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World Matchplay 2012 Day Four Premium Picks
Another good night for the Premium Picks, with the tips going 3-1, taking us to 8-4 and a lovely profit after three days of 10.52 units, which isn’t to be sniffed at!
Anyway, not the most exciting night of darts, but our picks done the business, with Ian White doing us the favour we hoped for, Andy Hamilton getting over the line and even though Mark Webster got the better of Colin Lloyd, our highest checkout bet came off, so we can’t complain too much, can we?
Betfair are the new sponsors of the PDC World Matchplay, and they’re doing more for darts than ever before – a lot of their markets have more liquidity than ever and no is a great time to sign up there if you haven’t done so already. Plus, what’s better than trading darts matches in-play? Sign up now, get a free £20 bet and up to £1,000 cashback:
Justin Pipe versus Joe Cullen:
What a year for Justin Pipe… on the floor, at least. He’s climbed the rankings, won the inaugural European Tour event, made finals of another three ProTour events, as well as numerous deep runs. But that’s where it ends for Pipe – he just doesn’t seem to cope on the big stage, for whatever reason. The fact Justin Pipe, even though he’s ploughed through massive fields, has never made it past the last 16 of a televised event sums up the problems he has on the TV stage.
This is Joe Cullen’s debut in the World Matchplay, even though it feels like he’s been around the PDC for a long time. The problem he faces is that he’s not exactly coming into the tournament in great form. His best run of form came in May, and since then he’s just stumbled through the ProTour events.
The head-to-head speaks volumes here, with Cullen winning once, in a 6-5 scrap back in 2010. Since then, they’ve met twice and Pipe leads 12-4 in legs. Due to the stats, I can see Pipe winning here, but 2/5 is of no use to us. However, the 12-4 stat for their last two head-to-head meetings means the -2.5 handicap is where we’re going.
Justin Pipe -2.5 legs to beat Joe Cullen: 10/11 @
Wes Newton versus James Hubbard:
The World No.5 taking on the World Under-21 Champion here, and I think this has the potential to be an absolute cracker.
Wes Newton seems to be the next Terry Jenkins – the fringe player in the PDC elite that is going to challenge the big guns, but never deliver. However, he was solid at the end of June, starting with a quarter-final at the UK Open, then taking that to three semi-finals in a row, before the form bottomed out in Crawley. However, there’s no denying he’s a class act.
His opponent tonight, James Hubbard, is also a class act, and has decimated fields in the PDC Youth Tour, as well as winning the World Under-21 Championship. There’s no doubting this young man has a huge future in the game, and a win here would catapult him into the big leagues. The problem is that Hubbard hasn’t shown it as often as we’d like in the ProTour events to show he’s a major threat yet. He will, but just not now.
Where I want to be is the highest checkout market. Both men are capable of it, and Hubbard knows he’ll have to take out the big combinations to keep up with Newton’s consistency. I even think we’ll get quite a few legs to see this bet out. So the line of 122.5 seems generous enough for us.
Highest checkout over 123.5 in Wes Newton versus James Hubbard match over 123.5: 5/6 @ Stan James.
Recommend: 2 units.
Gary Anderson versus Dean Winstanley:
I can’t do a big write-up here, as Gary Anderson has been injured for most of the season and had taken a few weeks out to recover from his eye injury. It’s for this reason alone that I think the price for Winstanley, who is a former World Championship finalist, is far too big.
I’ve been waiting for this match all week, and I think the value on “Over The Top” is far too big, as we just don’t know how Anderson will cope on the stage in his first match back. He’s not played in over a month, while Winstanley has been getting stuck in on the ProTour, so the Yorkshireman is where we’ve got to go.
Dean Winstanley to beat Gary Anderson: 9/5 @ Stan James.
Recommend: 2.5 units.
Dave Chisnall versus Ronnie Baxter:
Dave Chisnall is the man all BDO defectors want to end up being. He’s plied his trade in the PDC for a couple of years and is now reaping the benefits, climbing into the top 16, winning so much on the floor that he’s become the next Justin Pipe and beating Phil Taylor on his own patch at the Ally Pally. His power scoring is scary, and it’s only his doubling that lets him down.
Ronnie Baxter hasn’t actually had too bad a year, but he’s just not had the year Chisnall has had. Baxter will put up a fight, but he’s just not in the league that Chisnall is at the moment. That being said, Baxter can power score with the best of them, and goes through spurts where he’ll match someone like Chisnall.
So that’s why the maximums market is so appealing. We know we’ll get a few from Chisnall, and if Baxter can weigh in with a couple, we’re sorted.
Over 7.5 180s in Dave Chisnall versus Ronnie Baxter match match: 4/5 @ 888sport.
Recommend: 2.5 units.
Another big night of darts, and this is the one I’ve been waiting for, as Dean Winstanley makes his PDC bow on the TV stage. I really fancy his chances, so get stuck in and enjoy the rest of the matches, as it’s a big, big night of darts.
Enjoy the darts, and happy betting!
