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MLB tips for September 20th, 2022.
3-3 last night.
The Marlins stung us again last night. I’ve looked at their lineups and I feel safe in saying this makes no sense. They aren’t good. That’s MLB predictions for you.
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New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers Betting Tips:
NYM – Carlos Carrasco 3.70 ERA/3.40 FIP
MIL – Aaron Ashby 4.58 ERA/4.05 FIP
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San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies Betting Tips:
SFG – John Brebbia 2.90 ERA/3.24 FIP (Opener)
COL – Kyle Freeland 4.43 ERA/4.31 FIP
St. Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres Betting Tips:
STL – Adam Wainwright 3.29 ERA/3.43 FIP
SDP – Mike Clevinger 4.47 ERA/5.05 FIP
Clevinger has been getting killed lately and this match-up could be big trouble for him. He has a 7.03 ERA/7.88 FIP over his past five starts with a 3.33 HR/9 rate. Now he gets to face an offense with the top two NL MVP candidates. Good luck, dude.
Wainwright has been worse on the road, but the Padres offense is not very scary right now. I think he can get away with two runs, maybe even three here and still get the win.
Pick of the day: Cardinals First 5 Innings Moneyline (-110)
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Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics Betting Tips:
SEA – Luis Castillo 2.68 ERA/2.99 FIP
OAK – JP Sears 3.90 ERA/4.66 FIP
This is the System’s most lopsided game of the day and is the first blow away -1.5 play I’ve seen in awhile. I haven’t had the best record on those this season, but this one looks fantastic.
Castillo has been lights out with a 2.51 ERA/2.34 FIP over his past five starts. He faces a very weak Oakland team here that has just a 83 wRC+ against righties this season and an 88 wRC+ over the past month. The Seattle bullpen has been very good over the past month.
Sears had a good start with Oakland, but has been getting rocked lately with a 6.65 ERA/6.85 FIP over his past five. He’s low strikeouts, high walks, and high homeruns. A perfect target and the bullpen behind him is not very good.
The Mariners have a 110 wRC+ against lefties this season and they should get Julio Rodriguez back in the lineup tonight. I’d feel better knowing that for sure, but I’m making this bet right now before he’s official and the price goes up.
Mariners -1.5 (-123)
