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Hi guys,
It was a 2-2 day on Tuesday with the World Cup bets.
Alas with unit sizing, it was a -1.58u loss. That puts me at 5-3, for +0.30u.
Not too bothered with either loss. Had Martinez to score for Argentina. Had the ball in the net a couple of times including what I felt was a bit of an anal VAR call. Just variance.
Went with 2u on Denmark to win and I think they were very capable. They did fine in the first half when Tunisia were fired up beyond belief. They started to take over a lot more in the 2nd half as Tunisia tired, and if Cornelius puts that ball in the net, I think Tunisia are forced to push up and get caught on the counter. Sucks to lose it but not regretting making the bet.
Mexico/Poland was a big of a nail biter but we got the draw for the good odds return. I was regretting the France bet about 15 minutes in that is for sure! Thankfully they eventually took over and honestly that Australia goal was the best thing for them as it woke them the F up.
Let’s look at Wednesdays games. I’m so stupidly excited to go to bed early so I can wake up at 5am again. Especially if we get amazing games like Argentina vs Saudi Arabia. What a performance by the Saudis.
Morocco vs Croatia:
Croatia decent favourites here but with value at 2.16 odds. They were very solid in qualifying in a tricky group. Great in the UEFA Nations League as well.
Morocco looked solid in their own qualifying stages and got here with ease although it’s a step up in level of opposition.
Morocco can be very dangerous out wide although they won’t have Harit in the middle to finish any balls which is tough.
I don’t fully know what to expect out of this Morocco team. Croatia won’t either so it makes it tricky. They have a lot of creative players like Ziyech and Boufal.
So this leaves me quite conflicted. I want to bet Croatia to win because I feel they are on fire coming into this and should be the better team – but you just never know with Morocco.
So I’m tempted to back the over 2.5 just in case this Morocco team is flying. Buuuut Croatia have proven solid defensively.
As this is the only 1u play I have (the others are 0.5u), it’s the only one hidden on our Patreon. Sign up now for free, don’t get charged until the end of the month. So you get a week of free World Cup bets, and if you ain’t happy then unsubscribe and don’t pay a penny. Click here.
Germany vs Japan:
Germany are of course a machine. An incredible teamwork based side. They dominated Group J In qualifying, although quite weak in the Nations League.
Japan suffered two losses in the AFC Third Round in qualifying – but one was to Saudi Arabia and after seeing how they play uh that’s not too bad.
A new manager at the helm in Flick. Germany are one of those teams where it feels like we’ll have some concerns about prior to the tournament – no-one is considering them among the winners – then after 10 minutes tomorrow they’ll end up being favourites.
Just a small play of 0.5u on Germany -1.5 at 2.10 odds. I feel like my confidence in Germany is based more on who they are as a nation and their history, as opposed to recent performances. But I do think we will see a solid performance from them here, and their passing should be able to break down the Japanese defence.
Spain vs Costa Rica:
Spain are the biggest favourites of the day at 1.16 odds. They were solid if unspectacular in qualifying for this tournament.
Costa Rica barely made it in by beating New Zealand. They scored less than a goal a game in qualifying.
Spain are one of those teams I often associate with frustration when it comes to betting.
I’m not seeing anything I love about this game. It’s funny because most previews and analysis think Spain struggle and only win like 1-0 but the betting odds don’t reflect that at all.
I’m just going to do a small play of 0.5u on Ferran Torres to score anytime – void if he doesn’t start – at 2.20 odds. No real reason other than I think he can be a good source for goals for them this tournament.
Belgum vs Canada:
So for those who don’t know I live in Canada, so that kind of messes me up for this one. I’m just seeing all this media about how Canada can find a way to win here or compete etc and so it puts a real tough bias on me.
They did a great job to get here and have tremendous team spirit. Belgium were solid in qualification although their nations league performances were poor.
Honestly I am just really gutted that due to my surgery last week, I’m unable to go to a pub for the game. Would be an amazing atmosphere.
Belgium are not infallible in defence and Canada can score goals. But then Lukaku is missing ugh and Davies – well they say he is fully fit anyway.
I was going to go with both teams to score, but I’m going to be a bit more speculative and go with Belgium to win & BTTS 0.5u at 3.25 odds. I think Canada can get on the scoresheet, but that Belgium will be too strong for them.
