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Three MLB System tips for September 14th, 2021.
A 1-2 record last night with a big miss on Tampa and an under we missed by one run.
All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.
Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia Phillies Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Sampson | 141 | 180 | 81 | 49 | 106 | 25 | 106 | 25 |
| PHI | 98 | 103 | 102 | 95 | 17 | 107 | 10 | |
| Kyle Gibson | 89 | 53 | 81 | 103 | 106 | 25 | 106 | 25 |
| CHC | 100 | 120 | 88 | 91 | 24 | 98 | 16 |
The Cubs aren’t good. That’s the tip.
(Okay, I’ll write more.)
A small sample size on Adrian Sampson this season, but if you’ve seen this guy’s career you know what you are getting. He has a career 5.37 ERA/5.83 FIP and a sting in the KBO didn’t change that talent level.
Kyle Gibson has been solid this season with a 3.38 ERA/3.79 FIP.
Pick: Bet Phillies -1.5
USA: Best Odds: -110 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.9 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/09/14 12:54:48 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesus Luzardo | 141 | 165 | 95 | 129 | 90 | 4 | 91 | 5 |
| WSN | 94 | 97 | 97 | 100 | 10 | 114 | 8 | |
| Erick Fedde | 106 | 120 | 92 | 96 | 111 | 29 | 110 | 29 |
| MIA | 81 | 117 | 84 | 87 | 25 | 71 | 29 |
The Nationals are a very good offense against left handed pitchers. They have a 114 wRC+ on the season against lefties and face a very hittable one today in Jesus Luzardo. In twenty-one games this season, he has a 6.72 ERA/5.84 FIP. That’s bad.
Erick Fedde is nothing to get excited about, but the Marlins offense is in a bad way. A 88 wRC+ against righties on the season and a 71 wRC+ over the past two weeks.
Pick: Bet Nationals -0.5 First 5 Innings
USA: Best Odds: +100 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 2.0 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/09/14 12:54:48 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Oakland Athletics at Kansas City Royals Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frankie Montas | 80 | 76 | 115 | 81 | 102 | 16 | 103 | 19 |
| KCR | 86 | 93 | 83 | 87 | 25 | 85 | 22 | |
| Jackson Kowar | 141 | 122 | 79 | 157 | 103 | 17 | 102 | 16 |
| OAK | 101 | 98 | 104 | 103 | 8 | 117 | 6 |
This was one of those lines where I didn’t think that we’d be able to bet it. This is the System’s favorite tip of the day.
Jackson Kowar is a solid prospect, but he has proven to be not ready for prime time. He’s allowed at least two runs in every appearance this season and is coming off a game where he allowed six runs. The Oakland offense is hot of late with a 117 wRC+ over the past two weeks.
Frankie Montas has a 3.57 ERA/3.33 FIP on the year and faces an offense that has just an 83 wRC+ against righties on the season.
Pick: Bet Athletics -0.5 First 5 Innings
USA: Best Odds: -125 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.8 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/09/14 12:54:48 PM EST but are subject to change.)
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