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Three MLB System tips for September 20th, 2021.
Our great run in MLB continued on Saturday with a 2-0 record. Plus, I threw in a college football winner as well.
We also had two top-5 finishers in this weekend’s PGA event that cashed.
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MLB Betting Tips:
All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.
Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erick Fedde | 105 | 121 | 96 | 92 | 112 | 29 | 139 | 26 |
| MIA | 82 | 117 | 83 | 86 | 26 | 79 | 23 | |
| Jesus Luzardo | 143 | 165 | 91 | 128 | 91 | 5 | 105 | 15 |
| WSN | 94 | 95 | 98 | 101 | 9 | 112 | 6 |
Getting some big time deja vu with this one. Turns out, we bet this exact match-up back on the 14th. Here’s what I said then:
The Nationals are a very good offense against left handed pitchers. They have a 114 wRC+ on the season against lefties and face a very hittable one today in Jesus Luzardo. In twenty-one games this season, he has a 6.72 ERA/5.84 FIP. That’s bad.
Erick Fedde is nothing to get excited about, but the Marlins offense is in a bad way. A 88 wRC+ against righties on the season and a 71 wRC+ over the past two weeks.
Not much has changed. The Nationals are still great against lefties, the Marlins still stink, and we’re still betting Nats F5.
Pick: Bet Nationals First 5 Innings
USA: Best Odds: -127 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.78 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/09/20 1:04:28 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Baltimore Orioles at Philadelphia Phillies Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Means | 101 | 137 | 97 | 56 | 105 | 23 | 137 | 25 |
| PHI | 99 | 102 | 102 | 95 | 16 | 109 | 8 | |
| Ranger Suarez | 69 | 35 | 109 | 104 | 108 | 28 | 146 | 29 |
| BAL | 97 | 105 | 89 | 92 | 22 | 95 | 19 |
We’re betting on the bullpens to get us to the over here. Both of these bullpens are below average and even worse over the past two weeks. Baltimore’s bullpen has a 137 FIP over the past two weeks while the Phillies are at 146 over the same period. That’s really bad!
Ranger Suarez has been very solid as a starter with a 1.85 ERA/2.68 FIP, but he’s averaging less than five innings per start. So either he goes deeper and potentially gets exposed or he has a short night and we get into that juicy bullpen.
Pick: Bet Orioles/Phillies Over 8 Runs
USA: Best Odds: -102 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.98 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/09/20 1:04:28 PM EST but are subject to change.)
St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Woodford | 122 | 99 | 74 | 103 | 99 | 13 | 79 | 4 |
| MIL | 96 | 107 | 105 | 93 | 19 | 97 | 16 | |
| Freddy Peralta | 72 | 67 | 146 | 115 | 100 | 14 | 95 | 9 |
| STL | 95 | 100 | 87 | 95 | 16 | 97 | 16 |
These offenses are about even across the board so this pick is all about the starter match-up.
Freddy Peralta is having a great season with a huge strikeout rate and a 2.57 ERA/3.05 FIP. For the season, the Cardinals have a 91 wRC+ against righties.
Jake Woodford is not a big strikeout guy and not all that impressive with a 4.30 ERA/4.98 FIP. He’s been slightly below average with his walk rate and the Brewers as a team have a high walk rate.
Pick: Bet Brewers -0.5 First 5 Innings
USA: Best Odds: -135 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.74 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/09/20 1:04:28 PM EST but are subject to change.)
