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Three MLB System tips for September 8th, 2021.
All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.
New York Mets at Miami Marlins Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rich Hill | 111 | 102 | 93 | 96 | 98 | 12 | 91 | 11 |
| MIA | 81 | 117 | 85 | 87 | 25 | 75 | 26 | |
| Sandy Alcantara | 87 | 77 | 100 | 75 | 91 | 4 | 73 | 1 |
| NYM | 88 | 105 | 92 | 96 | 16 | 127 | 3 |
I’m not buying on the Mets.
Sandy Alcantara has been awesome at home this season. He has a 3.36 ERA/3.56 FIP on the season and has done well keeping walks and homeruns down. The Mets also struggle in both of those categories.
Rich Hill has been very hittable this season and worse on the road. He has a 3.92 ERA/4.57 FIP on the year. The Marlins offense only has a 86 wRC+ against lefties on the year, but Hill’s road struggles should be enough to push them over the hump.
Pick: Bet Marlins First 5 Innings Moneyline
USA: Best Odds: -118 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.84 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/09/08 10:25:47 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane McClanahan | 80 | 80 | 121 | 87 | 86 | 1 | 114 | 24 |
| BOS | 111 | 98 | 97 | 107 | 5 | 124 | 5 | |
| Nathan Eovaldi | 69 | 63 | 107 | 50 | 95 | 9 | 105 | 18 |
| TBR | 111 | 109 | 110 | 109 | 4 | 132 | 1 |
Nathan Eovaldi has been awesome this season with a 3.73 ERA/2.92 FIP. He’s made three starts against the Rays this season. In two of them, he went seven innings and only allowed one run. In the other, he gave up five runs. I’m hoping for the former here. He’s been much better at home on the season.
Shane McClanahan has a 3.76 ERA/3.27 FIP on the season so he’s no slouch either. I just don’t have him pegged as good as Eovaldi here. The Red Sox have a 104 wRC+ against lefties on the season.
Pick: Bet Red Sox First 5 Innings Moneyline
Canada: Best Odds: -110 at
USA: Best Odds: at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.9 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/09/08 10:25:47 AM EST but are subject to change.)
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Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis Cardinals Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch White | 97 | 96 | 104 | 114 | 91 | 4 | 102 | 16 |
| STL | 93 | 99 | 88 | 93 | 19 | 111 | 9 | |
| Adam Wainwright | 84 | 71 | 97 | 69 | 100 | 14 | 99 | 15 |
| LAD | 106 | 103 | 108 | 106 | 6 | 81 | 24 |
This is a straight up offense pick. Dodgers offense very good, Cardinals offense very bad. Not to take anything away from his numbers, but looking at his game log and I’m just not seeing a lot of difficult match-ups like this. Two games against San Francisco is about as close as it gets for him and he allowed seven runs over those first two starts.
The Dodgers could do that kind of thing here. They have a 108 wRC+ on the season against righties.
Adam Wainwright has been solid all season with a 2.91 ERA/3.50 FIP.
Mitch White is the starter for the Dodgers here, but I’m not sure he goes longer than four innings. The Dodgers bullpen has been pretty solid for the season behind him. With the Cardinals having just an 89 wRC+ against righties on the season, I’m not too worried.
Pick: Bet Dodgers Moneyline
USA: Best Odds: -125 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.8 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/09/08 10:25:47 AM EST but are subject to change.)
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