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Some good games on Saturday in the World Cup, although I’m not counting the Argentina match in that one!
Australia got a big win over Tunisia. Had Tunisia to win there and I was disappointed with them. They did have some decent chances when they were down but couldn’t capitalize.
Won with Poland over Saudi Arabia. An overall deserved victory in a great match. Poland showed their quality and while Saudi Arabia created a lot of chances, I just felt Poland were inevitable with every attack. So happy for Lewandowski and I wonder if now he has scored he will start battering them in.
Also won with France vs Denmark over and that was a great game. France looked really good, and happy Mbappe got a couple of goals for my Top France Goalscorer future!
Lost with Martinez to score for Argentina in an absolutely dire game. Mexico can just go hop on the plane and F off back home now. Not that it affected my bet in any way, but those negative tactics in the 2nd half. Man I’m just gonna move on before I go in a huge rant. They deserved to lose. Hate that sort of football.
Belgium vs Morocco:
So this game we’ll get to find out who Belgium really are. Are they a team that are completely past it, like they looked against Canada? Or was that an anomaly and we get to see the real Belgium show up?
The latter is certainly possible. Look at Netherlands yesterday. I’d rank the top 3 worst performances in the World Cup, in no specific order, as Netherlands 2nd game, and Qatar and Belgiums 1st games. Actually I’d probably put that Holland one as #1. Man I thought they were terrible.
Canada play a different style than most teams in the tournament, and Belgium couldn’t handle it. They put on non stop pressure, and what’s notable is how quick they generally pass the ball. Belgium went into that one I expect thinking they could control the game and that wasn’t the case at all. And the problem for them was Canada were absolutely relentless with it.
That game was half Canadas tactics, half Belgium and just how lethargic they looked. We can’t just give full credit to Canada. They were lethargic, and they have a few off form players and we saw that affect things as they just didn’t have the confidence.
Then we have Morocco. Just an 0.3 xG vs Croatia. Croatia should have probably won that game. Morocco were quite sloppy and it’s probably partly due to lack of fitness in their team.
I think they were quite fortunate that Croatia didn’t know what to do when they got into their half. Croatia were playing practically a 2-3-5 but that wasn’t taking advantage of their strengths and they couldn’t work it out well.
Basically, I expect Morocco to try and defend more. Belgium will control possession, and I THINK that will give them the needed confidence they were so sorely lacking against Canada.
On top of that to come out of that one with a win was huge.
As a reminder – these are my bets. I use strict bankroll management etc and it’s your call if you want to follow. I could be completely wrong and Belgium are utter crap yet again. It is what it is. However I just feel these odds are very reactive to that lone game, and this game is more Belgiums speed.
Croatia vs Canada:
Looking forward to seeing Canada here and how Croatia handle them. I actually think Croatia are a pretty complete team. I really enjoyed their first half performance against Morocco.
I wrote a lot about both teams up above. I think Croatia will get a better attack going for this one, and Canada obviously won’t be as tight defensively as Morocco.
Canada will have a lot of confidence. Croatia meanwhile are going to want a win here as well as regardless of Belgiums last performance they aren’t going to want to go into that one seeking a victory.
I feel like a win is necessary for both teams. We all know how Canada will play. Hopefully they can convert some of the 30 chances they create. Croatia I think will be more lethal on the counter than Belgium, and they have a world star in Modric.
This is an interesting one as I rate Croatia, but it’s scary to back against Canada with the way they play. I don’t think they can do that.
And hell I’m going to be watching it with my family so I can’t cheer against Canada. I’m going to go with 0.5u on Over 2.5 goals at 2.00 odds. Gives me something to cheer, and with both teams really needing a win I think there’s a good possibility of it going over.
Spain vs Germany:
Spain destroyed Costa Rica, while Germany lost to Japan 2-1 in a surprising result.
Enrique used his usual 4-3-3 and one thing I liked about Spain was the passing wasn’t just side to side, but also exposing spaces within the Costa Rica defence. Too often we see Spain just pass it around forever so it was a welcome change. They did a great job at exploiting space. They also looked excellent transitioning the ball from their own half to the final third within seconds.
Pedro and Busquets were both big factors in that game. Pedro kept making so many runs which would have a Costa Rica midfielder follow him, leaving Busquets wide open to control.
The one problem is we don’t truly know how Spains defence will hold up against a decent offence.
Enter Germany. An xG of 2.3 plus the pen against Japan. Germany should have wrapped up that game before half time.
When Germany are in possession of the ball, they generally switch to a 3 man defence with Raum moving up. Which could make them ripe for counter attacks against Spain with how easy Spain can transition.
Germany lost the game due to key tactical changes by Japan at half time. Actually the changes were similar to the way Germany play and they were able to overwhelm Germany with them.
So Germany we have two issues with them. They can pass the ball a lot, but it wasn’t resulting in much. And their defence off that game I have concerns. The only concern with Spain is their defence wasn’t tested.
I’m going to do a small play on Spain to win – 2.30 odds, 0.5u. Germany will be a desperate team and that could cause issues. But they are a powerhouse and you can’t count them out at all.
Japan vs Costa Rica:
I mean Japan just have to go for it. They’re not going to have any better chance of making the next round than right now.
Costa Rica – their confidence will be shattered. It’s possible they will feel no pressure and that will benefit them here, but Japan work together very well and have a solid enough counter. They also showed some real tactical genius against Germany.
I’m good with 1u on Japan -1.5 at 2.30 odds>
