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I’ve been playing around with expected stats like xg and xga etc this week, and want to try to apply it to the upcoming weekend in the Scottish Premier League.
They’re some of my favourite stats as they really go beyond the result and give you an idea of how teams are really performing etc. This is something I used last week in regard to the Kilmarnock vs Celtic game and it worked out wonders there.
Of course you can’t JUST go by those stats. For example just because a team may have a much higher xg than goals scored, it doesn’t mean they’re going to come out the next week and give someone a hiding.
But it’s a good baseline and gives you an idea of how teams are performing and I use that to come up with a few potential tips, then analyze everything else before deciding on a tip.
These will all be 0.5u plays.
Celtic -1: 2.10 odds for this. Celtic obviously go into this one struggling a bit including that 0-0 draw with St Mirren and the 2-1 loss to Kilmarnock. However their performances at home have saw them pick up 3 wins out of 3 games and I like that to continue. Defensively both these teams do a good job however Celtic offensively are creating the chances and I like it to happen here. Celtic have actually only conceded 2 goals in open play which is impressive and their only issue is they’re not finishing – they’re still creating the chances. Like them to get a solid 2-0 win here.
Dundee/Hamilton Under 2.5 Goals: Dundee are one of those teams where when you look at the stats you think the goals have to come. However their xG just gets worse as time goes on and they’re really struggling offensively. Hamilton came out of nowhere with that odd 3-0 win over St. Mirren but I think that is an anomaly. Going with under 2.5 goals at 1.66 odds.
Hearts Over 1.5 Goals: I’m backing the Hearts offense to score at least two here. They’re creating goals like crazy and putting them away for the most part. They were unlucky against Livi but have an xG of 2.03 goals pre game looking at their opponents I think they can get the goals here. 1.90 odds.
Kilmarnock 1-0: Yes a corret score prediction. 7.00 odds on this one. Motherwell struggle to score yet its funny looking at the two games where they scored. They got 3 and their creation was excellent yet the other games nothing. I think this will be a tight one and Killie to squeak it 1-0. Of course you could place various bets based on that for safer odds if you want.
Hibs To Win to Nil: This means Hibs win without conceding a goal. St Miren offensively are very poor and only average 5.17 shots pre game which is brutal. Hibs are finishing right now and I like them to get the win while keeping a shutout. 2.50 odds.
Rangers/Livingston Both Teams to Score: Lot of interesting stats differences for Rangers when looking at home stats vs away stats. The Livingston attack is solid and while their defense is quite good too Rangers should be able to score at least one against them. 1.95 odds for this.
Like I said I’m going with a new stat system for this so it could end up being an utter disaster so like I said proceed with caution and only small bets.
