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Took last week off from the golf as it was the Olympics and I just didn’t feel I had any sort of edge.
Nothing in the 3M Open unless you took the less risky option on Cameron Tringale to finish in the Top 20, as I mentioned. I tipped him for Top 10 and he came two strokes out of that finishing 16th.
He had an absolutely brutal triple bogey on the 13th there which just crushed that bet. Frustrating.
I was extremely disappointed in Emiliano Grillo in that one. He really just checked all the boxes and not to even make the cut? Annoying.
Let’s get straight into this weeks golf betting tips:
E/W (Each-Way) bets mean you split that amount. So if it is a $250 E/W bet, that means $125 on them to win, $125 on them to place (Usually in the Top 5)
WGC Fedex St. Jude Invitational Betting Tips:
Tough one as jet leg could be a big factor.
Collin Morikawa E/W. $125. 14/1.
It’s not a case of I fully believe Morikawa can win this one – it’s more that when I look at the top few guys I am not 100% convinced on them. Basically running the math I think Morikawa has an excellent shot here and should be a lot shorter price.
I almost wanted to back him as outright however jet lag is such a concerning factor and you have to wonder how that will affect him. So do a smaller bet, and E/W. If we took the Olympics out of the mix, this would be a $250 bet to win.
Daniel Berger E/W. $250. 22/1.
One of those bets you don’t think twice about. Excellent course form. Two wins and a bridesmaid. Solid form. Won previously this year etc. I wish all bets were automatic like this.
Brian Harman Top 10 Finish. $62.50. 9/2
By the metrics for this course, he is near the top. Almost tempting to do a speculative bet on him to win at like 65/1. Solid enough form, although his course form is severely lacking here but we are going back like a decade.
Aaron Rai Top 20 Finish: $62.50. 9/2
Just a case of my numbers say he should do well here. God knows why but it is what it is. I also suggest a speculative $30 bet on Aaron Rai E/W at 250/1.
Just going to go with these. We have the Barracuda as well but only the one year of course data.
For the Hero Open a small bet of $30 on Daniel Gavins To Win & E/W at 60/1. No-one else really jumped out at me.
Canada: Bet the WGC at Sports Interaction
USA: Bet the WGC at BetOnline
Everyone Else: Bet the WGC at Bet365
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/04 9:04:46 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Hi,
Even though I don’t gamble heavily, I’ve been following you for years now (golf only) With respect, you have definitely gone off the boil and I wonder if you now apply a different logic to your thinking?
The tone of your text has definitely changed to not quite disguised desperation but very close!!
Maybe a return to your earlier way of thinking would pay dividends?
Nothing has really changed from my end. Still the same work, analysis etc I put in each week. It’s really just variance which is huge in golf. If you’ll look through the historical records you’ll see a trend; a fair amount of losses with maybe a few minor wins, followed by a big win. We’re just missing out on a couple of those big wins. If you look at my record prior to this year it was 191-1211. That’s about a 13% winrate, and with the variance in golf it’s not surprising that it’s fluctuating.
Also just want to add that there’s certainly no “disguised desperation” or anything like that with my thinking. All my picks are still the same reasoning as always. If there was desperation picks like Grillo the other week would have been max units for example. If anything it is the opposite – with the Top 10/20 picks I am doing lately as opposed to betting them E/W.
BTW I had a quick look and I am actually at about 15% win rate for the year. And a few of those losses are only “losses” because of dead heat rules, and it was like a negative return of like $5 on a $200 bet etc.
The only real issue is that the E/W bets are cashing, but just not quite getting the win which is primarily variance.