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Premier League 2012 Week 13 Tips
The penultimate night of Premier League Darts action before the play-offs begin takes us to Birmingham tonight, and there’s so much to play for, as three play-off places are yet to be confirmed. Simon Whitlock starts the evening’s procedings, taking on Andy Hamilton. Gary Anderson then looks to salvage his Premier League season against Raymond van Barneveld. Kevin Painter looks to keep his slim play-off dreams alive against the World Champion, Adrian Lewis, and Phil Taylor finishes off the night against his old adversary James Wade.
Remember if the Premier League Darts Premium Picks don’t finish the season in profit, the 2012 UK Open Premium Picks will be free to all Premier League Darts Premium Picks subscribers. As this is the first outing for our Premium Picks, I think it’s a fair trade!
Simon Whitlock versus Andy Hamilton.
A point here and Simon Whitlock will have confirmed his place in the play-offs. Anything other than a win for Andy Hamilton and he’s definitely out of the play-off race. Althuogh if results go against him later tonight, his play-off hopes will be dashed anyway.
Simon Whitlock comes back into the Premier League mix after some mised fortunates in Austria in the first European Tour event. Whitlock hit a 9-darter, but lost in the second round to Joe Cullen. Not that losing to Cullen is a terrible thing, but Whitlock will have hoped to have gone deep in Austria. Looking at his performance last week in the Premier League, his average of just over 100 flatters to deceive, as he lost 8-3 to Phil Taylor. He again lost conincingly to Taylor while putting in a fantastic average. Prior to that, he averaged just under 90 in his win over Raymond van Barneveld. So not scintilating form, but decent enough.
Andy Hamilton was another second round loser in Austria, losing to Dave Chisnall. Hamilton’s been in a bit of decent form in the Premier League recently, taking a point from Gary Anderson, James Wade and Raymond van Barneveld over the past three nights of Premier League action. His average for those three weeks was 96.16, so he’s playing reasonably well, 3 points above his tournament average.
Whitlock is obviously the easy pick here, given that he’s sitting second in the Premier League, and he’s taking on a man sitting second bottom of the table. However, Hamilton’s form over recent weeks is not to be sniffed at. However, there’s no great value to be had in the winner market. But I do believe there is value to be had in the 180s market, as I believe it’s going to be a long match, with both men fighting tooth and nail to win it. There’s going to be lots of chances for maximums, and both men are capable of scoring them freely. So, if we can get the full 14 legs, which is definitely possible, we could see well over the line of 6.5.
Total number of 180s in Whitlock versus Hamilton match over 6.5: 5/6 @ 888.com.
Recommend: 3 units.
Gary Anderson versus Raymond van Barneveld.
Both men come back from Austria having been defeated by Justin Pipe. Pipe beat Anderson 6-2 in the third round, while Barney lost 6-3 in the semi-final. The run of both men is indicative of the year they’ve had so far – Anderson is floundering, while Barney is putting some good runs together.
Anderson will have gained some confidence from last week’s fightback against Adrian Lewis to get a point. He was on the brink of defeat, then snatched a point in remarkable fashion. His average of 99.26 was more like the Gary Anderson of old. It’s just a shame he has little or nothing to play for, other than pride, in this year’s Premier League. Anderson has the least 180s in this year’s competition, and has the second lowest tournament average, so it’s back to the drawing board for the Scotsman.
Raymond van Barneveld’s form is up and down like a yo-yo. After back-to-back floor tournament wins, he put in a shocker against Simon Whitlock. He put in some great performances in the Premier League, but he’s still sitting outside of the play-off places. He has the second highest tournament average, and the third most 180s. So it’s not like he’s playing bad darts, it’s just that his form has been somewhat erratic. That being said, his run in Austria was impressive, even though he came up short – beating Richie Burnett, Mark Webster, Colin Osborne and Arron Monk en route to the semis.
It’s hard to see why Anderson would be motivated here, while Barney has everything to play for. I know I said the same about Anderson last week, but this time there really is nothing left to play for. Barney’s a fighter and he’ll know a win here puts him in with a shout of getting into the play-offs once again. I couldn’t believe the prices when I saw them, as I thought Barney would be a bit shorter. Plus, if you want to keep things simple, through the Justin Pipe form line, Barney took one more leg from Pipe than Anderson did! We have to be on the man with everything to play for here, especially as his price is on the big side, and the stats do point us in the Dutchman’s direction, too.
Raymond van Barneveld to beat Gary Anderson: 11/10 @ 888.com.
Recommend: 4 units.
Kevin Painter versus Adrian Lewis.
