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First of all my apologies for the radio silence over the last week.
There was still football to cover but I was just busy with a few other things. I did want to dive into some statistical picks in the lesser European leagues however I never quite found the time.
I’d also like to start work on a basic corners model just for fun on here however never found the time to sit down and start plugging data into a spreadsheet.
I’ll hopefully get the football tips going again on a daily basis over the course of the next week or so.
For now let’s look at the Scottish Premier League again. It was a slight loss last wee as we went 1-2. Motherwell blew it for us in the double and Rangers couldn’t quite cover the -2.5 handicap.
We won with the St Mirren match to be a draw though which was 3.25 odds. Glad I stayed away from that Hibs game. Like I said they just can’t get going with build up attacks.
Let’s look at this weeks games:
SPL Betting Tips for August 29-30, 2020:
0.5u on Under 2.5 goals in Dundee Utd vs Kilmarnock at 1.66 odds.
Honestly not a massive fan of that bet however I do like to bet everything when getting into the xG stuff here. Neither team is creating any sort of quality chance and xG per chance is only 0.10. Hard to see goals in this one.
1u on Ross County or Draw at 1.72 odds.
I actually think Ross County will maybe sneak this one due to a set piece goal. However I don’t have the data to back it up fully yet so will go with the safer bet. It’s a very close game or should be based on the data so far.
1u on St Mirren/St Johnstone Draw at 3.25 odds.
This is a one game could make it go tits up type of bet.
Neither team can attack or do any sort of build up and neither team can counter so you can’t really see many goals and I like them to cancel each other out.
The under 2.5 is 1.53 which is just not playable.
2u on Hamilton vs Rangers – Both Teams to Score – 2.25 odds.
Looking at the metrics I love Rangers clean sheet record to get busted here. I’ve got to assume they will score as well. Hamilton have 25% xG from counter attacks while Rangers have 31% xG conceded from counters. Rangers will likely dominate possession but will be countered. My favourite bet of the week. Like I’ve said we don’t have a ton of data to go on early in the season but this one stands out.
1u on Celtic -2.5 at 2.10 odds.
I want to back Celtic to win to nil however no value in it at 1.57 odds. Motherwell have lost Turnbull so that wll seriously hurt them with set pieces. I have to hope after midweek Celtic want to prove a point.
2u on Hibs/Averdeen over 2.25 at 2.20 odds.
Could be a great match especially if Aberdeen concede first. Aberdeen have 36% of xG from build up attacks and 39% from offensive attacks. Hibs meanwhile have 34% from counters and 19% from turnovers. This has all the makings of a cracker of a match.
(Odds on this page are correct as of 2020/08/28 12:31:52 PM EST but are subject to change)
