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A 1-1-1 record last night.
A rare push last night as we took the Tigers five-inning line, but then the Brewers scored two in the bottom of the fifth inning to tie things up. You’d really think five runs would be enough to get you a win on a five inning line, but the Tigers denied us of that. The Brewers ended up winning 8-5.
We got the win with the Jays over the Marlins. Hyun-Jin Ryu was absolutely dealing with 8 strikeouts across six innings of one-run ball. The bullpen took it from there and the Jays won 2-1.
The loss of the night came laying the runs for the Astros against the Rangers. The Astros got the win, but they only managed to score two runs. This one featured great starts by Koby Allard and Cristian Javier.
Three picks today, let’s get into it.
Best Odds for MLB:
| Type of Bet / Prop: | Where To Bet: |
|---|---|
| R + H + E | BetOnline |
| MLB Grand Salami (Total Runs That Day) | Bovada |
| World Series Futures | SportsBetting.ag |
| 5 Inning Run Lines | BetOnline |
| 1st Inning Moneylines | Bovada |
| Total Team Runs Over/Under | Bovada |
All tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted.
Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox Betting Tips:
Blue Jays: Taijuan Walker 3.27 ERA/4.62 FIP
Red Sox: Martin Perez 4.58 ERA/5.06 FIP
I always enjoy picking against Martin Perez and this match-up is a good one to do so. The Jays offense is much more dangerous against left handed pitchers and he is a very friendly pitcher to face in that situation. His strikeouts are low, walks are high, and he gives up homeruns. The Jays should have a good time today.
Walker has put together a nice bounce back season. He’s had four starts (of six) with four or less hits allowed and three or less runs. The Jays got a good piece in trade here and I think he shows them why today.
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals Betting Tips:
White Sox: Dylan Cease 3.00 ERA/6.19 FIP
Royals: Danny Duffy 4.11 ERA/4.10 FIP
Cease definitely gives me pause when I look at his stats, but this White Sox offense is so good and especially good against left handed pitchers that I just forget all about it.
The Royals have an 86 wRC+ against right handed pitchers on the season so this match-up could be kind to Cease. He’s faced this team twice this season and has only allowed three runs in 10.1 innings of work.
This tip is all about the Sox and their 157 wRC+ against lefties though.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Tips:
Diamondbacks: Luke Weaver 8.23 ERA/5.66 FIP
Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw 1.80 ERA/3.50 FIP
A bit of a risky pick, but I really like Kershaw in this match-up. The Diamondbacks have just a 69 wRC+ against lefties on the season and I can really see him having five shutout innings here.
Luke Weaver is much better than his stats would suggest. He had a 2.94 ERA/3.07 FIP last season and there is reason to believe he’ll get back to that form. He has huge strikeout numbers and is running a ridiculous .395 BABIP right now. He’s also running a 20.5% HR/FB rate which should also be coming down. The Dodgers are a very scary offense, but I think Weaver can succeed through the first two times through the order.
Bet Dodgers/Diamondbacks Under 4.5 Runs (First 5 Innings)
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