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An incredible day in the World Cup, especially the Group C games.
Those two second halves were just unreal and that’s what it is all about. I pity anyone who isn’t able to have both games going at once. It just adds so much to it, especially in situations like that.
It was a bad day at the races with the betting unfortunately, to pull us back in the negative.
However a big thanks to Salem Al-Dawsari! His 95th minute goal won me the 11/1 Saudi Arabia Top Team Goalscorer Bet!
If I had known France were going to ring in NINE changes, I would not have taken them against Tunisia. I was tempted to send out an update on the Patreon saying not to back that, but with it being so close to kick-off decided not to. At least that’s the only time we’ll have to worry about that.
What a result for Australia. Denmaark had their chances but struggled to finish in the final third. After an xG of 1.2 versus Tunisia and being able to score versus France, I was really disappointed they couldn’t get a goal there to really open up the game. I had the over 2.5 in that one and it’s one where when I look back in hindsight – I just can’t see any bets that I would actually make there that would be a winning one, quite honestly. I felt confident the Aussies would squeak in a goal but I thought Denmark would be good for a couple as well.
I loved that Poland cards bet and the game went like I expected it – sans fouls by Poland. I never even considered that discipline could be a factor and I wonder if that affected them and the way they played as they did seem to stand off Argentina lot. Frustrating one. And I’m not sure what the Saudis were doing in this one as their counter attack was non-existent. We saw the damage it can do with that Aldawsari goal as well. Where was this Mexico team the rest of the World Cup?
Thursday looks like a tough one.
Group E Betting Tips:
Germany play Costa Rica while Japan play Spain.
Germany need to win, period. They also need to win by at least 2 if they end up tied with Japan to have a better goal difference, as they’d lose on head to head. Costa Rica can go through with a draw if Japan lose.
Japan really need to go for it. That Costa Rica result was horrific for them. I think it’s safe to assume Germany do the business against the Costa Ricans.
Spain can win, draw or probably lose to be honest unless Germany put a barrel load past Costa Rica, or Costa Rica win.
No surprise, both Germany and Spain are heavy favourites. Germany racked up a 1.2 xG against Spain.
We saw similar tactics that Germany played against Japan that they played against Spain. No cleear number 9, Muller in the Raumdeuter role. They had to change things to overcome the deficit, and the addition of Füllkrug was a big change there. Honestly Füllkrug should start as they need a striker in there.
Costa Rica got the win against Japan but didn’t really impress. It was a great goal but although they went with the counter attack and barely possessing the ball – it really didn’t work out that great for them. They’ll probably do the same here and at least be buoyed on by the fact that Japan were able to expose Germany this way, and hope for similar results. Germany also do seem to have a couple of issues in defense.
I feel like I gotta back a big Germany win. No other way. Spain broke them down so surely Germany will too. I’ve spent awhile looking through the betting markets and it’s very tough, but going with 1u on Over 2.5 and BTTS = No for 2.40 odds.
Spain is another tricky one. I’m going to go with 1u on Ferran Torres to score anytime at 2.50 odds – void if doesnt start. Won that against Costa Rica and I can see Japan pushing and Spain playing similar and their build up play is in his favour.
Two bets that I am not elated to make – if I wasn’t betting every game I’d probably skip them to be honest. Both games are tough.
Group F Betting Tips:
Canada are out, and their game against Morroco is just for fun. In saying that I feel like we’ll see a similar Canada performance who will throw caution to the wind hoping to make things tough for Morocco, and get their first point or at least have fun doing so.
Morocco only need a draw to go through.
Croatia a draw is also enough. Belgium pretty much need to win. A draw means they need Canada to beat Morocco by 4 goals I believe. Not happening.
Belgium made some slight changes formation wise with Thorgan Haazard in but they really didn’t look good against Morocco at all. Belgium would switch to a 3-2-5 when they were in Moroccos half which in theory should be dangerous but man it really wasn’t at all. Belgium didn’t look fluid out there at all and it was like they had never practised this tactic in their lives before.
They just look very uninspiring while Croatia have looked excellent. I’m personally going with 1u on Croatia Draw No Bet at 1.83 odds here. Croatia have looked very good to me in all aspects. The only concern – and it is a real one – is they don’t know how to line up and whether to play for the win or draw. But if Belgium are able to discover their magic then so be it. They haven’t shown anything in 180 minutes to suggest they can. If Lukaku starts and completely turns this team around – well, that’s life.
I liked the changes Croatia made after the Morocco game. Livaja coming in allowing Kramaric to be a lot more open on the right wing worked well.
Personally I’d prefer to go under 2.5 in that one but 1.72 odds just not enough for me.
Canada have been so fun but they go up against a right tough Morocco defense. It’s possible they do a lot of rotation as well.
It actually makes for a real intriguing game, to see if Morocco can handle the Canadian aggressive attack. Their defense has been excellent so far but this is a very different sort of attack and if Canada get an early goal? How will Morocco deal with the pressure?
I think with the way Croatia showed they could handle Canada, that we see similar here however I am going with 1u on over 2.5 goals at 2.20. Canada have nothing to play for so they’ll put on the constant pressure and it’s hard to deal with it. They should have scored 6 goals already and it should click tomorrow when it doesn’t matter.
