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A profitable week last week in the golf – with bets which were Patreon Exclusive.
We had Ludvig Aberg Top 10 Finish and he ended up coming tied for 5th. Also had Bezuidenhout Top 20 finish and he came 4th. Thankfully neither were anywhere near the leader, so there was no worry of missing out on the big E/W winner cash.
This week we’ve got the US Open. This is a very tricky one as it’s hard to really decide on what is going to be important on this course. Scrambling and Putts per GIR are pretty huge.
One of those where I don’t feel super confident in my analysis, so going to stick with 1u this week rather than the usual 2u for Majors.
Scotties game is perfect for this course, but I do worry about exhaustion for him. I think he’ll likely win, but I don’t think the odds and the metric differences are nough to make it a +EV bet.
I also don’t feel good making any longshot bets due to my lack of real data analysis, so I’m just going to make two 1/2u bets this week.
1/2u on Xander Schauffele Top 5 Finish @ 5/2
I don’t hate an outright bet on Xander to win either. I also don’t hate a safer bet of 13/10 for a Top 10 finish. I’m going to go right in the middle there.
This is a very tough course and he seems to feast on those. He’s playing excellent golf, and I’m happy to back him to be in contention. Among the metrics I’m guessing at for this course, him and Scottie lead the way by far. If he wasn’t so high on it, I’d actually bet Scottie outright.
1/2u on Brooks Koepka Top 10 Finish @ 12/5
I was debating Dechambeau a lot for this second bet, but I just can’t quite pull the trigger on him. Going with Brooks instead who has the course experience where he played very well, and although his recent Majors history is nothing to write home about, I am hoping he can sort it here.
Aaand you know what lets’s go with one long shot bet:
1/4u on Alex Noren E/W 1/5 1-8 @ 100/1
Based on my guesses at what will be a factor here, he pops up quite high on the metrics so I’m fine doing a speculative bet on him.
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