right – Newton put in a great performance in the first round, he’s in the PDC Top 5 for a reason and he’ll be hungry for his first PDC Major, so he’s rightly a favourite here. White was just solid, nothing spectacular, in the first round. But what stands out about both players are their checkouts. White put in a 144, a 132 and a 112 in the first round. Newton fired in a 109. So with a best of 5 sets format, both players will have the chance to beat the line of 122.5.
Highest checkout in Wes Newton versus Ian White match over 122.5: 5/6 @ 888sport.
Recommend: 3 units.
I think it’s a tight night of darts, but I think we’re going to see a new favourite for the tournament if/when Michael van Gerwen takes care of Adrian Lewis. It’s going to be a good night of darts, even if we don’t get the drama of last night.
