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Premier League 2012 Week 4 Tips
Another frustrating night of Premier League darts last week – we went 2-2, taking us to 4-8, but it could have been so different if Raymond van Barneveld had been playing anyone other than Phil Taylor. Barney put in the best performance I’ve seen from him for a long, long time, yet Taylor put in a ridiculously high average (the second highest in Premier League history) and didn’t seem to miss much.
In the other matches, Gary Anderson showed he was finding his form, dismantling James Wade 8-5. Andy Hamilton kept up his strong performances, outscoring the World Champion, Adrian Lewis, in a 7-7 draw, getting a modicum of revenge for the World Championship Final back in January. Finally, Kevin Painter punished 13 missed doubles from Simon Whitlock to get an 8-3 win in a solid display against one of the most in-form players on the PDC tour.
The Premier League roadshow rolls into Exeter this week, with Phil Taylor leading the way undefeated and averaging 111.32 for the tournament. Can anyone stop The Power? Well, Simon Whitlock will be hoping he can. In the other matches, Gary Anderson takes in Adrian Lewis in a repeat of the 2011 World Championship Final, Barney takes on Andy Hamilton and to kick things off Kevin Painter faces James Wade. It’s an interesting night of darts with some potentially fantastic matches.
Kevin Painter versus James Wade.
Kevin Painter is sitting third in the Premier League table after three weeks, and most people, including myself, would have put him in the other half of the table, possibly even propping it up. However, two good performances and one unlucky result against Phil Taylor has meant he’s made a promising start to his first foray into the world of the Premier League. He’s averaging 90.57 over three matches, with 6 maximums and a highest checkout of 134. It’s not amazing figures, but he’s doing enough to get over the line and that’s all that counts. There have been no floor tournaments for a couple of weeks, so all we have to go off is the Premier League fixtures of the last couple of weeks, and Painter does look in decent form.
In comparison, James Wade looks in woeful form. He’s without a win in the first three weeks and I don’t think many would have picked him to be propping up the table with a leg count of -10. It’s one of the surprises of the tournament so far. However, he’s averaging 94.19 and fired in 7 maximums with a highest checkout of 126. He’s nothing if consistent and has been showing signs of form over the past three weeks. However, he’s just not been consistent and he’s always worrying when out of form, as his head is never there 100% throughout a match.
The bookies have Wade the marginal favourite here at around Evens, while Painter is around 7/4. It’s strange, because if this was Week One, you’d be looking at Wade being a short order favourite. So, for that reason, Wade does look a bit of value. You can’t forget he is averaging highest than Painter, and something does have to click with him, just like it did with Gary Anderson. Wade is a class act and anything around Evens is good value against a player that whenin form he would be beating 9/10.
James Wade to beat Kevin Painter: Evens @ 888.com.
Recommend: 3 units.
Raymond van Barneveld versus Andy Hamilton.
Barney, Barney, Barney! Against anyone else, his performance last week would have been enough for at least a point, probably a win. However, instead of being in the top half of the table, he’s languishing second bottom, ahead only of the winless James Wade. He has a tournament average of 101.07 and he’s looking like the Barney of old, firing in 13 maximums so far and just looking confident in his game. That’s the thing with Barney – he needs confidence. If he has that confidence, he’s going to go to levels that we know he can play at. It’s a good sign for the Dutchman and hopefully he’s not despondent after losing to the maestro of darts last week. If he can take some pride out of his defeat, Andy Hamilton might just have a bit of trouble on his hands.
The Hammer has one win and one draw in the first three weeks of his Premier League debut and he’s looked like he belongs there, drawing with the World Champion and taking the scalp of James Wade in Week One. His average of 92.57 doesn’t do his scoring justice, as he’s scored 16 maximums, the most in the Premier League, averaging just over 5 a game, which is impressive, considering that’s more than a man averaging 111 for the tournament! However, it does show he’s prone to quite a few slack visits in between his maximums, but if he can shut them out, he’s definitely going to be a challenge to any player in the league.
