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World Matchplay 2012 Day Seven Premium Picks
Dean Winstanley summed up a frustrating night for the Premimum Picks, as we went 2-2 and Winstanley surely should have got a win with his number of maximums, yet his doubling cost us and the tips are now 16-8 with a profit of 21.92 units.
Another 9-darter and this time the man who hit it lost. It was unfortunate for Wes Newton, but hey, Justin Pipe played such a solid game. I’ve already mentioned the problems Dean Winstanley’s doubling caused us, as Ronnie Baxter out-doubled him, even if he didn’t out-score him. Phil Taylor crushed Ian White, just as we hoped, and Andy Hamilton got of us to a great start with a trouncing of Mark Webster, again just as we hoped.
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Justin Pipe versus Ronnie Baxter:
Both men’s averages were similar in the last round, both men had wins over more fancied opponents and to most it would be close, especially as the head-to-head is 2-2.
Ronnie Baxter loves having the hometown advantage and it showed last night. The problem here is that Baxter’s just not had the greatest time of it over the last 12 months. That being said, he’s played great darts to beat two BDO defectors and he’s going to be a hard man to beat this afternoon.
Justin Pipe is playing his usual solid darts, and has made his first televised quarter-final. Maybe he’s getting comfortable under the lights, and if that’s the case Baxter could be in trouble, as Pipe is a tough nut to crack, especially for someone with a reasonably quick playing style like Baxter. So Pipe’s playing style over the long format should frustrate Baxter. Add in that Baxter isn’t going to get the same chances he got against Winstanley, and Pipe looks like the winner here.
Justin Pipe to beat Ronnie Baxter: 7/10 @ Betfair.
Recommend: 2.5 units.
Adrian Lewis versus Terry Jenkins:
27 matches between the two, 16 wins for Adrian Lewis, 10 for Terry Jenkins and a draw. Now, there’s no chance of a draw this afternoon, so someone’s going to improve their record against the other.
Adrian Lewis leads Jenkins on the tournament average, but the better second round performance has to go to Jenkins, as he dispatched Raymond van Barneveld in a great match, while Lewis wasn’t the most impressive winner against Andy Smith.
I think this is a tough one to call, even though the bookies seem to have Lewis as the short-priced favourite. Jenkins has form here, he’s got a decent record against Lewis, and has 50-50 record against Lewis in the longer format.
The value here is Terry Jenkins, simply because 3/1 is huge for a man who’s already beat one of the top players in the PDC in the tournament, and he does go well here. He’s just too big a price for us to ignore.
Terry Jenkins to beat Adrian Lewis 3/1 @ Betfair.
Recommend: 1 unit.
Phil Taylor versus Andy Hamilton:
The real Phil Taylor didn’t seem to turn up last night against Ian White, but maybe a sterner test against Andy Hamilton will get The Power to turn the afterburners on.
Andy Hamilton impressed against Mark Webster, he fired in plenty of maximums and just seemed comfortable on the Blackpool stage, yet again. He’s gone well here and he’s doing so again. While his tournament average isn’t that great, his 95.62 against Webster was 4 points better than Taylor’s average last night.
I don’t know what happened to Taylor last night. He claims it’s not the new darts, and his first round average would suggest that maybe he’s right. that being said, it wasn’t vintage Taylor and he’s going to have to play a lot better to get past an in-form Hamilton.
Like the previous match, the outsider is a bit of value, but I can see Taylor scraping a win, just like his first round match against Mervyn King. However, I think Hamilton will beat Taylor… on the most 180s. Taylor has hit 3 in his two matches, Hamilton has hit 10, and a price of Evens looks good, as he really hammered the treble 20 against Mark Webster and he’ll need to do it again if he wants to get past Taylor. Plus, Taylor, like Michael van Gerwen, is more likely to go for cover shots as soon as the first dart is lying wrong.
Andy Hamilton to score more 180s than Phil Taylor: Evens @ 888sport.
Recommend: 2.5 units.
Michael van Gerwen versus James Wade:
The two men with the highest tournament average face off in what I think it going to be a classic. It’s a great way to end the night.
What else can be said about Michael van Gerwen’s performances this week? He’s hit a 9-darter, he’s got the highest tournament average and he’s got a highest checkout of 141. He got past Simon Whitlock with some ease, and then put in the performance of the tournament to get past a quality performance from Steve Beaton. Nothing seems to be scaring him at the moment, and he’s bringing his floor form onto the TV stage, which some players struggle to do.
James Wade has impressed in his two matches, doing more than enough to get through comfortably. Yes, he’s not really been pushed, but that’s thanks to just how well he’s been playing. A tournament average of 98.48, a highest checkout of 158 and 7 maximums is further proof of how well he’s playing. Wade generally grinds out wins, but he’s been playing well and it’s not been his usual grinding performances. But he’ll have to be at his best tonight.
Again, there’s value to be had in the outright market, as Michael van Gerwen looks too big to me. He’s playing unbelievable darts and is brimming with confidence. He’s battered in a 9-darter and beat a man, Steve Beaton, who averaged over 100. Someone with that confidence is a bit of value at 9/5.
Michael van Gerwen to beat James Wade: 9/5 @ Betfair.
Recommend: 2 unit.
Some value to be had tonight, and I think the bookies haven’t priced the outright markets too well, especially Michael van Gerwen, as I think he’s the player the rest of the field are fearing at the moment. We’ve got two more days to go in the World Matchplay, and 3 matches left to bet on. We’ll be going into the weekend with a healthy profit, but let’s make it even healthier.
Enjoy the darts, enjoy the Olympic opening ceremony (which you’ll watch the highlights of, as the darts is on!) and happy betting!
