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After a couple of days of going with the EPL picks based more on opinion than anything else, I’ve decided for Monday, September 16th 2018 to just focus 100% on stats based picks.
Just one of those days where I really feel like diving into a bunch of stats and then looking for value within the odds. Always fun when it works out and I don’t blame myself if it doesn’t. It’s the numbers damnit. It’s their fault.
Let’s get to it:
Chapecoense vs Internacional Betting Tips:
This is one where I liked a bet, then went to see the odds and they were so much higher than expected that it almost put me off it. Almost like “Wow you’re giving too much value I must be completely wrong”.
And hey maybe I am but despite the fact that Internacional have the 2nd best defense in the league and are playing 3rd bottom Chapecoense, I’m going with Over 2.5 Goals.
Yes Internacional are no slouches in the defense department but Chapecoense aren’t too bad offensively. They average 1 goal a game, are much better at home with a 5-5-1 record and I think can make a game of it.
They have the ability to score at home with an average of 1.45 goals per game. While Internacional are solid defensively I think Chapecoense can squeak in a goal. I do see why the odds are as high as they are at 2.70 but I think this one has value. Hey who knows maybe Internacional give them a thumping and put it over on their own.
(Odds on this page are correct as of 2018/09/16 8:10:35 AM EST but are subject to change)
Finnish Veikkausliiga Betting Tips:
Had some nice success in the Finnish Veikkausliiga last week and it’s at that sweet spot where I really feel I can trust the stats. Let’s see what we’ve got for Mondays games:
VPS Vaasa vs FC Ilves – Over 2.5 Goals: 2.20 odds for this one and I like it. Neither team is a slouch when it comes to scoring goals with both in the top half of the table for that. Defensively they’re not that great either with both conceding over 1 goal a game on average. Ilves actually have a pretty damn solid goalscoring record away with 1.69 goals on average scored while conceding 1.92. VPS are almost the weak link when it comes to the goal metrics. Over half of Ilves away games have went over 2.5 goals already this season. VPS have been a bit disappointing lately on the goalscoring front but I think they can get going here and this one should go over.
FC Inter to Win – Draw No Bet: 1.80 odds for this one. TPS are seriously struggling at the moment and are in danger of going bottom. FC Inter are a pretty solid away team. They’re no slouch away and while they are in a rut in terms of wins they know how poor TPS are and should go for it here. They’ve been competitive in most of their games except the HJK Helsinki one and I liked them getting that draw against VPS last time out.
HJK Helsinki To Win: FC Lahti are no slouches especially at home but I just think HJK Helsinki are too strong for them as they continue their bid to pull away from Rovaniemi. The Helsinki offense is too good and it will be tough for Lahti to keep up. What FC Lahti have going for them is a good defense but HJK have a much better one and Lahti are struggling form wise right now. 1.72 for that one makes it a play.
(Odds on this page are correct as of 2018/09/16 8:10:35 AM EST but are subject to change)
