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World Matchplay 2012 Day Five Premium Picks
Well, another great night for the Premium Picks, again going 3-1, taking us to 11-5 and a lovely profit after four days of 17.75 units. Hopefully you’ve followed every pick, not strayed and are looking at a healthy balance in your betting accounts. I know my better half has been picking some things that sparkle a lot, unfortunately!
If day three of the World Matchplay was boring, last night more than made up for it, with Dean Winstanley not only doing us a huge turn, but putting on a darting spectacle with Gary Anderson. We also saw the future of darts put in solid performances in defeat, with Joe Cullen and James Hubbard losing out to Justin Pipe and Wes Newton. The final match saw a lot of 180s, which was great for us, and also Ronnie Baxter turning back the clock to show why he’s still a threat on the PDC stage.
Betfair are the new sponsors of the PDC World Matchplay, and they’re doing more for darts than ever before – a lot of their markets have more liquidity than ever and no is a great time to sign up there if you haven’t done so already. Plus, what’s better than trading darts matches in-play? Sign up now, get a free £20 bet and up to £1,000 cashback:
Adrian Lewis versus Andy Smith:
Looking at the first round matches, this is a bit of a mismatch. Adrian Lewis fired in an average of 100.87 in his whitewash of Robert Thornton, while Andy Smith averaged 89.65 in his 10-6 win over Paul Nicholson.
What sticks out for me is that Robert Thornton averaged 88.17, just a point less than Andy Smith, yet Lewis demolished him 10-0.
The one thing in Smith’s favour here is that he’s not far behind in the head-to-head with Lewis, trailing 11-8, and actually won their last meeting, which was in April this year.
But the worry here is still the level that both men are playing at, and the level Smith played at in the first round wouldn’t challenge Adrian Lewis if he’s averaging over 100. If the UK Open champion couldn’t get a leg on the board, the handicap line for Smith of -5.5 is very tempting, as I can see Lewis taking it 13-7 or greater, more often than not. So we’re sticking to the handicap lines for the first match of the night.
Adrian Lewis -5.5 legs to beat Andy Smith: Evens @ 888sport.
Recommend: 2 units.
Michael van Gerwen versus Steve Beaton:
Two men who got us a couple of nice wins during the week face off, both men won 10-6, but the more important statistic is the number of 180s hit between them – 1. Michael van Gerwen managed that solitary maximum.
The outright market offers us nothing, as I can see a win for the young Dutchman, but I think it’ll be close, and the 8/13 isn’t at all tempting. The fact Beaton won the last meeting between them over a longer format is interesting, but I just think van Gerwen has the edge.
But I want to go back to the 180s market, as something that’s come out of van Gerwen’s run of form is his cover shooting – he’s going for a lot of treble 19s as soon as the 20 bed is even remotely blocked. It’s that chance in his game that’s found his form, but it’s also this that means he’s not hitting as many maximums as other players that are averaging close to 100.
So Beaton looks a bit of value in the maximums market, as we know he’ll be going for them, while van Gerwen is loving the 177s.
Steve Beaton to score more 180s than Michael van Gerwen: 13/8 @ Stan James.
Recommend: 2 units.
James Wade versus Mark Walsh:
It’s like deja vu all over again. These men met in the last 16 stage last year, and James Wade won that 13-11. Will history repeat itself? Well, the way the first round went, maybe not. Wade powered through most of his match against Ritchie Burnett, and looked on course for a comfortable win, eventually putting the former World Champion away after a mid-match scare. Walsh scraped past Colin Osborne in a performance that didn’t exactly light the stage on fire.
That being said, that’s the way Walsh plays and he came close to doing the business against Wade this time last year, so why not again? Well, he’ll have to find around 8 points on his average, or hope the other James Wade shows up, which is a possibility.
The market I want to look at is the player to score the highest checkout. Wade managed an 83 in the first round, Walsh got a 126 and he’s going to be needing more of that to keep him in the match. So looking at the first round stats, the price for Walsh to score the highest checkout is nice enough for us to have a dabble.
Mark Walsh to score the highest checkout versus James Wade: 5/4 @ Stan James.
Recommend: 2 units.
Raymond van Barneveld versus Terry Jenkins:
11 wins for Raymond van Barneveld, 7 for Terry Jenkins and a couple of draws between the two men. The last time they met in the World Matchplay was 2009 in the quarter-final, which Jenkins won 16-12. Barney won 10-4 with an average of 97.93, while Jenkins won 11-9 with an average of 96.88.
So there’s really not much in the statistics between the two, as you can see, and I’m sure you know if you’ve watched the two fight it out in the Premier League over the years.
For me, the value here is backing Terry Jenkins. He played well, fought hard in the first round and I think the 9/4 on offer is just far too big for him, as his record against Barney shows. Yes, Barney is playing great darts at the moment, and he should be favourite, but we have to take the value on offer with The Bull.
Terry Jenkins to beat Raymond van Barneveld: 9/4 @ Betfair.
Recommend: 1 unit.
So a great night of darts to come with the first four matches of the second round to keep us entertained. There’s going to be some close matches, and there’s a bit of value to be had tonight.
Enjoy the darts, and happy betting!