Like every match tonight, this one is huge. A win for Painter keeps his hopes alive, while a win for Lewis means he could confirm his place in the play-offs, should Barney have lost earlier in the previous match. So all to play for, and The Artist will be hoping to keep his play-offs dreams alive for another week.
A third round exit for Kevin Painter in Austria over the weekend, losing 6-3 to Dave Chisnall. To be fair to Painter, Chisnall averaged 113 in that match, hitting eight maximums, so losing 6-3 isn’t the worst result in the world. His two wins (over Johnny Haines and Mark Dudbridge) didn’t signal amazing form, but he did enough to show he’s playing reasonably well. He’s actually playing better than people would have expected, picking up a win against Gary Anderson two weeks ago, and following it up with a draw against James Wade, where he averaged 99.14. So definitely not the worst form Painter’s been in for a long time!
Adrian Lewis should have had a play-off place wrapped up, but he couldn’t finish off Gary Anderson. Lewis was seemingly coasting last week in Liverpool, before being clawed back by the Scotsman to finish the match 7-7. To be fair to Lewis, he posted an average of 98.15, which is just below his 101.90 the week before in his win over Phil Taylor. In fact, his average over the last 3 weeks is 101.58, which is well above his 97.48 average. So that’s a definite sign Lewis is playing well. He didn’t travel to Austria, citing illness. To be honest, I think he realised that this week in the Premier League was huge for him, so he wanted to be fresh. He can afford not to travel, to be fair – he is the two-time World Champion, after all!
The question is can Painter reproduce the form he’s shown over the recent weeks? I’d like to think he’d make this a fight, but Lewis has been playing well, and coming off the back of a rest week a few weeks ago, he went and demolished Phil Taylor, so clearly breaks are doing him the world of good. I do expect a Lewis win, but at around 1/2 the price is a bit prohibitive, given Jackpot’s wayward mentality at times. However, the handicap line is interesting here. It’s -2.5 legs, and Lewis won their previous encounter 8-3, comfortably beating the handicap. If the break has done Lewis as much good as we think it could, Painter might just end up on the end of a hiding. I like this line a lot, so as long as Lewis wins 8-5 or better, we’re quids in.
Adrian Lewis -2.5 legs to beat Kevin Painter: 10/11 @ 888.com.
Recommend: 3.5 units.
James Wade versus Phil Taylor.
Perhaps the biggest rivalry in darts in recent years, and this match is huge for James Wade. If Wade wins, he’s confirmed for the play-odds if Barney has lost earlier on. Taylor doesn’t need the win here, but he’s always looking to win, it’s the way The Power plays.
Phil Taylor missed Austria due to “illness”. I think he had a case of the can’t-be-arsed’s. Taylor doesn’t need to add a trip to Europe on top of all the travelling for the Premier League, he doesn’t play many floor events, so he’s always nicely rested for the big occasions. He’s got an average of 107.48 for the tournament, with 46 maximums – second highest in the league, behind Adrian Lewis. He’s done everything in the Premier League, and there’s not much left to say about his current form.
A huge week for James Wade. He played some excellent darts to reach the final in Austria, losing out to Justin Pipe. Wade picked up the huge scalps of Dave Chisnall, Wes Newton and Steve Beaton along the way, and also eliminated the in-form Prakesh Jiwa in the first round, so he’s in good form. The one worry is that he’s had two draws in the past two weeks in the Premier League, against opponents he’d have expected to beat (Painter and Hamilton). He’s not closing out his matches, and he’ll need to do that against The Power. But he’s playing well, and his trip to Austria will have been worthwhile to help keep his form up.
The worry for Wade here is that a fresh Taylor is a dangerous Taylor. A week off for Phil, while Wade headed straight to Austria after the Premier League last week, then a full weekend of darts, so we know who’s going to be the fresher of the two. Phil’s going to have been at home in Stoke, then packed his bags and made the short trip to Birmingham, while Wade’s been here, there and everywhere, before heading to Birmingham. Taylor won their last encounter 8-2, but I can’t see it happening this time, as Wade’s playing a lot better at the moment. However, I think we’re going to see a Taylor win. The question is, where do we go for a bet? Well, I think we have to look at the 180s again. Wade’s 180 scoring has improved all season, while Taylor’s record speaks for itself. If we get around 13 legs, both men should be good for around 4, although Taylor can easily score twice that if he’s in the mood, and the same applies to Wade. The line is 6.5, so we’re going in for our last bet of the night.
Over 6.5 180s in the Wade versus Taylor match: 4/5 @ 888.com.
Recommend: 3.5 units.
And that’s all from Week 13 of the PDC Premier League 2012 Premium Darts Betting Tips from Birmingham. Remember to check back next week for more darts betting tips, this time coming from my favourite darts venue of all, the Metro Radio Arena in Newcastle.
