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MLB and college football tips for September 1st, 2022.
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Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets Betting Tips:
LAD – Clayton Kershaw 2.64 ERA/2.72 FIP
NYM – Chris Bassitt 3.34 ERA/3.53 FIP
Not sure what I’m missing here with this total being set so high. This is a notorious pitcher’s park and there are two good ones on the mound today.
Dodgers offense is obviously amazing, but Bassitt has a 1.62 ERA/2.61 FIP over his past five starts. No homeruns, little walks, and lots of groundballs is a good way to keep the Dodgers offense quiet.
Kershaw is making his return from the injured list here, but he’s a guy I trust in that spot. He’s only come off the disabled list about 100 times in his career so far. The Mets offense has a 103 wRC+ against lefties so they are not likely to completely spoil his comeback.
Dodgers/Mets Under 4 First 5 Innings (-120)
Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Guardians Betting Tips:
BAL – Kyle Bradish 5.63 ERA/4.90 FIP
CLE – Shane Bieber 3.02 ERA/2.72 FIP
Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Tips:
MIL – Brandon Woodruff 3.31 ERA/3.21 FIP
ARI – Merrill Kelly 2.97 ERA/3.19 FIP
Woodruff has been more lucky than good of late. In four out of his past five starts he has an FIP over 5 and he’s given up six homeruns in that span. That is the one thing the Diamondbacks offense can do well and they are pretty hot right now with a 108 wRC+ over the past two weeks.
I can see a five inning start from him and then they turned to the bullpen which has been disastrous ever since the trade deadline with a 109 FIP- over the past month.
Kelly has been good to us this season, but he’s been pitching above his head with just a 6.2% HR/FB rate. Over the past three seasons that number has been at least 12.6% for him. He’s down a bit over his past five starts with a 3.34 ERA/3.43 FIP and today he gets a really tough match-up. The Brewers offense has a 108 wRC+ over the past two weeks and a 110 wRC+ against righties.
The Diamondbacks bullpen is in shambles right now with a 127 FIP- over the past two weeks.
Brewers/Diamondbacks Over 7.5 (-103)
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College Football Betting Tips:
West Virginia at Pittsburgh Betting Tips:
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Ball State at Tennessee Betting Tips:
There are a lot of potential underdog plays this week, but this is definitely not one of them.
Over the past four years, Tennessee has blown out their opponents on opening weekend, going 3-1 against the spread. The only loss was a 32 point win. I definitely see that trend continuing here and them blowing out Ball State in a big way.
The Ball State defense was bad last season and should be bad again this season.
Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker is getting some sleeper Heisman hype and he could end the season as an All-American. His top target will be Cedric Tillman and there is no one on Ball State who will be able to contain him.
The line is -35.5 right now, but I think I’d go to -38 on this one.
Tennessee -35.5
Penn State at Purdue Betting Tips:
New Mexico State at Minnesota Betting Tips:
NMSU just played on Saturday and now they head to Minnesota where they are a huge underdog. They only managed nine points in that game and Minnesota is a much better team than Nevada.
Minnesota is a -36 favorite, but that might be too rich for my blood because both of these offenses are just slow.
Jerry Kill runs an offense for the Aggies that is going to be one of the slowest in the nation while Minnesota is also slow. I just don’t see where all these points are going to come from.
New Mexico State/Minnesota Under 52.5
