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Four MLB System tips for September 24th, 2021.
A 1-0 record in MLB on Wednesday.
All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.
New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerrit Cole | 64 | 86 | 148 | 66 | 88 | 2 | 81 | 7 |
| BOS | 110 | 99 | 98 | 107 | 6 | 126 | 3 | |
| Nathan Eovaldi | 65 | 56 | 112 | 52 | 94 | 8 | 91 | 9 |
| NYY | 99 | 106 | 122 | 101 | 9 | 124 | 5 |
You know the deal with this one. The rivalry and all that, yadda yadda yadda.
The margins here are pretty thin, but the Red Sox look like a good value here. Cole is a better strikeout pitcher, but Eovaldi is right there with him in every other category. He allows slightly less homeruns and walks, and I like his match-up better. The Yankees have just a 98 wRC+ against righties on the season.
Gerrit Cole is the man, but the Red Sox are extremely tough. They have a 108 wRC+ against righties and are on fire of late with a 126 wRC+ over the past two weeks.
The margins are thin here and we’ll be happy if we end up with a push, but this is worth a bet.
Pick: Bet Red Sox First 5 Innings
USA: Best Odds: +100 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 2.0 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/09/24 11:05:28 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cease | 81 | 89 | 137 | 115 | 86 | 1 | 70 | 2 |
| CLE | 101 | 102 | 93 | 93 | 19 | 85 | 23 | |
| Shane Bieber | 73 | 85 | 147 | 101 | 100 | 14 | 111 | 19 |
| CHW | 97 | 100 | 113 | 109 | 3 | 118 | 6 |
A great pitching match-up here.
Bieber is the better pitcher with a 3.28 ERA/3.10 FIP on the season with a huge strikeout rate. He has a tough match-up today against the White Sox who have a 107 wRC+ on the season against rigthies. I would not be surprised if he has a great start here, but he can’t pitch every inning. The Indians bullpen is dead average on the season and has a 111 FIP- over the past two weeks.
Dylan Cease just needs to keep up. The Indians offense is pretty weak with a 90 wRC+ against righties and just a 85 wRC+ over the past two weeks. The White Sox bullpen is the best around with a 70 FIP- over the past two weeks.
Pick: Bet White Sox Moneyline
USA: Best Odds: -122 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.89 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/09/24 11:05:28 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Berrios | 84 | 81 | 110 | 69 | 102 | 19 | 146 | 30 |
| MIN | 107 | 100 | 103 | 100 | 11 | 105 | 14 | |
| Bailey Ober | 108 | 152 | 108 | 62 | 104 | 22 | 83 | 8 |
| TOR | 116 | 88 | 98 | 114 | 2 | 125 | 4 |
Jose Berrios gets the ball here and the Jays need him to come out strong. They are a game behind the Yankees for the last Wild Card spot and tonight is a great spot to potentially get into a tie. Berrios has a 3.45 ERA/3.57 FIP on the season. The Twins are a good offense so it won’t be easy, but the Blue Jays should put up some runs for him.
Pretty simple math when it comes to the Jays side. They have a 113 wRC+ against right handed pitchers and an outstanding homerun rate.. Bailey Ober has a 108 FIP- and a huge HR/9 rate.
Pick: Bet Jays -0.5 First 5 Innings
USA: Best Odds: -105 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.95 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/09/24 11:05:28 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Gilbert | 85 | 97 | 114 | 59 | 89 | 3 | 121 | 26 |
| LAA | 97 | 103 | 87 | 95 | 16 | 80 | 26 | |
| Jose Suarez | 93 | 79 | 92 | 104 | 97 | 10 | 108 | 15 |
| SEA | 93 | 110 | 106 | 93 | 19 | 103 | 16 |
This is another tip where the margins are razor thin, but the Mariners are on fire right now and the Angels are firmly in “who cares?” mode.
Logan Gilbert has been an outstanding call-up for the Mariners. He has a 4.74 ERA/3.55 FIP on the season and draws a nice match-up here against a struggling Angels offense. They have just an 80 wRC+ over the past two weeks.
Jose Suarez is solid, but the Mariners are hitting better of late with a 103 wRC+ over the past two weeks.
I’d be happy with a push here, but the way the Mariners have been playing of late they are worth a bet.
Pick: Bet Mariners First 5 Innings Moneyline
USA: Best Odds: -125 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.8 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/09/24 11:05:28 AM EST but are subject to change.)
