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PDC World Grand Prix 2013 Day Five Premium Picks.
A far better night last night, and if it wasn’t for that pesky Michael van Gerwen, we would have had a great night, thanks in no small part to Justin Pipe beating Adrian Lewis at a fancy 5/2. Finally, the value paid off, after hitting the bar several times with the likes of Brendan Dolan and Connie Finnan! Andy Hamilton and Dave Chisnall also did the business at nice enough prices, with Chisnall cutting it close against Wayne Jones. So, back on the right track, and we’ll hopefully continue it tonight.
Tonight, we’re at the quarter-final stage already, and we’ve got three short-priced favourites, along with the coin-flip that is Simon Whitlock versus James Wade. Andy Hamilton is a warm favourite to beat Justin Pipe, while Michael van Gerwen and Phil Taylor are extremely short to beat Dave Chisnall and Gary Anderson respectively. The disparity between the top 8 or so in the rankings and the rest is actually similar to the disparity between the top 2 and the field, on paper. It’s not to say Anderson or Chisnall can’t do the business, as their A-game is fantastic, but Van Gerwen and Taylor are proving to be the two dominant forces in the game. Still, it’s four darts matches, and it’s the quarter-finals of a major PDC tournament, so what’s not to love?
Justin Pipe Vs Andy Hamilton (6).
Not the most exciting quarter-final, admittedly, but it’s an interesting one. While Andy Hamilton really stood out for me in the first round, he almost looked like he was suffering from the effects of such an impressive performance. He didn’t look as clinical against Kevin Painter, just solid. But it was the opposite for Justin Pipe. Pipe wasn’t too impressive in the first round, but he was clinical against Adrian Lewis, giving Jackpot very little in the way of chances with some big finishes, and some confident darts. On his day, Hamilton is hard to beat, and Pipe might have his work cut out, but what I think we’re going to see here is a lot of legs, and some impressive finishing, as both men have smashed the line so far this tournament, and I think they’re both going to have to do something impressive to take the other man down.
Highest checkout in Justin Pipe Vs Andy Hamilton match over 126.5: Best price 5/6.
Recommend: 4 units.
James Wade (5) Vs Simon Whitlock (4).
A battle for Order of Merit supremacy here between Simon Whitlock and James Wade. Both men have been far from impressive so far, both on the cusp of defeat, Whitlock from Michael Mansell and Wade from Connie Finnan. The bookies have this a coin flip, as do I. I’d hate to pick from two world class players in such average form. So I’m going to avoid taking a pick on the outright market, as I think the prices are just right. But I think we’ll get a fair few legs, and it could go 3-2 either way simply because both men are lacking any kind of impressive form.
Over 17.5 legs in James Wade Vs Simon Whitlock match Best price 10/11.
Recommend: 2 units.
Phil Taylor (1) Vs Gary Anderson.
It’s good to see Gary Anderson back in the quarter-finals of a PDC major, as it’s been too long since the Scotsman’s had a great showing on TV, and he’s been playing well in his first two matches. However, taking on Phil Taylor is, as we all know, a different proposition. Taylor’s looking good, but the stats do tell a slightly different story. Anderson has a tournament average of 97.4 (thanks mostly to his near 105 average in the first round), while Taylor is only sitting on 93.41. I say “only”, but it’s down to the fact Taylor averaged 86.88 against Paul Nicholson. Nicholson pushed Taylor, and that might happen against with Anderson. Of course, Taylor has the effect on players like Anderson that causes them to capitulate on stage, and that might just be the case again if the Scotsman is not careful. What’s interesting is the most 180s market. The thing I’ve noticed about Anderson’s game of late is that he’s struggling to fill the treble 20 bed. Taylor looks the value to score the most 180s here, considering Anderson only got 3 in 5 sets against Wes Newton and hit 0 in 6 legs against Jelle Klaasen. Taylor managed 3 in his 4 sets against Paul Nicholson, and 2 in his 3 sets win over Jamie Caven. So the stats tend to favour Taylor, and he’s a big price.
Phil Taylor to score most 180s Vs Gary Anderson Best price 2/1.
Recommend: 1.5 units.
Michael van Gerwen (2) Vs Dave Chisnall (7).
For 2nd seed against 7th seed, the bookies have this down as incredibly one-sided. And I do, too, if I’m being honest. While it’s good to see Chizzy doing well again, he’s been unlucky to draw MVG, who looks in great form. He averaged over 104 in the first round, and then put Barney to the sword with some big finishes in the second round. Chisnall stumbled through against Ian White, and got off to a slow start against Wayne Jones before powering through. He can’t afford those kind of lapses against Van Gerwen, simply because the Dutchman won’t let him off as easily as Jones or White. I went off of Van Gerwen on the 180s, but he showed his class, firing in 4 against Barney over just 3 sets, while Chisnall managed 3 in his 4 sets. Chisnall hasn’t been firing on all cylinders, and I like Van Gerwen here.
Michael van Gerwen to score most 180s Vs Dave Chisnall: Best price 11/8.
Recommend: 2 units.
