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Any Darts fans out there? C’mon Luke Littler, take it home. Just an amazing story.
After a positive 2022, golf betting tips was in the negative last year for about 9.02u.
It happens as variance in golf is mental, but I must admit last year just felt off to me.
It’s a bit hard to put into words – but when I had a losing season in 2021, I could look at it and say “yep this was just variance”. Soooo much bad luck etc. I’d come close in so many tournaments and be able to look back and say “those were the correct picks and had value”.
Last year? I dunno I just didn’t feel that as much. Not sure why or if I have to change something in my model. I’ve made minor modifications over the years but it has generally served me well since I started in 2014 (holy shit, 10 years), and stands at +627.08u profit over that period.
With SG data becoming more accessible, I’ve incorporated that in more over the last couple of years. But even then – last year when I wasn’t “feeling it” I would run two separate models one not really factoring it in and compare – and still wasn’t happy.
So…..we’ll see how it goes. Last year could be a blip. Maybe I just got a bit demotivated due to everything happening with LIV. I know that I was certainly demotivated enough not to cover the likes of LPGA (which I love to do and has been very profitable for me).
I’ll give it a couple of months and see how I feel and if I’m feeling the same way as last year – maybe take a break and go back to the drawing board. I have made one notable change in that SG data is MORE of a factor than before by quite the margin.
Also quick note for simplicity sake on here, I’m changing the unit amounts for this season. Instead of $125 per u, it will be $100 per u. Just makes it easier to do the math etc I find.
Funny thing is – I was kinda dreading golf tips when the New Year hit. But man – sitting here writing all of the above and now crunching the data – fucking love it! Let’s rock this year.
This week we have The Sentry and it’s changed this year for a bigger field.
Weather wise it looks like it will be similar to last year.
Going to ease my way in and split a unit so all bets are a 1/4u for a total of $25 each.
Ludvig Aberg To Win @ 14/1
That’s to win not E/W. The system just loves him here. And I do think he’s going to be a total “go big or go home” type of bet where he either plays fantastic, or drops hard so I’m fine with backing that. Bet365 also offered a profit boost on him which was nice.
Collin Morikawa To Win @ 12/1
His odds have dropped slightly if he was 14/1 I’d probs back him E/W. Feels a bit weird taking two guys to win instead of making one E/W but eh. He has always performed well here, and I think mentally he is in a great place after taking down the ZOZO. Just have to hope his putting is on point which is key here.
Two E/W bets at above 20/1 odds only on Patreon
