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Four MLB System tips for September 29th, 2021.
A 1-3 record last night. The lesson: don’t bet on eliminated teams like the Cubs.
All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.
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New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerrit Cole | 64 | 86 | 148 | 66 | 87 | 2 | 62 | 1 |
| TOR | 116 | 88 | 98 | 114 | 2 | 78 | 23 | |
| Jose Berrios | 84 | 81 | 110 | 69 | 103 | 19 | 118 | 25 |
| NYY | 99 | 106 | 122 | 101 | 9 | 130 | 3 |
I was a bit surprised to see the Yankees weren’t a bigger favorite here. They’ve played four games against their Wild Card rivals, the Red Sox and Jays, and won them all so far. The offense is absolutely on fire with a 130 wRC+ over the past two weeks and the bullpen is lights out right now.
Berrios has been decent, but this is a tough match-up and the offense behind him has struggled of late with a 78 wRC+ over the past two weeks. The bullpen has been a mess all season and hasn’t gotten better. The Yanks should take this one with Cole on the mound.
Pick: Bet Yankees Moneyline
USA: Best Odds: -106 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.94 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/09/29 11:41:30 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Cincinnati Reds at Chicago White Sox Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonny Gray | 84 | 93 | 117 | 93 | 103 | 19 | 63 | 2 |
| CHW | 97 | 100 | 113 | 109 | 3 | 115 | 7 | |
| Carlos Rodon | 60 | 71 | 152 | 77 | 86 | 1 | 76 | 3 |
| CIN | 104 | 105 | 96 | 97 | 13 | 116 | 6 |
The White Sox are a pretty big favorite here overall, but the five inning line is a lot closer. It looks like a great value to lay the -0.5 here.
Carlos Rodon has been fantastic this season with a 2.47 ERA/2.63 FIP. He faces a Reds offense that simply cannot hit left-handed pitching. They have just a 81 wRC+ against southpaws on the season. Rodon has been much better in his home starts as well.
The White Sox face Sonny Gray who has done well this season, but they also crush right handed pitching. They have a 107 wRC+ against righties on the year.
Pick: Bet White Sox -0.5 First 5 Innings
USA: Best Odds: at -107 BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.93 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/09/29 11:41:30 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Houser | 102 | 64 | 77 | 121 | 100 | 16 | 83 | 7 |
| STL | 95 | 100 | 87 | 95 | 16 | 133 | 2 | |
| Miles Mikolas | 110 | 94 | 64 | 70 | 97 | 10 | 90 | 11 |
| MIL | 96 | 107 | 105 | 93 | 19 | 70 | 30 |
The Cardinals are now at 17 straight wins. That’s quite the streak. I don’t think I’ve been on any of the 17 games because the Cardinals season long numbers are just not all that impressive and neither is their pitching staff. The System likes them a bit more than the sportsbook today, so I figured, why not?
The offense is on fire. The Brewers offense is cold. Let’s go for 18.
Pick: Bet Cardinals Moneyline
USA: Best Odds: -106 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.91 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/09/29 11:41:30 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frankie Montas | 81 | 76 | 115 | 86 | 103 | 19 | 107 | 23 |
| SEA | 93 | 110 | 106 | 93 | 19 | 103 | 16 | |
| Logan Gilbert | 85 | 97 | 114 | 59 | 89 | 4 | 108 | 24 |
| OAK | 100 | 96 | 106 | 103 | 8 | 102 | 17 |
I feel like Bay Area rapper Mac Andre making this pick: stupid doo-doo dumb.
I feel that way because the Mariners just keep doing it and are now just 0.5 games back of the Wild Card. They have been on fire of late and have absolutely owned the Athletics during that stretch. I really want them to win that Wild Card too, but you have to trust the System. This isn’t betting with your heart, it’s betting with statistics.
The Cardinals at least have a 133 wRC+ over the past two weeks of their run. The Mariners are just playing like a slightly above average team. It doesn’t make sense.
So, skip this one if you want to, but the System says that the Athletics should win this one. They have the better starter and the better offense against right handed pitching.
Pick: Bet Athletics Moneyline
USA: Best Odds: -107 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.93 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/09/29 11:41:30 AM EST but are subject to change.)
