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The Scottish Premier League is back in action which means the awesome website Modern Fitba is releasing analytical data and advanced metrics again.
Being from Scotland and a Rangers fan, I obviously care more about the SPL than any other betting leagues so I spend a lot of time focusing on it.
We’ve had a few games undergo and while there is not a ton of data I’m ready to start attacking the SPL on a regular basis with betting tips.
I often like to get out early doing this simply because it allows me to focus on it more, watch the early changes etc and see where I am going wrong.
You may wish to not follow these initially as they are based on very little sample data. However I’ve used advanced metrics for years so generally can get an indication of where there is going to be a trend and what is simply variance.
Motherwell & Celtic Double. Motherwell are 1.53 to win, Celtic 1.22. Combine them both for a double of 1.87 and we’ll risk 1u on it.
Motherwell should win. Overall they are the better team. Even more likely is they score from a set piece. They are set piece specialists it looks like this early on with 37% of their xG from set plays. Hamilton meanwhile have a 29% xG conceded rate from set plays. What this indicates is even if everything was equal, set pieces will be the main difference between the teams and in a tight affair, will sway it Motherwells way.
As for Celtic they are the best at build up attacks. Not much data from this year for them obviously due to being dirty COVID bastards and all, but they were amazing at it last year and will be again. It’s where Dundee Utd seriously struggle to defend against so they should be able to win quite comfortably honestly.
Rangers -2.5. This one is a 1u play as well. Rangers pass the ball around a lot and that sort of attack is what is resulting in xG. 58% of their xG is from the build up and offensive attacks. That’s where Kilmarnock concede with 55% of their xG against. Basically this is a brilliant match-up for Rangers and it should be 4-0 or 5-0 if all goes to plan.
St Mirren vs Ross County to be a draw. 3.25 odds for this, 0.5u play. This is where the lack of data is obviously tricky. However Ross County seemingly rely on set pieces so far but St Mirren rarely concede from those. St Mirren also concede against build up plays which Ross County don’t do too well.
That’s all I have. The other game is St. Johnstone vs Hibs and that’s a tough one to call. Hibs are excellent on the counter and as they are playing away, that should bode well for them. However it just depends if they take the game by the scruff of the neck or not which is likely. St Johnstone seriously struggle against build up attacks, however considering Hibs have a whopping 1% of their xG from build up attacks – don’t expect that to happen.
(Odds on this page are correct as of 2020/08/21 6:25:35 AM EST but are subject to change)
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