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Three MLB System tips for September 11th, 2021 MLB Betting Tips.
A lot of focus is probably on football this weekend and Graeme has you covered for all that. I would sometimes skip this weekend because of that, but these are three solid picks that the System has a lot of faith in.
MLB Betting Tips:
All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.
Colorado Rockies at Philadelphia Phillies Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Freeland | 111 | 146 | 91 | 77 | 104 | 21 | 92 | 12 |
| PHI | 98 | 103 | 102 | 95 | 17 | 114 | 6 | |
| Zack Wheeler | 60 | 59 | 124 | 60 | 106 | 25 | 91 | 11 |
| COL | 98 | 99 | 88 | 81 | 30 | 78 | 26 |
This is a very easy pick to make. Zack Wheeler is one of the best pitchers on the board, pitching at home and going against an offense that has just a 75 wRC+ against righties on the season.
Kyle Freeland has a 4.69 ERA/4.92 FIP on the season and is facing a Phillies offense that does very well against lefties. He’s struggled with homeruns this season and the Phillies can hit them.
Pick: Bet Phillies -1.5
USA: Best Odds: -101 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.99 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/09/11 12:21:50 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Milwaukee Brewers at Cleveland Indians Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corbin Burnes | 37 | 26 | 147 | 55 | 103 | 17 | 140 | 29 |
| CLE | 101 | 101 | 94 | 92 | 22 | 91 | 20 | |
| Zach Plesac | 111 | 117 | 73 | 63 | 97 | 10 | 130 | 27 |
| MIL | 97 | 108 | 103 | 94 | 18 | 103 | 11 |
I always have to double check my numbers on Corbin Burnes, but no, he’s really that good. He has a 2.38 ERA/1.58 FIP on the season and a huge strikeout rate to go with it. A great match-up for him here as the Indians have a 90 wRC+ against righties.
Zach Plesax is hittable and the Brewers have been doing well of late. It only takes on run with this Burnes starts.
Pick: Bet Brewers -0.5 First 5 Innings
USA: Best Odds: -128 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.78 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/09/11 12:21:50 PM EST but are subject to change.)
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Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elieser Hernandez | 137 | 206 | 104 | 50 | 90 | 4 | 69 | 2 |
| ATL | 113 | 106 | 102 | 100 | 10 | 100 | 15 | |
| Charlie Morton | 78 | 70 | 122 | 89 | 97 | 10 | 87 | 8 |
| MIA | 81 | 117 | 84 | 87 | 25 | 69 | 29 |
This is one of those games where I just don’t want to lay the runs, but I do want to bet on the Braves. I think the offense can do very well here today so let’s just bet on them only.
Not a huge sample on Elieser Hernandez, but he’s been hit pretty hard in the starts he has made. He has a 3.90 ERA/5.57 FIP on the season with a huge homerun rate. The Braves just so happen to be one of the top homerun hitting teams in the league.
Pick: Bet Braves Over 4.5 Runs
USA: Best Odds: -120 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.83 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/09/11 12:21:50 PM EST but are subject to change.)