The bookies seem to think this is a tough one to call, but I was really impressed by Barney last week. He showed he was in great form, and I can’t see Andy Hamilton averaging anywhere near what Taylor did, so if the same Barney can turn up this week, it should be game, set and match to the Dutchman.
The other interesting line is the 6.5 for the number of 180s. Hamilton is averaging over 5 a game, while Barney is averaging just over 4, so between them their average should be around 9-10. with the line at 6.5 and both men looking to put in a big performance, I think the 6.5 is very, very short. So we’ll go in twice on this match and hope we can get a bit of a favour from both men.
Over 6.5 180s in Andy Hamilton versus Raymond van Barneveld match: 4/5 @ 888.com.
Recommend: 3 units.
Raymond van Barneveld to beat Andy Hamilton: Evens @ 888.com.
Recommend: 2 units.
Simon Whitlock versus Phil Taylor.
Nothing short of a terrible night in Belfast for Simon Whitlock last week. He couldn’t buy a double and he ended up being smashed 8-3 by Kevin Painter. His averages have been solid week in week out, but his doubling and maximum scoring still hasn’t hit full stride yet, but once it does, he’s a match for anyone. But an average of 94.57 and a highest checkout of 96 just doesn’t seem anywhere near enough to take on the might of Phil Taylor in his current form.
What is there left to say about Phil Taylor in this year’s Premier League? We’re only three weeks in, but he’s already put in two 112+ averages, giving him a tournament average of 111.32, 15 maximums and a highest checkout of 147, which is the highest of the season so far. So he’s leading the way in both average and checkout, and just one short of most maximums.
Taylor at 4/9 sums up the problems Whitlock faces tonight. Taylor is just in imperious form and even a Dutchman averaging 106 couldn’t get close to him. Whitlock’s averaging nowhere near that and doesn’t seem to be able to rely on his usual impressive checkouts to keep him close to opponents.
It’s not easy trying to find some value in the markets, but there is one interesting line in the handicaps market. Taylor at -2.5 legs looks interesting, simply because a high-scoring Barney could only take 4 legs off of Taylor, and Whitlock doesn’t look in that kind of form, so he might just scrape 4 legs here, maybe even 5, but 6 seems a bit of a stretch.
Phil Taylor -2.5 legs to beat Simon Whitlock: 4/5 @ 888.com.
Recommend: 3.5 units.
Gary Anderson versus Adrian Lewis.
A mouthwatering clash to end the night in Exeter. Gary Anderson got a good win last week against James Wade, with an average of 102.20. It was a Gary Anderson we hadn’t seen all year, and it was a great sight to behold. The fact he averaged under 90 for the first two weeks shows hos inconsistent he actually is. So we can’t read too much into the high average, especially as his tournament average is still below 90. But it was good to see him back in some kind of form, especially coming into such a big match.
Adrian Lewis has been ever consistent in the first three weeks, with three draws from three matches (against Taylor, Barney and Hamilton), an average of 98.55 and 14 maximums. Add in a 140 highest checkout and it’s fair to say he’s playing some good darts. It just seems like he can’t close matches out, or struggling to dominate early on. And it’s not going to get any easier against the Flying Scotsman.
So where do I fall on this? It’s simple – I can’t pick a winner here and the draw is too short to be of any value. While I think Anderson is capable of great things, Lewis is exactly the same, and both men can be inconsistent, throwing in the usual junk. But there is an interesting market for player to score the highest checkout. We all know Anderson struggles on his doubling and Lewis loves a big checkout, so the 4/5 for Lewis to put in the highest checkout looks very tempting to me, especially as he’s already put in a 140 and Anderson just hasn’t been impressive in two of his three matches. So, even if Anderson does win, Lewis is capable of the big outs, and he’s done the business for us in the past, so we have to go in at a decent price.
Adrian Lewis to score highest checkout versus Gary Anderson: 4.5 @ 888.com.
Recommend: 2.5 units.
And that’s all from Week 4 of the PDC Premier League 2012 Premium Darts Betting Tips from Exeter. Remember to check back next week for more of the same.
