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A 3-0 record last night, let’s go!
The Marlins/Pirates over 7.5 ended up being a pretty close one, but eight runs will do the trick and we grabbed the win there. The Brewers was also a bit closer than I’d have liked with a 2-2 tie late, but the Brewers ended up pulling it out 4-2. You know what wasn’t close? My favorite play of the night. The Rays won 14-2. I think that’ll cover the -1.5.
Sorry for the lateness of the post. I went out of town for a comedy show last night. Really funny show by Brooks Wheelan. I recommend checking out his podcast, Entry Level if you are interested in that sort of thing. He interviews comedians about their first, usually minimum wage jobs and there are some great stories on there.
I also had some issues with my spreadsheet today. Just stupid things like the teams data being tied to the wrong team. Very frustrating and it caused me to miss the 3:00 clock games. Too bad.
Let’s get to the tips.
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Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays Betting Tips:
I have to go back to the well here. The Rays pitching staff is really good and even with this being a bullpen game for them, I like them a lot here. They have been one of the better teams in baseball over the past few months and with some better luck they’d be right in the Wild Card race. I trust them more than few teams right now and they are red hot on offense with a 131 wRC+ over the past 14 days.
David Hess is the opposing starter and he’s not someone I trust very much. A 5.27 ERA/5.63 FIP with a high HR/9 rate is exactly the kind of pitcher I want when laying the runs so let’s lay the runs.
Bet Rays -1.5 (-120)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit Tigers Betting Tips:
One thing to look for at this point in the season is a young pitcher who has surpassed his career high in innings pitched. That’s Matt Boyd who has surpassed his career high by 20 innings thus far. That’s a lot of extra mileage. He has a 4.24 ERA/4.05 FIP on the year, but he’s been hit hard in his last two starts. I wonder why that could be? He’s facing Jack Flaherty who is nearing that territory as well. He walked five in his last outing which is a red flag to me.
The thing that interests me most about this isn’t them though, it’s how hot both offenses and how cold both bullpens have been of late. They have played some high scoring games and I think this will be another one. Eight runs feels low.
Bet Tigers/Cardinals Over 8 Runs
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies Betting Tips:
Time for our favorite betting activity: go against the Rockies against a righty!
I really have no idea how the Rockies are in first place right now. They have been killed by righties all season (77 wRC+) and did nothing to help this before the trade deadline. Their offense has been cold of late with an 83 wRC+ of the past 14 days. They are facing a dang tough one here in Walker Buehler who has a 2.92 ERA/3.11 FIP on the year and a high groundball rate that should lower some of the effects of Coors Field.
Kyle Freeland is having a nice year and plays better at home, but I think the Dodgers are just the better overall team right now and the Rox offense will really struggle here.
Bet Dodgers -136
